Our chances of taking the Senate look good.

[coloradodem2005]

We stand to gain Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado and Illinois and we only stand to lose Georgia.

[Must_B_Free]

1. Good f'in riddance to Georgia...

[phish420]

22. Amen

My neocon aunt is in GA...they deserve nutcase zell and whoever replaces his insane ass.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. We'll keep Arkansas

Blanche Lincoln should win easily. Any other Dems running for a safe seat?

[DarthDem]

4. Sure

Many - - Evan Bayh, Barbara Boxer, Harry Reid, Russ Feingold, Patty Murray. I'm sure I forgot a few.

I like your analysis, but South Carolina will be a tough win for us even though we have a great candidate. Still, if we win AK, CO, IL, and OK, as I clearly think we can, then we can afford the loss of SC and the "loss" of GA and still have a 51-49 (technically 50+1 to 49) majority. But we have to win in FL, LA, and NC.

[AlCzervik]

20. I live in california and Boxer will win for sure

The guy running against her his Bill jones, author of the 3 strikes law. He has been polling 20-30-% below her plus he's a "Major league asshole". He's had trouble raisng money and no longer mentions Bush when he gets camera time.

[dammit905]

3. We're not REALLY losing Georgia... n/t

[belle]

5. Well, in terms of who gets to be Majority Leader.

[carpetbagger]

7. Not really.

My guess is that Chafee and Miller would have a standoff if either defection would have changed the balance of the Senate. They may have in 2001-2.

If there's a Kerry presidency, I see no reason for Chaffee to switch parties. The moderates would then be right where they wanted to be, the key votes picking and choosing what of Kerry's agenda comes to pass. Miller, however, would bolt the party if Kerry were president, or if at this point there were to be any legislative reason to do so.

[elperromagico]

21. Miller isn't an issue in a Kerry presidency; he'll be out of office

on 3 January. :D

[bobbieinok]

6. not sure about OK....the repub is darling of the OK religious right

[cmayer]

8. South Carolina is a little dicey.

We're in pretty good shape there, but I wouldn't put it in the win column yet.

[Name removed]

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[jefferson_dem]

10. Didn't the Repug Cand in OK (Cobern) make some asinine remark

the other day? Called OK City folks "crap heads" or something. That won't help him, i don't think. Or maybe i'm not up on OK politics enough. Watch NC too. Dem Bowles is gaining steam.

[Name removed]

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[Bleacher Creature]

19. Not surprising.

We're talking about a guy who wanted the FCC to fine NBC for airing Schindler's List b/c it contained nudity.

[Awsi Dooger]

12. Illinois is the only certain pickup and many others are problematic

We are slight favorites with Knowles. Oklahoma and Colorado, I would settle for one of the two in a heartbeat. Bowles is already a one-time loser in NC so that's demonstrated vulnerability. SC and GA figure as losses, and Castor/Martinez in FL is a tossup at best. LA with the runoff probability is always difficult to gauge.

[Nadeaufan17]

13. Ohio

Don't rule out Ohio and Eric Fingerhut. He still has a chance to beat the incumbent Republican Voinovich. We are still 14% back in the polls, but gained 7% in one month with over 20% still undecided.

[fujiyama]

14. The two

that I have no clue about are La (they have that weird run off system there) and FL (though I I saw Castor ahead in one poll).

Dems need to win Ok, Fl. La, Co, Ak, and NC. I'm assuming that SC and Ga are very unlikely at this point.

We have some good chances in these races. Plus, in Co I hope we can get reverse coattails of some sort and get Kerry to win the state.

[coloradodem2005]

17. Kerry may get a victory in Colorado.

I am seeing more and more Kerry/Edwards stickers in South Jeffco. Which I always thought was Republican.

[Shuck and Jive]

15. Lousianna is not a certainty

[yankeeinlouisiana]

16. Louisiana is never a certainty.

We have 4 guys running. David Vitter - Repuke, John Kennedy, Chris John and Arthur Morrell -- all Dems. Chris John is to the right of John Breaux. Arthur Morrell is a true Democrat!! :-) John Kennedy seems to be more in the middle. More progressive than Breaux. David Vitter would be our worse nightmare!

No one will probably get 50+% in November, so we won't know until December who our next Senator be (and how the senate will play out).

I have a feel that John Kennedy will be our next senator. Just a feeling though.

[usregimechange]

18. Missouri will be tough but we have a chance, Nancy Farmer nt

[Name removed]

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