Sam Wang's message: TURNOUT! Kerry win prob now 47%

[swag]

From Prof. Sam Wang's statistical analysis:

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

Results current as of Thursday, September 9, 2004 (click here for trends over time)

The median electoral vote count for Kerry has dropped below 270 for the first time since June. The key event here was the probability of a Pennsylvania win dropping below 50%. Is the Bush post-convention bounce complete? It's hard to say, but considering what a radical effect comes from a 1-point swing in either direction, whenever the probability is in the 5%-95% range this election is about turnout. This is the situation in which your efforts mean the most!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Turnout will always be the story for us

it's a given that we must do the max.

[yellowcanine]

2. Based on one likely voter poll where Bush up by 1% in PA

This is such bullshit - "likely voter" means the registered voter numbers were massaged according to 2000 voting data - this is not 2000, so this means squat.

[Mr Blond]

3. GET INVOLVED!!

Register a voter, take a voter to the polls, put a bumber sticker on a stop sign (On of my favs), walk the streets, set up a table at your local Wal-Mart (Get permission, of course), ANYTHING!!

Then the polls don't matter. It's that simple!!

Thank you!! :)