We almost have to win Florida.

[Guaranteed]

Building off of this article, which shows that 40 of the 50 states are more or less decided for Bush or Kerry:

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4975162.html

I've made some analysis of which states we need to win. This guy Charlie Cook gives Bush 211 pretty sure EV's, in comparison to Kerry's 207, with 10 states left.

He says the 10 real battleground states left are:

Florida
Iowa
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin



Okay: I'm pretty sure we'll get Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico- their EV's bring us up to 233.

So we need 37 more EV's, out of:

Florida (27)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
Ohio (20)
Pennsylvania (21)
Wisconsin (10).

I say we've got a pretty good shot at that. Let's look at a few of the combinations that would do it:

Nevada and Missouri plus Pennsylvania or Florida.

Any two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Any three of any of them, except Nevada.

Florida plus any of them except Nevada.



Any other broad combinations you can think of that I haven't hit here?

It looks like Nevada won't help us much without at least two, possibly three others.

****But here is the main thing to take away from this: Florida is the key, because taking it gives us a win with one of ANY of the other states, except Nevada.

We almost have to win Florida.

[kevin881]

1. no.

florida is not a must for kerry... but without it, bush cannot win.

[Guaranteed]

4. I know what you're saying, because I've been saying that too.

I'm not saying it's a MUST...what it IS, though, is extremely important.

While it's possible for us to win a number of the six states left, look at the numbers: of the six left, if we get Florida plus any of the rest but Nevada, we win.

I think we really, really need to win Florida.

[kevin881]

6. all kerry has to do is....

win all the states that gore had in 2000, and take 1 more... any state.

[Guaranteed]

11. That's not true...Bush's states have gone, what,

plus 8 EV's since the last election? Something like that...

PLUS we'd have to make up the other 3 EV's Gore didn't get. So that's at least 11 more EV's.

[tedoll78]

Not quite.

Gore's states are worth about 260EVs now. If Kerry wins those plus New Hampshire (which seems solid Kerry now), he needs just 6 more electoral votes.

Arkansas alone would do it.
Same goes for Missouri or Tennessee, or Virginia or North Carolina, or Florida or Ohio, or Arizona.
Colorado would do it also, assuming that the proportional electoral votes measure doesn't pass.

So Kerry has any number of options. This being the week after his convention, it is Bush's best polling week.. and still, he's only managing to pull into a tie in PA, MN, IA, WI, etc. This is a really good sign for our team.

[Guaranteed]

17. The other thing with that is that it's assuming wins in Pennsylvania and

Wisconsin, and I don't think we should be making that assumption. In particular with Wisconsin, which Gore won by .2%.

So, yeah, this has all been factored in, and we can't rest on what Gore did.

Hell, I'm already assuming a win in NM, which we only won by .1(!)%.

[tedoll78]

15. Ignore.. I double-posted.. (nt)

please ignore.

[jab105]

2. PA should be for Kerry I would think?

more likely than Florida...I'm in Florida...we are working hard...phone hardcore training next Saturday...

[Cha]

22. Thanks, jab!

[meti57b]

3. I do not see how we can win Florida with the crooks in control of...

the state government. I think we have to try, but realistically can not count on winning Florida.

[murielm99]

5. I am more worried about Ohio.

While we concentrate on making sure that Florida goes for us and there is minimal cheating, the bastards steal Ohio.

[gospelized]

7. he forgot

virginia's 13 evs are up for grabs this year.

this guy didn't really include all swings.

[Guaranteed]

9. Yeah, we could throw North Carolina in there, too,

but I think we need to be realistic, here.

If we get either of those, that's great, but we shouldn't consider them in our serious analysis.

[MAlibdem]

10. i think VA is more realistic than NC

[Guaranteed]

13. But, ultimately, it's not.

I really agree with this guy's list. I think he's right on the money.

[gospelized]

14. me too

VA has a democratic governor now, after a repbulican pretty much ruined the economy. and a lot of people are pretty pissed that the former governor is now a senator and has voted 100% with the christian coalition.

there's a pretty massive grassroots effort here. i've sent letters to soooo many newspapers.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. We are going to win Florida

just like last time only by many more votes.

[papau]

12. It won't be close - Lockhart gets Kerry to Tough pushing back &, likable

or Shrum keeps him soft and smiles and we lose big.. I like Bob - but 88 is not a great year to claim expertise from.

Clinton - Hill and Bill - and friends need to make Kerry back into what he was in the last 3 Weld debates (Kerry was Not great in the first 3 Weld debates in 96) - and Kerry has to be great in the FIRST debate, after which he can smile his way and give serious - no soundbite - just good options - responses to get past the next 2 debates. The first debate MUST show the 'Nam commander who is sure of himself and articulate.

[quinnox]

16. not necessarily,

I was looking at electoral-vote.com and currently it shows a Kerry win if he can take Penn., NM, and Colorado. This assumes Bush will win Nevada, Florida, Ohio and Missouri. This would give Kerry 273 electoral votes and is very possible.

[Guaranteed]

18. I wouldn't count on Colorado, either.

I was looking at that map, too, while I was writing this post.

[speedoo]

19. The 269 tie is very plausible in this analysis.

Add to youe 233 the following: PA (21) and Wisconsin (10). That's 264. If Kerry only adds Nevada to that total, it ends up in a tie at 269 apiece. Which is really a loss, given the fact that the House then decides. So instead of Nevada, Kerry must win Missouri, Florida or Ohio.

[Guaranteed]

20. Yup.

Or, replace Wisconsin with Missouri.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. Any two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

Almost a given, we need the big electoral chunks. The inside straight of winning all the Gore states plus a couple of minis ignores the mathematical improbability of that, given the razor thin margins in states like New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Let me demonstrate it this way: if Kerry is a 60-40 favorite in all 4 of those states, he is nearly a 7/1 underdog NOT to win all 4. It is theoretically 81 chances out of 625 to sweep. You can't rely on that. Margin for error is critical.

[Guaranteed]

23. Yup, exactly my point.

Winning Florida is SO important.

[OneBlueSky]

24. well, that might be difficult . . .

if there's any state where the fix is in, it is Florida . . . I'm sure Jeb's people will be making those voting machines sing their song on cue . . .

[Guaranteed]

25. Kick nt

[w4rma]

26. Just count Florida out, now. Jeb *will* steal it.

Nothing has improved in Florida on the topic of vote security. If anything, things have gone downhill, since 2000.

[Guaranteed]

27. If that's the case, we have a really, really serious problem. nt

[w4rma]

29. Yes. We do. These past few years have been like watching a slow motion

train wreck for me.

[fujiyama]

28. We almost have to

assume that Pa is in the bag, because if Kerry loses that, the night is over. I just don't see Oh and Fl going to Kerry, with Pa going to Bush. This doesn't mean Kerry should take it for granted (and he's not) but Pa is a MUST win state, just like Mi and NJ are.

Otherwise I think you're right. People say "write off Fl because of fraud".

IMO that's very foolish. It's 27 freakin electoral votes for God's sake! The state's demographics SHOULD work in our favor as well. Perhaps more so than Oh. Kerry and the democrats will just have to do what they can to insure that it's not stolen.

I also agree that Co, Az, Va, and NC would be great pick ups, but I don't think they are very likely. Though Co has a senatorial race as well with a relatively popular candidate Salazaar. It's been tied in various polls, though I don't think I've seen any after the convention. NC also has a senate race where the dem (Bowles) is likely to win as well. Va and NC have also been very close in the polls...Va and Co both were won by Bush with a margin of 8-9 points. Az was 6 but polls have him up by quite a bit. A SUSA poll showed Mo within two.

One possibility to win without Oh and Fl is Gore states + WV and Nv.