Question: Are Newly Registered Voters Considered "Likely" Voters In Polls?

[DrFunkenstein]

Considering that the overwhelming majority of people getting off their ass are doing so to kick Bush out before he sinks the Western Hemisphere, this would certainly affect how poll data should be looked at.

[A_Possum]

1. It does seem logical

Why else would someone register now?

[Melodybe]

7. No, likely voters means that they voted in 2000

registered voters doesn't really poll too many youngsters since they usually don't come out and vote. They are in for a big surprise, Clinton mentioned that the majority of young people for the first time since 1992 are going to vote. I honestly believe that we are going to get about 75% voter turn out.

Dems ALWAYS win when more people vote, like in 1992. Clinton is a brilliant man and I agree that democrats win when people think. People are actually thinking about this election, it will be the closest watched election in history.

As I always say if we can get a fair election Kerry will win in a landslide.

Have you called your senators today about BBV?

here is the # to the capital hill switchboard:

1 [phone]

Honestly how are our democratic leaders ever going to know how we feel if we don't call and tell them.

I urge everyone here to call and say something good about Kerry and something true about Bush. And just for good measure mention BBV and how big an issue the sanctity of our vote is.

[A_Possum]

8. I just said it seemed logical

I don't have any belief in polls as logical. ;)

And this is one of the reasons why.

[RoyGBiv]

2. Nope...

"Likely voters" are, among other things, those who have voted in the past.

[Lex]

3. No, of course not.

They can't possibly be "likely" voters because they have no track record of voting whatsoever.

They are NOT counted in the polls. That is, in fact, very significant for Kerry.

[MercutioATC]

4. I thought "likely" voters were those who had voted in the last election.

...which would mean new registrations didn't figure in.

[cheshire]

5. In that case is there any difference between likely and registered.

I say nothing is a positive. Unless they are getting a ride to the poll place.

[carpetbagger]

6. Most surveys weigh each response.

The weight assigned to a newly registered voter is likely related to the probability of that voter going to the polls based on results from prior elections.

I think this election is going to continue locked in a draw or small Bush lead right up to the end. I hope our folks get out and vote.

[shoopnyc123]

9. Hell no child...

[BMJ]

10. Of course not. That's why * is going to be shocked

when he loses.