Rasmussen Battleground Report for Sunday

[louis c]

The Rasmussen Home Page has Bush up by 3 points today. This is a three day tracking poll. In the 16 battleground states, it is still a tie. This info is available on his home page, free of charge.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

On his Paid Premium Site, his five battleground states seven day rolling tracking average for 9/12/04 are:

Florida, Kerry 49%-47%; Michigan Kerry 50%-44%; North Carolina, Bush 54%-43% (this is actually good movement from a Kerry 17 point deficit on 9/10/04); Ohio, Kerry 48%-46% (this has been a 2 or 3 point Kerry lead for the last seven days); Pennsylvania Bush 49%-48% (this is the first Bush lead in seven days).

[A_Possum]

1. really appreciate your reports louis c

they show the underlying perspective

[featherman]

2. Good info. Thanks

[Chili]

3. much thanks from me too

it's most appreciated!

[WI_DEM]

4. Michigan looks very good

and to actually be leading in Florida and Ohio excellent. I'm not worried about Pennsylvania as I think Kerry will ultimately win it. I wish the tracking poll #'s will tighten again soon, though I know there will be spikes up and down for both candidates. Another good point is that the football games today I saw two effective Kerry ads on the economy using Bush's own words against him.

[blue neen]

5. What is up with PA?

I don't understand that, unless they just polled people from central PA.

[louis c]

11. The numbers fluctuate from day to day

Tracking polls develop a trend, and are more like a moving picture than a snapshot. When you see a lead hold for a week or ten days, then you can get the true sense of what's going on. Florida goes from +2 to -2 all the time during the week. So, the sense is it's a toss-up. Ohio has been +2 to +3 for over a week, so you can assume a small Kerry lead. Pennsylvania has been +2 to +4 Kerry, until today. Now, it must be watched closely to see if this is just a small bump, an aberration, or a trend. Michigan has been for Kerry, but on 9/8/04, a small bump put Bush a point ahead. The very next day, Kerry was +4, then +2, +3, now +6. See the trend.

The tracking evens itself out, to give you a true sense of the electorate. Of course, this is all assuming the figures are accurate. I do.

Nationally, Kerry had a lead of 2 to 4 points from the choosing of Edwards up to the Swiftliars ads. Bush slowly pulled even, then was ahead by 3 to 5 points for a week following the RNC. Now, the numbers are Bush by 1 to 3 points.

Trends are what you watch on tracking. For instance, in a conventional poll like Time or Newsweek, if that poll is taken over a two day span, and released three days later, even if the numbers are accurate for those two days, the info is obsolete by the time you hear it. Add to that the timing could be influenced by a single event. It becomes an irrelevant "snap-shot".

The only "snap-shot" poll that means anything is November 2, because that day is frozen in time.

Right now, only tracking polls can give you a true sense of what's going on.

[blue neen]

13. Thanks for the explanation and for your info every day.

[Catfight]

6. Can Edwards get Northh Carolina? n/t

[louis c]

21. I don't think so

Libby Dole is there, and they love her.

Now that the Veterans' bullshit has undercut the Kerry strategy among that group, North Carolina seems like a lost cause.

I like Nevada, because of Yucca Flats waste site that Bush lied about. Plus, strong Unions, and a lot of new voters. Add the Medicare hike and prescription drugs for the retirees, that's a good spot for Kerry.

New Hampshire should go to us, because of the Mass. citizens working for Kerry up there, as well a Vermonters.

If we don't carry Colorado, but the new initiative giving the electors out by congressional district passes there, we could be in court again.

[Droopy]

7. That's odd

Kerry up in Ohio but down in PA. I think Ohio is a more conservative state than PA.

[RamboLiberal]

8. Kerry and Edwards need to do more appearance in PA

Bush/Cheney have been inundating this state. Lot of complaints too about Kerry campaign people on the ground in Pittsburgh as well.

[vickie]

9. What kinds of complaints against Kerry campaign people?

[blue neen]

10. Agree with that 100%. Bush/Cheney are here CONSTANTLY.

Actually makes me sick to my stomach. Kerry CANNOT take this state for granted. There are still hunters here who think Kerry will take away their hunting rifles. Don't they realize that when Bush gets done ruining the environment there will be nothing left to hunt???

[louis c]

22. Please read reply #11

[louis c]

16. Please read Reply #11

[Bush was AWOL]

12. Hard to believe Kerry is down in PA

and up in Ohio and Florida.

[louis c]

14. Please read my explanation

in reply #11.

[SoCalDemocrat]

15. likely or registered

are those likely or registered voter numbers? It makes a considerable difference.

[louis c]

18. What kind of "unlikely voter"

takes the time to answer questions about polling?

I think it makes no difference in a Presidential election.

"Could you take the time to answer some questions about the upcoming election?" respondent "O.K." Q. "Do you intend on voting" A. "No".

and then for the next ten minutes that person gives the polling agent answers about an election they're not voting in?

Those are separated into certain votes, and leaners. Rasmussen gives results with leaners, and they alway increase the Kerry total, but are not put into the "hard data". They are however, made available to premium members, but I don't put much stock in leaners until the week before the election.

Come on, grow up, and don't fall for that Repuke shit.

If you're willing to tell a stranger on the phone that you intend to vote Bush or Kerry, why would you not vote on election day?

[sonicx]

17. when's the last time kerry's been in PA?

i think we'll win it, but i can't believe how close it is.

[blue neen]

19. He was in Allentown last week.

Big turnout for him...about 15,000 people.

[Demi_Babe]

20. Thank you