Folks don't ignore this snippet about ABC/WP Poll

[sonicx]

kerry is behind, but...

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/bush_campaign_poll_040909.html

snip

The fact that underlying views have changed means they can change again. After the Democratic convention there were eight points more Democrats than Republicans among likely voters; today, there are six points more Republicans than Democrats. Party allegiance has been +3 or +4 Democratic in exit polls since 1988; Kerry would gain ground by moving the alignment back to its Election Day norm. But shifting party allegiance is not his only problem: He's losing 12 percent of Democrats to Bush, twice Bush's loss of Republicans to Kerry.

snip

after our convention, they oversampled dems. after their convention, they over sampled repubs. Kerry is still behind, just not by double digits.

[patdem]

1. Who said they 'oversampled Dems' after our convention????

do you have a link or proof???

[sonicx]

2. it says right there in the bold.

dems don't lead voting by 8 points, more like 4 or 5.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. That's what each campaign's internals showed

Bush up by 4. - per Josh Marshall

[sonicx]

12. that's true but

i was talking about voter turnout in the US. in 2000, dems accounted for 39% of votes, repubs did 35. this year may be a tad closer (38-35) but not by much. abc has too many repubs in its poll.

[patdem]

9. 8 points more Democrats?? what is Points???

I want numbers...not points...what do points mean??? IT IS A MEANINGLESS WORD!! We saw the # of Republicans questioned...this is a trash crap poll!!!

[sonicx]

15. democrats vote 3 or 4 percent more than repubs

the post-DNC poll had 8 percent. way too high.

[cornermouse]

3. Something else you better not ignore.

The republican attempt to get rosters of the church members and presumably their visitors as well. This is a very real problem for Kerry.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. the cocaine stories will take care of that. eom

[cornermouse]

18. Not with a lot of them, it won't.

All he has to do is say that he has repented his ways, God has forgiven him and they'll forget all about it. And he won't have to prove it.

[dennis4868]

4. He's losing 12 percent of Democrats

This is where the problem is right now for Kerry....i really thought the dem party was all united coming out of the primaries....and now there are actually dems supporting a man who lied to us into a war, had no post war plans (and ignored all plans that were presented to him) and it is causing so many deaths, outs a cia agent, does not enforce the environmental laws, lied to NYers about the air quality right after 911, outed a double al qaeda agent for political gan, ignored warnings before 911, etc....how could this motive dems to vote for Bush?

It is hard for me to understand how anyone could vote for Bush, but trying to figure how a true dem could vote for Bush is not understandable.....really!

[lancdem]

5. I think that number will change

[sonicx]

7. i agree,

dems should ALL be supporting Kerry. but i believe there are still some zell miller types around.

[hippiegranny]

8. this is what I don't believe

Where are they getting this? If anything, TONS of Repubs are pissed at Bush. I know of and have heard of NO Dems who prefer the l'il liar over Kerry. Yanno, they just JUST SAY this shit and never have to show where it came from, which leads me to believe they just make it up. They need a close race in order to sell papers, airtime, etc... not to mention, when the cheating begins they've made it look close the whole time. These are the top 1%-ers calling the shots here, protecting their ill-gotten investment.

[DarthDem]

10. Not a Realistic Number

Sorry, but there's no way that only 88% of Dems are voting for Kerry. That number will be about 94-97% on election day.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

16. You realize there's a connotation attached to your name, right?

The people from another rival forum like to send their kind over here and use the handle "Darth" in their screen names to signify each other. I'm not saying you are or that you aren't, but you may or may not want to reconsider keeping it, or you might get a few dirty looks around here. As it is, however, welcome to DU! :grouphug:

[DarthDem]

20. Yup

Although I've reregistered, I've had this screenname for about two and a half years, at least; I just didn't post much until recently. Yes, I'm well aware of what you're speaking about - - I believe I predated it. In any event, if anyone thinks I'm a Puke in disguise, they're welcome to read my posts and think so, but they'll be hard-pressed to come up with anything that supports their views. I like my name and I'm keeping it. Thanks for the welcome. :)

[wildflower]

13. I think it has to be fear

I don't know what else could move them that much.

-wildflower

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. What about people reporting themselves as Dems for the poll, just to skew

the numbers? I'm sure there are plenty of those.

[lancdem]

17. How is Bush doing among independents in this poll?

[sonicx]

19. bush lead unfortunately, but there are no internals to see by how much. nt

[lancdem]

21. It has to be by a small margin

because the oversampling of Repukes and the fact more Dems will vote for Bush than Repubs for Kerry in this poll would probably account for almost all the 9-point margin.

[sonicx]

22. yeah, and that pisses me off

dems voting for Bush. :puke:

i've met very few who are voting for bush, but apparently they are out there.