NEW POLLS - Kerry Takes Electoral Lead - MO, PA changes, NV, FL Tie

[indyjones1938]

New state polls were released late Friday by SurveyUSA (the most accurate pollster). These come on the heels of the other SurveyUSA polls released Thursday that showed Bush's electoral lead had fallen to 254 versus Kerry's 252.

The new polls have not yet been updated on www.electoral-vote.com, but when they are it will be: Kerry 273 versus Bush 233. Here are the exact results:

Missouri:

Bush: 48%
Kerry 46%

Previously Bush held a 14% lead in Missouri (Gallup, Sept. 7th)

Pennsylvania:

Kerry: 49%
Bush: 47%

Previously Bush held a 1% lead (Gallup, Sept. 7th)

So in the electoral vote tallies, Pennsylvania moves from barely Bush to barely Kerry. Missouri moves from strong Bush to barely Bush. Previously, Ohio moved from strong Bush to barely Bush, North Carolina from weak Bush to barely Bush and Virginia from weak Bush to barely Bush. Nevada and Florida remain in a dead tie.

[ogradda]

1. right on!

do you have a link?

[indyjones1938]

7. Links

Direct link: http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

dailyKos analysis: www.dailykos.com

I guess what these state electoral polls demonstrate is that the Time/Gallup/CNN polls giving Bush an 11% national lead are just pure media spin. There is almost no way, statistically speaking, that Bush could have an 11% national lead yet Kerry is consistently tied and now ahead in the electoral vote counts. The media would have us believe that Kerry and Edwards are singing their swan song, but it just ain't so.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Ok Red Alert by Monday

this cannot be good for Rove

[rsmith6621]

4. This Means

That Shrub will step up the Lies,and Distortions for another week....


Bush is going to lose this BIG TIME.......The lies are catching up with them.......The Media is going to look like a bunch of idiots after this election is done and Kerry WINS......but give them till noon on NOv 3rd and they will be backing Kerry......Hypocrites.

[LynnTheDem]

3. Good news.

Although how nearly 1/2 the people in this country can be so incredibly stupid as to still support the liar that got so many people killed is so beyond my ken.

We obviously just have a lot of really stupid citizens. Something the rest of the world noted long ago.

[Merlin]

5. You can't compare SurveyUSA today to Gallup 4 days ago.

You've got to compare same with same.

And who is SurveyUSA ?

[indyjones1938]

10. nt

Why, you sound like you're upset because Kerry is ahead, Merlin! Perish the thought, right? How are you planning to spin this one?

In case you've been tuned out (or just pick-and-choose what news you want to hear) the September 7th Gallup polls, as is typical of that organization, weighted Republican respondents too heavily.

SurveyUSA, as has been noted, is the most accurate of the major pollsters with the possible exception of Zogby. Gallup and Strategic Vision are both shills for the GOP machine.

And you're wrong by saying that you can't compare SurveyUSA to Gallup. The votemaster of www.electoral-vote.com has long used the most recent polls, no matter what their provenance, provided the methodology is sound.

I don't think anyone, aside from perhaps you and Sean Hannity, ever thought Bush had a 14 point lead in Missouri. Give me a break.

[TSIAS]

18. I agree

I'd like to see how this compares to the last Survey USA poll. Trends are more important than the actual #'s, IMO.

[gardenista]

6. Excellent! And this is before the TANG memos sink in, and before

the Kelley dirt. (Not that I approve that message!)

[Satchel]

8. I try not to pay attention

but I do look at the polls, but how can you trust them really? Let's hope this one is right.

[George_Bonanza]

9. Whoa, the Strong Kerry column shot up by 50 EVs!

[tritsofme]

11. Most accurate on what grounds?

I like SUSA a lot, but since they've never polled a Presidential election before, their claim to fame is nailing the 2003 recall IIRC, I respect them but wouldn't call them the most accurate.

[oasis]

12. Looking better though I'm no fan of polls. (eom)

[katmondoo]

13. I don't rely on poles

I have Kerry signs on the car, I have a large W with circle and slash, I have a purple heart with "BUSH is a Traitor" on the side window, I wear a DU anti-W shirt with a Kerry button, then I walk into the store and nobody pays any attention! 2 years ago I would have been assaulted, this is central Florida, a very Bushy area.
There are still many people who will not admit to supporting Kerry. Also not nearly as many flags. When Bush was at his peak, almost everyone here had a flag on his car. This is my indicator of Bush's popularity, when the flags are down so is Bush. Not many Kerry signs but not many Bush signs either.

[cthrumatrix]

14. nice to see... but I am more concerned with e-voting

[papau]

15. Why does Wash Post disagree?

Are only 10 states still "competitive states" (as suggested by Wash Post)


Does DU agree with Dan Balz of the Washington Post that only 10 states are still "competitive states"

Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire, with West Virginia and Nevada major, major challenges for Kerry - more so than the other 8.

Are the other 11 "battleground states" really leaning too far to be called "competitive, because - per Baltz- we have -7 Leaning toward Bush which are: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia - with 4 leaning toward Kerry which are: Maine, Michigan, Oregon and Washington.

And of the 10 that are still "competitive", the Bush team will be putting major money to win into Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, while they view Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as states they can make Kerry work very hard to defend, and see West Virginia and Nevada as quite likely to go their way.

Is it really down to a huge effort to fight the above battle, while the winner of 2 out 3 of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio wins the election?

[swag]

16. What are Balz' sources?

What are his polls?

[papau]

17. Article claims "discussions with Bush and Kerry camps"

The state by state poll results are not really spread out in the article.

[swag]

20. Thanks

I consider these sources the most suspicious of all.

But we will see, I guess.

[cindyw]

19. Never rely on Gallup. They had Bush with a 7 point lead when others

had Kerry up by 7. They always give Bush an average of 10 points of support he does not have.