Bush's Convention Bounce Worst Ever for Incumbent President

[joefree1]

by Ruy Teixeira
September 9, 2004

SRBI poll of 1,128 registered voters for Time magazine, released September 3 (conducted August 31–September 2)
Princeton Survey Research poll of 1,008 adults for Newsweek, released September 4 (conducted September 2–3)
Gallup poll of 1,018 adults for CNN/USA Today, released September 6 (conducted September 3–5)

The new Gallup poll, conducted entirely after the GOP convention and therefore the first poll that truly measures Bush's bounce, shows Bush with a very small bounce indeed: 2 points, whether you look at registered voters (RVs) or likely voters (LVs). His support among RVs has risen from 47 percent before to 49 percent after the convention, so that he now leads Kerry by a single point (49-48) rather than trailing by a point.

Note also that Bush's 2-point bounce from his convention (which is defined as the change in a candidate's level of support, not in margin) is the worst ever received by an incumbent president, regardless of party, and the worst ever received by a Republican candidate, whether incumbent or not (see this Gallup analysis for all the relevant historical data). In 2000, Bush received an 8-point bounce. And even his hapless father received a 5-point bounce in 1992.

The poll contains other results that suggest the relative ineffectiveness of the GOP convention.

More ...
http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=183679

I am impressed how hard the rethuglicans have to work to like this guy.

[geek tragedy]

1. Has Gallup gone from being a tool of Bush to the Gospel Truth?

I think the dust won't settle for another week or two regarding the polls.

aWol is breaking and 9/11's anniversary approaches.

[michigandem2]

2. yeah and we won't hear about it on the news

it will not be reported about the "new poll numbers" like the 11pt bounce was...good greif...they were so excited...it was laughable...

[klook]

3. You mean...you mean...we're NOT DOOMED??!

Could it be there is HOPE after all??

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. cbs says the opposite

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/09/opinion/polls/main642108.shtml

[rumguy]

5. DOH!