Who else here thinks Kerry hasn't a snowball's chance in hell?

[Cronus Protagonist]

...of losing in a fair election?

1/ Gore won the last time around.

2/ Very few, if any, Gore voters will vote for Bush.

3/ Plenty of Bush voters will not vote for him again.

4/ Lots of new voters registered specifically to kick Bush out.


It's as simple as that, folks. We can't lose in a fair election.

Note that I said "fair election" and I said that because I'm expecting rolling blackouts in swing states in Democratic leaning districts, designed to cheat the election. All they have to do is cause the voting machines to cycle power when there's long lines outside - it takes several minutes, sometimes hours to get them back online again.

I think the rolling blackouts were practices for this election. I hope to be proven wrong, but I think Democratic leadership needs to address the issue of possible disenfranchisement and dirty and/or illegal tactics during the election itself - I see these as more likely to cause an election loss than any amount of advertising the other side can muster.

What do you think?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. I don't think anything is beyond this group. They are violent.

[StClone]

4. Let em be violet for all I care

We must fight the hair-pulling fascists.

[politicat]

26. As in Violet Beauregarde? Violet, you're turning violet, Violet!!

EOM....

Pcat

[NMDemDist2]

2. agreed, these polls are goofy

but what I can't understand is the Bush bumperstickers I see every day.

It is beyond me who ANYONE could even consider voting for him at all :shrug:

[Cronus Protagonist]

5. Polls are filler for slow news days and used as ticklers for other progs

That's all they're useful for, filler and discussion topics. They mean NOTHING at all. Not one thing.

You might be a Republican if...
http://cronus.com/quiz

Commentary by a Republican...
http://cronus.com/republican

The REAL Republican Platform...
http://cronus.com/platform

Bush's Illustrated Resume
http://cronus.com/bushresume

Isn't That Strange?
http://cronus.com/oil

:)

[blondeatlast]

15. It's the locality. At last I'll admit ZW may be onto something,

bt I don't think it's the heat. I think the lack of humidity starves their brain cells.

[Placebo]

3. One Word: DIEBOLD.

'nuff said.

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. FAIR...key word.

Since the media is showing KKKRove's polls, stealing the election will be the order of the day come Nov.2 They have set it up to look close so when they DO steal it, no one will be shocked. They are going to steal this election......WHY have the Dems not stopped the use of the Electronic Voting Machines...is what "I" want to know. They had 4 damn years to stop it.

[Cronus Protagonist]

8. I like that Michael Moore's going to have monitors in Florida

But monitors don't prevent the election being stolen. The Democratic party needs fast-response lawyers with full legal teams in every state, some may need several teams. They need to be prepped with legal documents to force polling places to stay open if the lines are long, power disruptons, etc.

I think we also need technical monitors checking outside major Diebold and ES&S locations looking for WiFi activity, etc.

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[blondeatlast]

18. Working Assets is teaming with Mother Jones in a drive for

poll monitors, and MoveOn is also running a poll monitor drive.

They are particularly interested in getting lawyers and clergy...

http://www.workingforchange.com/electionprotection/index.cfm?mktcode=EI001

[Cronus Protagonist]

22. I truly hope that every precinct with more than 1000 voters

...has a resident lawyer and a motorbike dispatch unit to get to a judge FAST.

[LiberalFighter]

24. Cell phone - Cell phone - Cell phone - Cell phone

The most critical tool for the election!!

[Cronus Protagonist]

25. True. Every poll watcher needs to have a working phone

Who are they going to call? That's the problem. I heard of Republicans paying a phone soliciting firm to call the a Democratic support line thousands of times during the election, rendering it useless.

We need anticipate and plan for these kind of events.

[LiberalFighter]

56. Don't need to use the headquarter phone...

Setup the county with 2 or more cell phone numbers for the Response Team.

In addition, with minor problems include numbers to the Election Board or other appropriate solution sites.

[in_cog_ni_to]

53. I know nothing about computers.

IF the voting machines are being hacked, is there a way to know? Is that what you mean by wifi activity? I do know wifi has "something" to do with wireless technology. Can technical monitors pick up on the hacking activity????

Yeah, I don't think that eyeballs at the polls will do much to prevent the machine hacks. :(

[LisaLynne]

7. Back in 2000,

I said there was no way Bush would win. Let's face it -- he didn't. Same thing here. As you said, in a fair election, I think Kerry's got it. But ...

[JackDragna]

9. A rebuttal of your arguments.

1. Yes, Gore won the last time around. Unfortunately, John Kerry is not Al Gore. Although Gore ran a pretty vanilla campaign, he had a lot of good feelings left over from Clinton. Kerry is still struggling to get his image out.

2. Few Gore voters will vote for Bush, but we run the risk of many in the population not turning out to vote due to a high amount of partisan rancor. Any factor which suppresses voter turnout hurts Democrats, as there are more registered Dems than Republicans, but Dems are also less loyal in terms of going to the polls regularly.

3. I simply don't buy your third assertion. There seems to be a lot of this going around on DU - "Well, I know conservative so-and-so and they said they're really mad at Bush!" The sort of people who voted for Bush the first time around will vote for him again. Polls show registered Republicans identify strongly with Bush right now. Even if 5% of all Republicans defected to another candidate, Bush would be fine, as he holds commanding leads in all the state he's projected to win.

4. No one has yet to produce any numbers on new voters, but considering the popularity the president enjoys right now, it'd have to be an awfully high amount of Democrats to matter. New leftists aren't the only new voters out there.

Bottom line: the election, even without all the Diebold nonsense, is looking like a Bush landslide unless Kerry changes his campaign tactics. He probably has dirty tricks up his sleeves if it gets close again, but at this point, Bush is rolling Kerry up and can probably go on cruise control.

[Cronus Protagonist]

11. *plonk*

:)

[johan helge]

13. According to these sites, Kerry is ahead

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

or running neck and neck with Bush:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

[Cronus Protagonist]

16. Welcome to DU and don't waste your time on these people

No point - reason and facts just get in the way of their thinking - just hit the sleeping user while viewing their posts and you'll be good to go.

:)


BTW - thanks for the Princeton link - damn fine and objective analysis there.

[GaryL]

20. Popularity?

A 48% positive rating? What crap. The only time this idiot tops 50% is in heavily repug weighted polls. It's mindless spew like this that make me stay (and post) mainly with TT. Keeps out the riff-raff.

[Cronus Protagonist]

21. You called it

The whole post reeks of something I don't think many at DU will tolerate much longer.

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[The Ref]

10. Tin foil time

What? You presume Bush'll cheat, so you're asking why bother.

Rolling blackouts in November? Maybe a crash like the Northeast. Come to think about it... a blackout would likely hurt urban areas worst, wouldn't it? It'd shut down the subways, while the rural folks drove to the polls. Geez, he'd be sure to carry Pennsylvania and maybe even Maryland if a blackout hit!

Yet another reason to insist on old-fashionned mechanical voting machines!

[Cronus Protagonist]

12. I don't see why we can't use a pen and paper

Like they do in Canada and Great Britain. And you can count them over and over again until you get it right, so they're not only low-tech, cheap and reliable, they're damn near indisputable!

[irancontra]

14. you forgot

JOE-MENTUM was on the ticket... not only was he of a certain faith that doesn't resonate well in the south but he was extremely bad at the debates AND he and Gore STILL won. SO I'm with ya.

[Cronus Protagonist]

17. true dat

I forgot all about him, and now, if you don't mind, I'd like to continue... :)

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

[shraby]

19. A power blackout would also

disable all the electronic voting machines...it could also possible erase what has already been put in them. (I think, someone correct me if I'm wrong on the erase thing.

[Skarbrowe]

23. I think it will be stolen again.

That simple. Plus, Kerry hasn't lit any fires under people like a few of my family members that are willing to not vote for Bush. My cousin, who happens to be a teacher said she would turn to me for guidance and it shocked the heck out of me. After I said a few things about Bush, I realized I didn't have much to say about Kerry.

Problem in a nutshell. For me, it was and is anybody but Bush. For a large number of people Kerry just isn't drawing them in, away from Bush.

Not yet anyway. Kerry needs to have so many more Democrats come out to vote than have ever voted before and still I'm not sure it can keep the election from being stolen again.

The debates are going to be big. Big only in the way the media spins them. The media, which is mostly in the Bush column, and a totally undependable voting system will decide this election.

Having said all of that, I am convinced well over half the voting population of this country wants George W. Bush out of the White House. It just might be impossible to accomplish.

I apologize for the pessimism.

[yardwork]

36. If you don't have much to say about Kerry, please become informed

Go to johnkerry.com and familiarize yourself with his positions.

[Skarbrowe]

52. You're absolutely right, yardwork.

I do know where Kerry stands on several issues and I should have pushed that more to my cousin. I was in my "why do we hate Bush?, let me count the reasons" mode. I get so involved with trying to show all the ways Bush has messed things up when talking to someone who voted for him in 2000, that I forget to say in particulars why Kerry would be better. I'm too blinded by my disgust of Bush as president to make a compelling argument for voting for Kerry. I've got to change that and change it now!

Thanks yardwork, I needed that. :)

[Merlin]

27. So how do you deal with these numbers? I say we're getting whooped.

But we're way to gung ho to permit talk of it.

I'd like to know from you and others on this board -- and I'm a loyal, godam Democrat and a loyal godam DUer for years, so don't give me any shit -- I'd like to know just how the hell you think we are going to win with numbers like this:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20040911/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&printer=1

Since the Democratic National Convention ended in late July, the president has erased any gains Kerry had achieved while reshaping the political landscape in his favor: Nearly two-thirds of voters think protecting the country is more important than creating jobs, and Bush is favored over Kerry by a whopping 23 percentage points on who would keep the United States safe.

...Of those who cited issues, Kerry was favored by 10 percentage points. People making a gut-level choice overwhelming favored Bush, 65-29 percent.

On the question of who can be trusted to protect the country, Bush gained 7 percentage points and Kerry lost the same amount — a 14-point swing. The shift was just as big on decisiveness, with 75 percent assigning that trait to Bush and just 37 percent saying they would use that word to describe Kerry.

[Cronus Protagonist]

28. It's hard to deal with a broken link and no source

But let me guess, it's a Republican wack-job that came up with that interpretation? Did you check the author's background and donations to politicians? What was the methodology used in the polls?

Oh, I forgot, what's the point? The polls are just asswipes for talking heads on TV to increase their ratings and so they don't have to do any real work. There's only one poll that counts, and in that one, Bush is TOAST.

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Merlin]

32. Try it now. If it doesn't work, here's the link to the LBN post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=818135&mesg_id=818135&page=

[johan helge]

37. According to these sites, Kerry is ahead

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-b...

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

or running neck and neck with Bush:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

[autorank]

29. Right on Cronus. Some good news.

The Texas oil interests are not the only powerful faction on the scene. The DC intel community is certainly doing it's share with these treason investigations -- the Franklin deal following the Chalabi scandal. This is real hardball. In addition, the financial community,particularly NY, CHI, and SF/LA are not too happy with the world ready to stop buying our products and using our currency. Oh, and I forgot the retired and active military commanders who think Bushco has sold them out. My question is, can Bush muster even the temporary infrastructure to pull off a national scandal...and if he does, will 'the people' be silent. I seriously doubt it. They may try but they'll pay a huge price.

[shivaji]

30. Very good points....but why is then Kerry lagging in polls?

[Cronus Protagonist]

33. The polls you see on TV and on web sites are just fodder for talking heads

...to regurgitate and chew up like cud so they can fill hours of boring TV in order to sell soap.

If they didn't have poll numbers to talk about, what would they talk about? I'll tell you, the color of the candidates clothes, who the broadcaster would rather have a beer with, and what kind of dog does each candidate remind you of and street interviews with the uneducated about things that they have no knowledge.

Anyone who's conducted an online poll will tell you that the entire methodology is flawed. Telephone polls are no better.

The bottom line is that people lie, people change their minds, and they often don't even understand the question being asked. And rememeber half the population can't process thoughts like the other half, but they're asked the same questions. An intelligent respondent might understand the question, but lie to hide their personal decsions, while a functionally illiterate person might not understand the question, or the nuances therin, but will respond with what he thinks he's supposed to say.

Polls are related to election results in the same way that an annual Super Bowl football pool is related to the result of the game.

In other words, there is no correlation.

[Merlin]

35. Oh, pay no attention to little things like that. Good DUers don't doubt!

You're being disloyal if you raise questions about how the campaign is REALLY going and what the REAL truth is.

Don't you understand? All the polls are just Republican lies. Kerry is breezing to victory. No reason to change course or tighten up or do anything differently.

End of sarcasm.

[Cronus Protagonist]

39. It seems to me you have an axe to grind and lack objectivity

If you think the published polls du jour bear any relation to reality, I say you're not thinking straight. Take a deep breath and quit obsessing over one or two bad polls on one bad day two months before the election day, just for a few minutes.

Take solace in the fact that you're sweating over something that the Kerry campaign already knows about and is handling with a multi-million dollar budget and campaign managers who are WAY more experienced than you or I. They don't want to lose this one. You have to trust that.

Then consider my statements in the initial post. Ask yourself this question, are the facts/results/actual votes from the previous election a better predictor than the polls du jour, which as we know are almost never correct? Of course, you know my answer to that question.

Now, if you were inside the Kerry campaign and your real, internal polls showed some interesting anomalies, I would like to discuss it. But to place any importance or validity on these TV/media pundit polls is to make a big mistake.

The fact of the matter is that the poll results can't make Gore voters vote for Bush, and nothing that Bush can say will sway any more than a handful of them. And Gore won the last time.

When the poll results suggest that a million Gore voters are suddenly going to vote for Bush this time around, I question the polls and you believe them. I think you're wrong and needlessly chicken-lickin' DU on a faulty premise, ergo that the polls are a more accurate predictor than the actual votes cast in the last election.

Every time you see a poll that says Bush has more votes than Kerry, ask yourself this question: "Where did all these new Bush voters come from?" and also "Could that many Gore voters now want to vote for Bush?" You must conclude the polls are in error.

And if you still think polls two months away from the election are anything more than political talk show fodder, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[Merlin]

45. You are so lost in La Mancha!

Do you really believe what you say?:
"I think you're wrong and needlessly chicken-lickin' DU on a faulty premise, ergo that the polls are a more accurate predictor than the actual votes cast in the last election."

Do you really think the returns 4 years ago are more accurate than the polls now about the upcoming election?

You know, there are vastly different circumstances now--including Dumbya's incumbency. And we are bleeding easily-propagandized, frightened Democrats. No, thinking people won't vote Bush. But they are not the problem!

Do you really think the inside of the Kerry campaign is the only place where one must be to be critical of the campaign's approach, or the partys approach?

Do you really think the polls are all wrong? Or momentary? I heard that in all those previous losing campaigns, too. Same exact thing. In Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter2, McGovern, Humphrey. It's a place called denial.

What we must do is find the correct tact to take then bring relentless pressure on the campaign and 527s to take it. That means attacking Bush where he lives. Go after his strengths. That's where he's most vulnerable.

What we must NEVER do is trust that the so-called "Political Pros" in the campaign and in the party and in the 527s know what they are doing. At least half the time they decidedly do not.

[Cronus Protagonist]

48. Yes, I do.

"Do you really think the returns 4 years ago are more accurate than the polls now about the upcoming election?"

Yes. I think I made my point quite clear. As did you regarding your point. By the way, you don't think you're one of the bleeding, easily-propagandized, frightened Democrats of which you speak, do you? It looks like you might be from over here. Perhaps you're a Republican and you can beg off from that characterization - I don't know your personal politics, but you're not exactly working for Kerry's side right now, or you're not doing a very good job of it if you think you are.

I think the actual votes by actual voters is a true, accurate and correct picture of who voted for who in the last election. The people elected Gore. Surely you don't dispute the ballot box?

These people who elected Gore are what we're talking about now. You think their vote is up for grabs and Bush is swooning them with his eloquence, or his simply being an incumbent will sway their votes, or his campaign is winning them over with propaganda, or whatever. I think they have more integrity than you think, and the bluster of poll "results" and campaign rhetoric is just that, rhetoric.

The election isn't about Kerry, or his numbers, it's about Bush - do you want him or do you want to ditch him?

I assert that the people who voted for Gore last time want to ditch him and would put almost anyone in the Whitehouse as an alternative. You think differently. Good luck to you. Keep that valium handy because you're going to need it. The polls are going up. The polls are going down. They're going haywire, and they're going good.. up and down.. margins small and margins large.... Your emotions are tied to that, mine aren't because polls are notoriously a crap shoot at best.

Bush has handpicked right-wing audiences that have to sign loyalty oaths and Kerry has stadiums full of screaming adoring voters. Why sweat a few biased polls?

I'll get worried when I see thousands of people at Bush's events and a handful at Kerry's, but to date, all physical, on the ground metrics indicate Kerry is going to win in a landslide of Bush's disapproval.

So we disagree. Have a nice day, but please keep the anti-Kerry commentary to a minimum, we're trying to win an election here and we don't need people screaming from the rooftops that Kerry's losing.

If you think there's a problem there, send an email or two to Kerry's campaign offices, and do something about it - don't help the other side by sowing the seeds of fear, uncertainty and doubt.

And you're quite right that the Kerry campaign needs to go after Bush's strengths. And these strengths are the right wing echo chamber and the support of the media. We can all do something on that, as can 527's as you pointed out. Let's work on winning and quit whining publicly that we're losing, okay?

Thanks.

[demokatgurrl]

55. Thanks for the buttons-ordered some! n/t

[Cronus Protagonist]

57. Cool - I hope you like them!

...almost everyone does :)

9/11 An Anti-Bush Memorial

http://brainscream.com/MP3/wtc-Roger_Waters_and_Waking_Born-World_Trade_Center_Tribute.mpg

[moondust]

31. Ace in the hole.

New minority voters not covered in polls.

[Cronus Protagonist]

34. True dat

werd.

:)

[jackieforthedems]

38. No, We Can't

But if Kerry does lose, we'll all know that it pays to be friends with Diebold. Never thought about the blackout stuff before - good thinking. It's another REX 84-FEMA tactic, I suppose. All these plans and back-up plans to enforce Martial Law.

[IndianaGreen]

40. I don't know anybody that was polled about the election

so I don't know who the Hell is being polled. I have serious doubts that the polls are anywhere near correct. If I had to depend on anecdotal evidence, I would have to say that everyone I know that voted for Bush in 2000 (with the exception of Mel, the Xtian fundie) are voting for Kerry this year. The people I know that voted for Gore 4 years ago, are voting for Kerry. People that did not vote in 2000, are now going to vote to get rid of Bush.

Does anyone else know of someone that is voting for Bush?

[Philostopher]

42. I know several.

But I doubt very much they've been polled, either. And I know at least as many who are voting for Kerry -- and a few of them haven't voted since '96. In fact, for every person I know that I'm sure is voting for one, I know one I'm sure is voting for the other. My unofficial anecdotal poll is very much like Rasmussen's -- a tie.

Admittedly, I don't know very many completely new voters. I'd still venture a guess that the majority of them (at least in my part of the country) are pissed off at Bush* and registering because they want to vote him out. When the media have pushed the idea, over and over, that the election is 'Bush's to lose,' what motivation would unregistered voters have to get up off their asses on Election Day if they wanted to see Bush* stay in the White House?

[Cronus Protagonist]

43. You support my point perfectly

The polls can't and don't count these people of whom you talk. And again, I refer to the fact that few, if any, Gore voters are going to vote for Bush this time around. It's as simple as that.

[oasis]

41. Absentee ballots. Dems already know who they're voting for. Why wait?

:think:

[mellowinman]

44. MAN! I was gonna flame you ass.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Kerry will win in a landslide.

Na Myoho Renge Kyo

Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.
Kerry will win in a landslide.

[Cronus Protagonist]

47. Heh.

Hare krsna hare krsna krsna krsna hare hare hare rama hare rama rama rama hare hare

:)

[Satchel]

46. I can't see him losing

Yeah, it would seem that he should win handily, but some people are being swayed by the fear-mongering by Bush. Hopefully they'll come around.

[Cronus Protagonist]

49. These people who are being "swayed" - are they,,,

Gore voters? Don't think so. Gore got half a million more votes than Bush in the last election. Put that in the bank.

Any more we can add from swing voters, new voters and disenfranchised "soft" republicans are just icing on the cake.

Enjoy the process. We're going to win.

:)

[George_Bonanza]

50. Great points

There are many dissatisfied Bush voters in 2004. Among the most prominent is the Muslim bloc, who went largely Bush in 2000 but will almost undoubtedly swing to Kerry in 2004. Could there be any Gore voters that go Bush? Maybe, but there won't be a lot. The left-leaning voters that would've have problems with Democrats voted Nader in 2000, and even without them, Gore won by a fairly large margin. This year, most of the Nader voters of 2000 are voting Kerry, which should more than make up for any possible Gore turncoats. Saying that the voter turnout for each candidate will be even is being very generous. Far more people are angry with Bush than with Kerry. Some hardcore Republicans and non-thinking veterans may hate Kerry's guts, but a lot of people are pissed off at Bush's administration. But even if the voter turnout is even, Kerry still gains more than Bush, and the Democrats won in 2000. As long as Kerry holds his own in the debates and watchdogs keep the state ballot counts clean, Kerry should win.

[Dem2theMax]

51. I think that from now on, in order to keep some sanity, in order to

keep my mind clear and focused on the POSITIVE, in order to not let the constant 'woe is me, Kerry is going to lose, Kerry is in trouble, Kerry is wrong, the Polls are saying * is leading, blah blah blah,
I am going to hit every one of those threads with the HIDE THREAD button.

I am here for positive reinforcement. I can get all the bad news from my local paper, local TV station, cable news networks, etc.
I need to hear what's positive about Kerry. What's positive about the campaign. I need to hear what positive things DU'ers are doing. I learn from this place. I'm not going to learn to wring my hands and give up. NO how, No way.

So bye bye negative threads. You have no place in my life.
And if you don't like my post, you can hit the hide thread or ignore poster button. I use em' all the time. :)

Just wanted to pass on my suggestions as I think a lot of people at DU want to remain in a positive mind frame. It's that positive energy that keeps me going.

[George_Bonanza]

54. This is a very positive post

Despite the misleading headline, it's about how Kerry has such a low chance of LOSING the election.

[Cronus Protagonist]

58. I'm with you on that one, Dem2TheMax (eom)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

61. Right on!

The negative posts don't motivate us to do anything, other than wring our hands and become paralyzed with fear.

It's terrifying to me, to think of Bush winning, and every day I have to hear the cable news or newspaper tell me that it's practically inevitable, what with Bush being so "decisive" and "likable" and "strong." It's disgusting.

Yes we need to be realistic about this -- I can envision a Bush win, as terrible as it would be, I think people are just stupid enough to let it happen -- but this is a place where we should come for positive messages about the campaign and WHAT WE CAN DO TO HELP KERRY WIN.

[Beetwasher]

59. LOL! Easter Egg Posting Bastard!

:evilgrin:

Mochiron!

[Cronus Protagonist]

62. It's nearly Halloween

Isn't it?

[KoKo]

60. Yes..given our weather lately...."snowballs in hell" are entirely possible

That's the odds...but given the weather...I give him odds on the "ABB" factor, because here in NC I see so many angry Democrats that would vote for a "snowball" over Chimp...so yes...