AP/Ipsos Poll: LV Bush 51% Kerry 46%; RV Bush 51% 43%

[tritsofme]

AP Poll: Bush Holds Lead Over Kerry

Among those most likely to vote, the Republican ticket of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney holds a lead of 51 percent to 46 percent over Kerry and Sen. John Edwards, with independent Ralph Nader receiving 1 percent.

The AP-Ipsos-Public Affairs poll showed minorities, urban residents and other Democratic voters unified behind Kerry, as would be expected in the fall. But he lost ground in virtually every other demographic group: lower educated voters, suburbanites, rural voters, the middle class, married couples and baby boomers.

Many voters seemed to be retreating to Bush's camp after flirting with the Democrat, whose nominating convention focused almost exclusively on his Vietnam War record. For example, those in the GOP-leaning South narrowly favored Kerry in early August, but now support Bush 58 percent to 38 percent.

Among all registered voters, Bush-Cheney led the Democratic ticket 51 percent to 43 percent, a modest bounce in support since early August, when Kerry-Edwards led 48-45 percent.

<snip>
For the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination, the AP-Ipsos poll suggests that a majority of voters approve of the president's job performance - 52 percent. The lifts him out of the danger zone for incumbents.
<snip>
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040910/D8510QA81.html

Strange that bush's numbers go up with registered voters, usually its the opposite.

[mourningdove92]

1. A poll of only 1200 people?

Puleese

[sonicx]

2. 1200 is a typical poll number, actually. nt

[calico1]

3. They should say which states were polled

and what percentage from each state. That would be a better indication.

[tritsofme]

4. Only 1200? lol

That's actually a quite large number of registered voters to be interviewed.

Come on, this can't be our response to unfavorable polls.

[Fionn]

5. That's a bigger sample that usual

And again, confirms that we can't ignore the elephant in the living room.

Were this elelction held tommorrow, we wouldn't just lose.

We'd lose big.

[saracat]

6. Fuck! Why are all the polls doing this?

Oh, I know why, I'm just disgusted.And the more they print this ,the more people will give up.This is manipulative crap!

[Renew Deal]

7. This is bizarre.

Kerry loses on registered voters. How is that possible?

[tritsofme]

8. The only thing I can think

Is that the likely voter model favored Democrats somehow, but we'd have to look at older AP/Ipsos polls to know this; or the Democrats in the sample were just more enthusiastic that the goppers.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. It's not. Their method sucked obviously. eom

[Frodo]

15. Second time I've seen that. It doesn't seem to make sense.

[liberalpragmatist]

9. Typically, we do better in Registered Voter numbers

That's kind of odd.

anyway, the race isn't over yet.

[WI_DEM]

10. really this isn't that much different than Zogby which has Bush up by 4

This poll has Bush up by 5--yet everyone is out to discredit this poll while when the Zogby numbers were posted most people were jumping for joy, "hey this isn't that bad", ect.

I think Kerry is down 3-5 points, which isn't devastating. Kerry has plenty of time and opportunities to catch up.

[sonicx]

11. yeah, this poll is about in line with zogby and fox.

the RV number is odd tho.

kerry has long way to go, regardless.

[papau]

13. True - but the RV is very odd - and their 2000 results sucked - so I

would not worry too much.

[jfalchion]

12. Catholics?

[NJCher]

16. Here's what it is

First, the number of people who say they are republican or Democrat is fluid. People like you and I know we're Democrats but there are others who don't identify that strongly with either repub or Dem.

Consequently, around the time of the Dem convention, many (including those polled) said they were Dem. Now that the repub convention is the latest, people say they are repub.

This doesn't mean they are going to stay republican. It has to do with familiarity and top-of-mind awareness.

Wait another three weeks or so and see how the polls look.

For further information on this phenomenon, watch for a link that I'll post tomorrow. It's an interview with a couple pollsters who explain the methods and the phenomenon.


Cher

[TexasSissy]

17. Remember we're still in the BOUNCE!

It sure is discouraging. But let's remember that we're still in The Bounce period with a war-time incumbent who was lower in the polls, and therefore had more of a margin to increase!

We will know more of the TRUE head-to-head match by the end of next week, I should think. Let's hope it improves, even if only slightly.