WashPo-ABC Aug 30 poll had race dead even - today's poll says what?

[papau]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_083004.html

Washington Post-ABC News Poll: Elections 2004
Monday, August 30, 2004

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone August 26-29, 2004 among 1,207 randomly selected adults nationwide, including 945 self-identified registered voters. Margin of sampling error for overall results and for registered voters is plus or minus three percentage points. Fieldwork by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

3. (and 3a) If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, would you vote for (George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans), (John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats), or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independents? Which candidates are you leaning toward?

Net Leaned Vote, Likely Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 48 1 * 1 0 2
8/1/04 47 49 2 * 1 0 1
7/25/04 50 46 2 * 1 * 1
Net Leaned Vote, Registered Voters:

Other Neither Would No
Bush Kerry Nader (vol.) (vol.) not vote op.
8/29/04 48 47 2 * 1 * 2
8/1/04 44 50 2 * 1 1 2
7/25/04 48 46 3 * 1 * 1
7/11/04* 46 46 4 1 2

[lancdem]

1. Damn

When I first read this I thought it said today's poll had the race even.

[papau]

2. Rumor has it that ABC has bad poll with error that exceeds the MOE

This happens 5 times out of 100 polls.

Indeed that seems the only explanation for the rumor'd result of Bush 52%, Kerry 43%, Nader 2% (LV).