Latest Rasmussen Polling Data Continues to Show Race a Toss-Up

[louis c]

Rasmussen's daily three day tracking polls, which I follow religiously, shows an one point Bush lead.

It is dead even in the 16 battleground states at 47%. These states include Fla, Penn, Ohio, Mich, Mo, Wisc, Az, Minn, Ore, Iowa, Ark, Nev, N.M, W.Vir, Me, N.H,

This data is available on his free home page.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

On his Paid Premium Site, of which I'm a member, let me share the latest numbers with you for the three days ending 9/11/04

Florida 47% tie; Michigan 48%-45% Kerry; Ohio 48%-46% Kerry; Pennsylvania 49%-48% Kerry.

So much for that phony 11 point bullshit. Remember, Scott Rasmussen is a Republican so if these numbers are in any way biased, we're doing better than this.

[louis c]

1. kick

[senseandsensibility]

2. Thanks again

for sharing your premium polling data with us. Do you happen to know if Rasmussen was accurate in the 2000 election? I'm not trying to start anything, but I honestly can't remember.

[louis c]

3. He was not accurate

I think he had Bush by 7 points.

He has since changed quite a bit of his technique.

He doesn't yet have the reputation of Gallup, but he seems much more in line with common sense. When Kerry was doing well, he never was up by more than four points. The same for Bush. Right now, he has Bush by one.

Do realize that the numbers that showed Kerry behind by 11 points are numbers that were in line with McGovern? Come on, get real. I don't believe either guy is going to win this by more than four points, so Rasmussen seems well in line with common sense.

[sonicx]

6. he weights his polls now...

in 2000, he did unweighted polls that had oversampled rebuplicans. Now, he's doing what zogby does and weights em by about 39 dem, 35 rep, 26 ind. His polls now show the race being very close (which is the case in real life). i actaully think his poll is being generous to kerry(my guess is that he's down 3 or 4). but there is no doubt that the 11 point ones are bs.

i would trust him and zogby over the network polls. only network poll that weights right is fox, believe it or not. :)

[Octafish]

4. Thanks for the info!

Much appreciated, louis c!

The pollsters seem at odds with what my own eyes see and ears hear. I live in metro Detroit and the parking lots of the more conservative corners hold many more Kerry and Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers than Bush and the W sign. Same goes for the main roads to and from work. Most everyone I hear talk politics say Bush is in over his head, to put it politely.

So where does all this "support" for the unelected pyschopathic imbecile come from? If I could venture a guess, I'd put his numbers at about 39-percent in Michigan -- at best.

[louis c]

5. kick

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

7. Oregon?

Last I heard Kerry had an 8 point lead there. That state hasn't voted Republican since Ronald Reagan won it in 1984.

[sonicx]

9. i agree, we have it. i have no idea why its battleground. nt

[Droopy]

8. That's very encouraging, louis c

Thanks for showing the premium stuff.

[sonicx]

10. everyone should read this article on polling and weighting...

http://www.hs.ttu.edu/hdfs3390/weighting.htm

rass and zogby are only polls to really look at, IMO

newsweek, gallup, and time are garbage.

oh, and listen to this zogby interview...

http://www.truthout.org/multimedia.htm

[louis c]

11. I agree

Zogby and Rasmussen are the ones I follow.

Zogby has a personnal prefference to the left, Rasmussen to the right, so I try to factor that in. They both seem to be fair, however.