9/12 Kerry: 295 EV, 85% WIN PROBABILITY

[TruthIsAll]

Gore won 21 states with 260 electoral votes (266 pre-redistricting).

Kerry leads or is tied in 25 states with 305 electoral votes.

KERRY IS LEADING IN COLORADO!

Kerry is within striking distance in:
AR (2)
MO (2)
OH (3)
VA (3)

The latest AZ poll has him down 16. Don't believe it.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/index.htm

[opihimoimoi]

1. TIA, you is my MAN, you give me energy and promise.....

sending beer, fish, poi, ribs, and wine....

[DaveofCali]

2. HAH! Electoral-vote.com says something similar as well

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 273 Bush 233

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[private_ryan]

3. full disclosure

who runs that site?

[tedoll78]

4. With the national beauty contest polls taking-up most polling headlines..

This is really refreshing.

The only real risk I see is from Kerry voters getting discouraged by the national polls. But I see an opportunity for Kerry to remind folks that national polls don't really matter when state polls determine the winner. And since everyone knows what happened in 2000, he can just point to 2000 as an example.

If Kerry and his supporters can spread this reminder around, there'll be little to no real damage from national poll-related turnout depression.

[freeplessinseattle]

5. can my day get any better?

you guys are better than prozac, I tell ya. Thank you!

[NoodleBoy]

6. Why not believe the AZ polls?

And are you somehow accounting for the fact that unfrequent evangelical voters are going to turn out in droves for this election?

[Awsi Dooger]

7. That poll was conducted Sept. 3-5, the height of Bush's bounce

The GOP convention ended Thursday, Sept. 2 so those days featured the supposed 11 point national lead perpetually hyped on TV.

Also, I'm never thrilled with Market Solutions state polls. I have seen them in Arizona and Minnesota, I believe it was from 2000, usually infrequent and with unreliable numbers, often much higher gaps than the norm, for whatever reason.

[Ediacara]

9. Aside from the fact that it was taken during the height of Bush's "bounce"

I find it very unlikely that it could swing from "within MOE" to "Bush landlside" within a week.

I'll wait to see some polls in the next week to see what's really trending here.

Also, what do you mean by infrequent evangelicals? Do you have any data supporting your assertion that they actually WILL show up?

[papau]

8. Wash Post disagrees

Are only 10 states still "competitive states" (as suggested by Wash Post)


Does DU agree with Dan Balz of the Washington Post that only 10 states are still "competitive states"

Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire, with West Virginia and Nevada major, major challenges for Kerry - more so than the other 8.

Are the other 11 "battleground states" really leaning too far to be called "competitive, because - per Baltz- we have -7 Leaning toward Bush which are: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia - with 4 leaning toward Kerry which are: Maine, Michigan, Oregon and Washington.

And of the 10 that are still "competitive", the Bush team will be putting major money to win into Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, while they view Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as states they can make Kerry work very hard to defend, and see West Virginia and Nevada as quite likely to go their way.

Is it really down to a huge effort to fight the above battle, while the winner of 2 out 3 of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio wins the election?

[TruthIsAll]

10. A response

You:

Are the other 11 "battleground states" really leaning too far to be called "competitive, because - per Baltz- we have -7 Leaning toward Bush which are: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia - with 4 leaning toward Kerry which are: Maine, Michigan, Oregon and Washington.

Me:
Baltz doen't know squat. Kerry has a good shot in all of the states leaning towards Bush, except perhaps LA.

You:
And of the 10 that are still "competitive", the Bush team will be putting major money to win into Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, while they view Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as states they can make Kerry work very hard to defend, and see West Virginia and Nevada as quite likely to go their way.

Me:
These are competitive, but all went for Gore, except WV and NV.
Kerry is leading in all of them except WV.

[papau]

11. Thanks - Appears then that Wash Post is aiding Bush in the Rove get the

other guy discouraged plan

I am told this is always how Rove works - I just did not expect the Wash Post to help.

Again thanks.

:-)