New Zogby Poll has * leading Kerry by 4%(with nader)

[sonicx]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=863

zerry went down 1% since last poll

the first chart has the names in the wrong column, btw. switch em.

<< One week after accepting the Republican party nomination and delivering a stump speech focused on the “war on terrorism”, President George W. Bush moves ahead of Senator John Kerry by four points (46%-42%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1018 likely voters was conducted Wednesday through Thursday (September 8-9, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1%. >>

without nader...

<< President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney hold a two-point lead over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and North Carolina Senator John Edwards in the head-to-head presidential ticket match-up (47%-45%). * No change since last month’s polling. >>

[WI_DEM]

1. bottom line is Nader is not going to get 4%

he isn't going to be on as many state ballots. He got 2.8% in '00 and will be lucky to get 1% this time. Also looks like lots of undecideds and we can win them over.

But 15% of liberals are voting for Bush!! Cm'on you can't be a liberal and vote for Bush. Some people are toying with Zogby. But it is clear that Kerry has to get some enthusiasm going in the AA community. Zogby points out that 10% of AA are unsure of who they will vote for. Gore won in '00 becuz the AA was strong and turnout was high. Kerry is going to need it as well.

[sonicx]

2. i say less than 2% for nader

he's out of a lot of states and the ones he's in, people will hopefully consider that happened in 2000...

[featherman]

3. This is pretty good

August was always gonna be a big month for Bush so I don't think we are in very bad shape considering. I like the "disapproval" "wrong direction", "someone new" numbers and the team v. team numbers. I agree that Nader will be 1%+ but others may be another 1+ or more. Libertarian and Constitution will pick up some disaffected GOP. Kerry has time to get the DEM share back up to match the GOP share. I've seen a recent +2 for Kerry among INDs. I don't like the Catholic numbers, obviously. But this is pretty good overall and a good base for Kerry to make his closing surge. My benchmark is to be within 3 points around 9/15 and sprint on home.

[jefferson_dem]

4. A two-point spread is tolerable. Bozo's job approval is only 47%! And -

this little note is fascinating to consider.

"As part of the Zogby-O’Leary Report Red and Blue States Monitor, in the Blues States, those won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 47% of support, as compared to Bush 40%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 51%, while Kerry receives 38% support."

Chimp-boy's disproportional support in the red states (as compared to Kerry's in tbe blue ones) could really throw off the overall head-to-head numbers.

So...we must

1. pay much more attention to those state-by-state numbers, of course.

2. consider for a moment that the electoral vote - popular vote inversion could work the other way this time. Kerry could win the EC but lose the popular. Payback time!

[Zynx]

5. That isn't bad. I can take that.

[sonicx]

6. summary of good news and bad news...

good news, kerry's only down by 4, even better without nader. bush's approval and reelect are below 50. kerry leads in major issues like econmy, iraq, education, and health care.

bad news: kerry support among democrats/liberals is low, kerry is way behind in terrorism issue. many undecided blacks. behind in catholic votes. low blue state lead.

[tedoll78]

7. I see some good news in your "bad news"...

if Kerry's support among Dems is low, he has plenty of room to make-up in the polls. If he goes up among Dems/liberals by just a few percentage points, we suddenly have a tie race.

And since this is going to be the Chimp's best week of polling, we also need to remember that this is his ceiling. It's all downhill from here for him..

[sonicx]

8. that's true, it's possible that...

dems and liberals will get alot more excited by mid october and slide into kerry's side.

[dennis4868]

9. can someone explain to me.......

why a dem/liberal vote for Bush? Did the jews vote for Hitler?

[sonicx]

11. not bure about liberals, but there are still...

a lot of zell miller types out there, i guess.

[lancdem]

12. I agree

the Dems will come home to Kerry.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Would we rather have lagging support among dems or independents?

Neither is "good" but i'll take it as it stands. The independents are the ones to really watch. They were in our guy's corner when he had the lead. Many wayward Dems will come home come Nov. 2.