Great News in New State Polls Out Today - OH, NC, CO, VA, Senate

[indyjones1938]

From: www.electoral-vote.com

Bush's EV lead has dropped to 254 versus Kerry's 252. A new round of SurveyUSA polls out today (very accurate, my personal favorite).

Kerry has moved ahead in Colorado by 1% and now holds a 10% lead in California. This is the third poll in a row that has shown Colorado essentially tied or with Kerry in the lead. Kerry can take this state. The previous round of polling the other day showed that New Mexico, Wisconsin and Minnesota have all gone true blue. Bush's leads have fallen in Ohio (only a 3% lead), Virginia (3%) and, surprisingly, North Carolina (4% lead). John Edwards has been stumping a lot in his home state and the polls are just beginning to reflect it. This is bad news for Bush. He's going to be forced to divert more money to Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina - states that were supposedly in his "base." Nevada and Florida are exactly tied. It seems more likely every day that Nevada, Florida and Colorado are going to be the fierce battlegrounds of 2004.

But the most interesting news comes from the new Senate polls, which show Democrats moving ahead in key states including Oklahoma. The votemaster is now projecting a Democratic majority in the Senate (counting Jeffords as a Democrat).

The most important lesson out of this, I guess, is to ignore the media spin. They would have us believe that Kerry and Edwards are singing their swan song, but it just isn't so.



No matter what anyone says, this election is still a dead heat. It's 50/50 in the popular vote and the electoral vote, no matter which way you cut it, and no matter how much the spinmasters try to spin it.

[tom_paine]

1. We need some good news!

[in_cog_ni_to]

2. A 50/50 election

is how they can steal the election with the electronic voting machines. The perfect set up. We cannot afford a close election. If polls continue to be close.....it's an open door for the slimeballs to work their magic on the machines. Hack away people!

[fujiyama]

3. I'm looking

for a link to the CO poll. I haven't found it. I'm wondering if it's by Zogby International or Zogby Interactive.

Zogby apparently had an OR poll showing Kerry up by 10 points...That too it wasn't the interactive thing, so it's more reliable. While Kerry may or may not be up by ten points there, it's certainly good news.

After looking at these SUSA numbers, I'm feeling a bit more encouraged.

[Catch22Dem]

4. Does anyone here believe

Missouri is that lopsided? I don't even think the dude at electoral-vote.com believes it. I like the way he does things though. No spin, just numbers.

[terrya]

5. Excellent news! I always thought we can take back the Senate.

This just looks tremendous. Man, this news...and Obama winning MEGA HUGE...a Democratic Senate will be very welcome again. :-)

[FlaIndie]

6. If Bowles gets further ahead in NC Senate polls...

what are the chances K/E can pull off a squeaker in there since those who are liberal and live in NC, who'd normally sit at home, get out and vote because they didn't originally think K/E would win and want Bowles in the Senate?

Any time the voter turnout is high, Democrats win.

[indyjones1938]

7. North Carolina

North Carolina is a good possibility for a southern squeaker. So are Arkansas and Virginia, but the Kerry campaign seems to have written them off for some reason. Maybe unfavorable internal polling? In any case it was reported the other day that the campaign plans to air advertising in North Carolina.

Regarding some other states, I don't believe for a minute that Missouri is "strong Bush." It's definitely in play, and if things ever got really bad here you can be sure that Gephardt would start campaigning on behalf of Kerry. And I'm sure Pennsylvania will go blue. Like Missouri, it's a Gallup poll which is biased in favor of the GOP.

The really good news out today is that Bush's lead in Ohio has fallen. Now it's Kerry's turn to seize the momemtum.

[mrgorth]

8. PA CAN'T go for Bush

I'm doing everything I can in the Philly burbs. We HAVE to take PA and 1 of FL or OH. DAMN! Get out there!

[underpants]

9. Big planning and coordination meetings in Va. on Sunday

I know it may sound a little late in the game but from the turnout at the houseparties I have been to and heard about.........Yes Virginia there ARE Democrats in this state.

Nova
Hampton
Richmond
Abindon
Harrisonburg

[spooky3]

13. you are right--wish we could get this message out!

VA is definitely in play.

[HFishbine]

10. 4% in NC ?!?!?!?

Most excellent!!! Bush won NC in 2000 by 13%. There's been an incredible errosion of support. I hope the K/E campaign doesn't give up on us.

[dumpster_baby]

11. I hear some CA Democrats are moving temporarily to NV just to vote

And it would not take money of those California Dems (what are there, 33 million people in CA, most of whom are Dems) to slip over the county line and get a cheap motel room or rent a mobile home collectively for a month or so, just to be able to vote.

[spooky3]

12. thanks, I had to skip the front page of today's WaPo as it made my

head spin with its poll, spun as Bush's "strengthening" his lead, and accusing CBS of forgeries.

[skooooo]

14. Still..what happened to Tennessee???

I thought for sure it was going blue.

[Doosh]

15. finally, good news!

:)

[yellowcanine]

16. Wow - once again it is Florida - as things stand now - wouldn't it be a

hoot and sweet revenge if it stayed this way and Kerry took Florida to win by a hair in EV while losing the popular vote by 500,000? (Nevada doesn't have enough EVs to matter in this scenario). Now understand - I don't believe Kerry is going to lose PA and I don't want him to - nor do I want it to be that close - but part of me (my evil, revenge seeking side) wants this result.

[bigtree]

17. This looks more like the campaign that I expected.

Late RNC delayed the turnaround and makes it seem hopelessly close to the election, but these polls should start to reflect the reality that we all know. Bush is toast.

[cthrumatrix]

18. this is great news

[Nashyra]

19. Please remember that all these polls are 2000 voters

We have registered so many more Dems and we have an "awakened" base. This was even on CNN yesterday Surprise surpruse.

[rndmprsn]

20. thanks...

i needed to see this map!

[quaoar]

21. I thought this was interesting fromelectoral-vote.com

Important Senate news today. Several new polls there have changed the outlook. Just going by the spreadsheet (i.e., the current poll numbers), the Senate will be split 50-50 as a result of a new poll in Oklahoma that now puts Brad Carson ahead of Tom Coburn (the former obstretrician who has admitted to performing abortions but now says abortionists should be executed). In addition, the spreadsheet says the Republicans will win the Louisiana seat, but since no Republican has ever been elected to the Senate by the people of Louisiana since direct elections of senators began in 1914, my best guess at this point is that the Democrats will actually have a majority in the Senate (counting Jeffords as a Democrat). This scenario was unthinkable 6 months ago.