Democrats limit advertising to 14 states

[fujiyama]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apelection_story.asp?category=1131&slug=Kerry%20Bush%20Strategy

WASHINGTON -- After months of pledging to contest President Bush in every region of the country, Sen. John Kerry and Democrats are limiting television advertising to 14 battleground states as the fall campaign opens.

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The shift bumps GOP-leaning Missouri, Colorado, Arizona and several Southern states off the political playing field - at least for now - and gives Bush reason to consider moving money from some of those states to others that historically trend Democratic.

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-The Kerry campaign has bought time in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and Oregon. Those are the campaign's 10 most competitive states, ranking at the top of Bush's advertising priorities as well.

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Kerry strategist Tad Devine said the campaign had several million dollars in advertising time reserved for Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas, which he called a sign of commitment to those battlegrounds. But the ads aren't scheduled to air until October, if then. No money has been given to TV stations for the October buys.

Virginia wasn't included at all.

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[Kagemusha]

1. Well they spent $ early because of Swiftboat stuff.

Easy explanation

[Only Me]

2. Wonder why Virginia would be excluded? They must think it's going

to go republican like always. I had hoped this election
year might be different.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

3. Why do they think WV is more winnable than Missouri or CO, which

both have a lot of EV's and are dead even in polling? :shrug:

[tritsofme]

6. Because their internal polling probably says differently nt

[Leilani]

14. Because West Va is a traditionally Dem state

Colorado is a Repub state, & Missouri leans Repub.

Remember, Missouri is the home of Ashcroft.

W.Va. is the home of Sen.Byrd & Sen. Rockefeller.

[WVhill]

15. The real reason they're advertising in WV is

The Democratic gubernatorial candidate will absolutely win his race and he's willing to appear with Kerry and Edwards every time they come to the state. The thought is maybe Kerry can ride his coattails. With Kerry's past gun control position and his vote to extend the AWB it's doubtful it will work.

[Leilani]

16. I realize that gun control is poison in W Va,

but is there enough of a labor vote to help him win?

And what is the economy like?

[WVhill]

17. I don't think labor has the stroke they once did.

Bush did score points putting the tariff on foreign steel until the WTO forced its removal. The big coal mining employeement losses predate Bush. Even in that case union miners have been going back to work. I see regular classified ads for miners due to the higher demand for coal. The rest of the employment picture has always remained about the same whether we're in a recession or not. We have lost a lot of jobs in the chemical industry but that doesn't seem to resonate throughout the state. Kerry will get votes on that around Charleston.

The other issue is I believe most West Virginians support the war in Iraq. West Virginia has always had the highest per capita rate of enlistment in the military. There's something here that goes beyond patriotism. The people get pissed off and they stay that way. I can't believe the intensity of feelings you see in people. When elderly women get cranked up and you don't initiate the conversation, you know something is going on. It must be that Hatfield-McCoy thing.

[ZJoeZ]

22. Bush destoryed Gore in 2000 in WV

which Gore was suppose to carry big. It wasn't particularly close, considering. 51-45 Bush. The gun thing is too difficult there. I think we'd have better luck in states like Navada, Colorado or North Carolina.

[tedoll78]

4. If I were Kerry, I'd be advertising like so:

The Left Coast (CA/OR/WA) seems on pretty solid ground at this point, despite silly media attempts to portray OR & WA as swing states. If anything, I'd lessen TV advertising there and hope that the 527s keep the pressure on. No advertising in CA whatsoever.

The SouthWest? I'd advertise heavily in NV. I'd keep a small level of advertising going in AZ.. just to see what happens in the polling numbers. I'd pull ads from NM and let the 527s take over in keeping it in our column. I'd advertise heavily in CO also.

The Midwest? I'd advertise pretty heavily in IA, MN, MO, & AR. I'd advertise lightly in MI. I'd advertise super-heavily in WI.

The South? Lighten advertising in FL for the next week; they're too busy distracted with hurricanes right now. Advertise in light levels in TN, VA, and NC.. just to see where the polls go.

The NorthEast? Advertise heavily in PA. Lightly in NH. Moderately in WV.

Summary:
heavy --> NV/CO/IA/MN/MO/AR/WI/PA
moderate --> FL/WV
lightly --> OR(?)/WA(?)/AZ/MI/TN/VA/NC/NH

All told, I've come-up with 18 states.. 16 without OR & WA.

As far as timing is concerned, I'd lighten-up on ads right now through Bush's bad two weeks and then put the pressure on once the debates have begun - when even more folks are paying attention.

[fujiyama]

8. I agree with you

for the most part.

Of course you're forgetting one of the most important states of all - OH - this state desrves heavy advertising.

I would push FL into heavy advertising near the end of the month....maybe once the electricity is back up.

I would place AR, WV and NH into moderate...and maybe OR as well, just because it was so close last time.

I would keep the rest as you have it. It seems like PA has tightened as of late. I think Kerry will still win it. I'd keep heavy advertising there.

[LibDemAlways]

9. Kerry should be advertising in

Nevada too. The state has a Dem edge in voter registration and there's been a huge influx of new residents - many of them seniors worried about Social Security and Medicare. The nuclear waste dump issue works against the chimp there, too. I think Kerry could take it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. Perhaps they think they will win Nevada without ads

as for the 10 states chosen- I believe they must think they have a 99% chance of winning all 10. If so then Kerry is the next President.
Even though we are on defense in 6 states from 2000, and Bush only defending 4, it shows where Bush is vulnerable, and where we know we must hold onto the VERY close states to take back the WH.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. Nevada was mentioned in that article, but what's up with Missouri?

"The Democratic National Committee is airing commercials in most of those states to keep Kerry competitive with Bush's large ad budgets. In addition, the DNC is on the air in Maine, Washington state, Nevada and Minnesota. Nevada is a GOP-leaning state Kerry would like to win. The other three, especially dead-even Minnesota, voted Democratic in 2000, and Kerry can't afford to lose them."

I agree with dumping Virginia, and making Colorado and North Carolina less of a priority, but the decision to stay off the air in Missouri this month is puzzling and troubling. We don't want to lose close then hear it could have been had, similar to Ohio in 2000. Clinton won Missouri by double digits in '92 and 6 points in '96. Gore only lost by slightly more than 3 points. Hell, Dukakis blew by only 4 points in '88. The Missouri gov race in 2000 was extremely close, likewise both senate races involving Mrs. Carnahan, a point or two apiece.

[RayOfHope]

31. They're staying off the air but

they also put in 19 new field organizers this week.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. They must have some other metric of "winnability" outside of available

poll data, that is not evident to us. Otherwise I'm not sure I understand the strategy of the picks. They must have some info that states like Missouri and Colorado, which poll dead even, are less winnable than we think? :shrug:

[T Town Jake]

11. I think you're right...

...which is why I don't get into any of the poll-this-poll-that flame wars that have erupted around here lately. The Kerry campaign undoubtedly has "internal" tracking polls that we are not privy to that guide their strategy. All modern big-time campaigns do. I'm pretty confident that they know what they're doing.

[fishface]

7. It's not necessary to spend it every state.

You can spend in neighboring states and the message goes out in the newspapers and on TV that is seen in neighboring states.

I live in an uncontested state but have been deluged with Bush TV ads lying about Kerry.. they're not working so it's satifying that he's pouring money down a rat hole which takes away money he could be using elsewhere. The funny part is he's blowing all that money for a 4 electoral vote state.

[KharmaTrain]

10. This Doesn't Take National Spots Into Account

Also the various 527s that are blitzing virtually every battleground state.

I got a good dose of Miami TV over the weekend and saw as many MoveOn spots as any others...and got me to make yet another donation :evilgrin:.

Plus, remember TV ad rates vary from market to market and that some stations from outside a state work better in reaching an audience than a station inside.

These folks are conserving their bucks for the final weeks...and right be it so. Right now it's still time to get the ground troops knocking on doors and manning phone banks. When the election comes down to weeks and days, then targetted TV buys will be very important and having a solid flow of cash to make the expensive last minute buys could be very critical in Ohio or Missouri or even Colorado or Arizona.

[flaminbats]

12. Even Alaska could be won with a little advertising..

the only reason Repukes still win it is because only they campaign there. It would just take a few campaign stops and television ads to change the tide there.

[iwantmycountryback]

19. Maybe Kerry could campaign there with Knowles

If both Knowles and Kerry win there that would be huge. Of course Knowles and Kerry probably disagree on a bunch of stuff because Knowles is very moderate.

[fujiyama]

23. It probably

wouldn't be too practical. Bush won it huge the last time and I don't remember the last time a democrat won the state.

Plus I don't think it's worth too many electoral votes. It wouldn't be worth campaigning or spending $ there.

I do think Knowles has a chance there. I really hope him and Salazaar win their states. It would be great if dems could take back the senate.

[DaveSZ]

20. Nevada Kerry can win

He should run ads there - especially about yucca.

[ZJoeZ]

21. Umm....

Did anybody notice that of the 10 most competitive states, only 4 are Bush states, and 2 of them wouldn't win it for us by themselves?

So, basically, is what they are saying, is that we need to win Florida or Ohio and not lose any other Gore state.

This either means they are campaigning all wrong, or it means...

God, I don't even want to contemplate what it means.

[BillZBubb]

25. I think winning either Florida or Ohio is imperative.

It's almost impossible to get a scenario where Kerry wins without at least one or the other. He could win without them, but it would be a miracle of Biblical proportions.

Ohio isn't looking too good right now. It's hard to say how the storms have affected Florida. Shrub has been able to throw money at them, so one would think that buys him some votes.

We are in a dogfight.

[fujiyama]

26. To win

without FL and OH, he would have to win NV and WV - that's on top of EVERY one of the states Gore won. Doable, but difficult.

I'm starting to think this is coming back down to FL. I think aside from the possibility of fraud, Kerry has a good chance of winning there. I think the demographic changes are in Kerry's favor...but we all know that Jeb is in charge of things there and there are problems with Diebold as well.

[Poiuyt]

24. 527s and the DNC will probably still advertise in those states

And Kerry might reevaluate after some more polls are taken.

[last_texas_dem]

27. I think not focusing on AR is a mistake...

I think the campaign may be missing an opportunity in not focusing more heavily on Arkansas. America Coming Together has still not opened an office there, last I checked, and now Kerry is cutting back on running ads there. But look at the polls:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/arkansas.html

Kerry has been consistently only one or two points behind Shrub and once led.

I know AR is only six electoral votes, but I think the campaign may be making a mistake by focusing too heavily on OH and FL. Sure, if we carry one of them and hold on to Gore's 2000 states we're in, but if we maintain the Gore 2000 states (and the only ones I'm slightly nervous about holding onto are PA, NM, and WI... maybe I'm being too optimistic) and pick up NH and AR, that's 270 and that's all we need.

I don't know... I guess I just have faith in a state that elected Clinton several times and currently has two Democratic Senators and three out of four of its Reps being Democrat. I don't know that Shrub is putting much of an effort in to it, so I figured with a little work it might be a fairly easy pick-up. I'm obviously no strategist, though, that's just my take.

[fujiyama]

28. You have a point

I think they should put some resources there. It's been very polling very close (but recently has shown Bush with a slightly larger lead - probably the convention bounce).

Maybe they would have put more into it if Clinton was able to campaign more. It's going to be tough for him to campaign much since he'll be recovering.

[tritsofme]

30. Internal polling must show that its not worth it

And their polls are much more reliable than the ones that we see.

[usregimechange]

29. MO, AR, and Virginia shoould get some play too.

Maybe MoveOn or Texans will pick up the slack.