Kerry:LEADING in EVERY state Gore won + 4 states he LOST

[TruthIsAll]

Comparing Kerry vs. Bush to Gore vs. Bush: Latest state poll data from:
www.electoral-vote.com

Kerry is leading or tied in these states which Gore lost:
CO, FL, NV, NH

ON EDIT: My bad. Of course, Gore won FL - easily (50,000 +)

He is leading in ALL the states Gore won.

I love the smell of victory in the morning.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

He's not doing so badly, now is he?

......Gore........Kerry.......Diff
AL 42.86% 38.64% (4.22)
AK 32.18% 37.08% 4.89
AZ 46.88% 41.30% (5.57)
AR 47.42% 48.94% 1.51
CA 55.79% 55.32% (0.47)

CO 45.16% 50.55% 5.39
CT 59.57% 54.22% (5.36)
DE 56.70% 56.70% 0.00 <coincidence
DC 90.43% 90.53% 0.10
FL 49.95% 50.00% 0.05

GA 43.88% 40.86% (3.02)
HI 60.22% 53.93% (6.28)
ID 29.47% 31.25% 1.78
IL 56.12% 57.78% 1.66
IN 41.84% 37.50% (4.34)

IA 50.52% 52.04% 1.53
KS 38.95% 36.84% (2.11)
KY 41.84% 41.05% (0.78)
LA 45.92% 40.91% (5.01)
ME 52.69% 52.69% 0.00 <coincidence

MD 58.33% 55.79% (2.54)
MA 64.52% 65.12% 0.60
MI 52.58% 53.61% 1.03
MN 51.06% 53.19% 2.13
MS 41.41% 32.97% (8.45)

MO 48.45% 48.94% 0.48
MT 36.26% 38.37% 2.11
NE 34.74% 34.74% 0.00 < no poll
NV 47.92% 50.00% 2.08
NH 49.47% 52.63% 3.16

NJ 58.33% 52.44% (5.89)
NM 50.05% 55.10% 5.05
NY 63.16% 60.22% (2.94)
NC 43.43% 47.92% 4.48
ND 35.11% 35.11% 0.00 <no poll

OH 47.92% 48.45% 0.54
OK 38.78% 40.00% 1.22
OR 50.05% 52.69% 2.64
PA 52.58% 51.04% (1.54)
RI 65.59% 66.22% 0.62

SC 41.84% 44.21% 2.37
SD 38.78% 42.55% 3.78
TN 47.96% 45.36% (2.60)
TX 39.18% 36.67% (2.51)
UT 27.96% 24.72% (3.24)

VT 55.43% 58.62% 3.19
VA 45.83% 48.45% 2.62
WA 52.63% 54.17% 1.54
WV 46.94% 44.94% (1.99)
WI 50.05% 51.02% 0.97
WY 29.17% 29.17% 0.00 <no poll

AVG 48.12% 49.73% 1.61

[mark414]

1. fuck all polls

but especially fuck national polls

if i'm going to look at any, it's going to be the state to state polls. the national polls mean nothing because we have a little something called the electoral college. thanks for the news!

[Longhorn]

2. These are state-to-state polls.

That's the whole premise of the site.

[xray s]

3. Hey! Gore won Florida!

Well...if they would have counted all the votes anyway....

[demwing]

4. THIS is how to look at polls!

Who cares if Bush or Kerry has a lead in national polls, it doesn't mean shat. Bush could have 100% support in 90% of the states he won in 2000, show an ENOURMOUS national lead, and still lose the EC. Likewise, Kerry could have 100% support in California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois, (over 100 million people!), register support of landslide proportions, and still suffer an embarrassing EC loss if he took no other states.

Thanks for the insight!

[Mz Pip]

5. CA can't be right

no way is Bush even a half a point ahead. Gore won CA by 11 points and current CA polls show Kerry up by about 10.

MzPip
:dem:

[TruthIsAll]

7. You are reading it wrong. I show Gore and Kerry, not Bush

Diff = Kerry - Gore

[Mz Pip]

10. Ooops

Sorry. Now it all makes sense. Thanks!

MzPip
:dem:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

6. AR will go Kerry

Two Swift Boat crewmembers are from AR, and though some freepers have believed the junk Shrubco has spewed out, others know the real deal when they see/hear it. AR is a small state, but has a diproportionate number of people in Guard/Reserves. Families know first hand what is happening.

[oasis]

8. Looks good. Thanks for your work, TIA.

:bounce:

[BootinUp]

9. Strap yourself in, its gonna be a squeeker

I still believe we will win provided that Osama isn't captured before the election.

[Wright Patman]

11. Supreme Court will decide

sometime in December 2004 that *, since he won the popular vote, can remain as president for another term just this one time. It will not be of any precedential value, but the Supremes will say that because we are 'at war' etc., the electoral college must be discarded as an outdated relic whenever it does not confirm popular vote victories, but only if those popular vote victories accrue to the GOP's benefit.

We can call this the legal doctrine known as "heads, you win; tails, I lose."

I hope I am being sarcastic here, but my outlandish sarcastic remarks have unfortunately been of not inconsiderable predictive value in recent years.