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Kerry gets 274 ..without Ohio, Colorado. Missouri or Florida

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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:48 PM
Original message
Kerry gets 274 ..without Ohio, Colorado. Missouri or Florida
Edited on Sun Sep-12-04 07:04 PM by SoCalDem
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Bleacher Creature Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. Nevada's blue on your map?
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:51 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. woops.. I corrected it.. he needs nevada and W virginia
I think he can do it though :)
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. He can lose W va and nevada if he gets Ohio.. that makes it 284
:)"
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. Looks like you gave him Nevada (just to correct your headline)
But I think actually Nevada is more likely to go Kerry than West Virginia. Nevada is much closer in the polls and the west is actually Kerry's best region of the country at this point.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I corrected it.. I uploaded the wrong map
:)
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DarthDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Possible Strategy . . . .

Pouring tons of resources into NV and AR as a backup to the OH/FL strategy might not be a bad idea . . . I'm not sure WV is competitive.
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #2
23. I like our chances in Nevada
It's a very pro-union state, and with the local anger of Yucca flats lie that Bush fed them in 2000, I think we have a good shot there.

New Hampshire is a Kerry state, because we are working the shit out of it from Mass.

That's a tie. Not good. We still need one more, and we must hold all Gore's states in the mean time.
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sonicx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:53 PM
Response to Original message
7. it would be a huge help if we got FL or OH...
i'm not counting either out! i think we can get one.
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tedoll78 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:54 PM
Response to Original message
8. Sadly,
I don't see West virginia going blue. It seems as though they like their health benefits going away, their occupational safety standards not being enforced, their pay stagnating, etc. Heaven forbid we treat the homos fairly. Heaven forbid we stop people from hunting with AK-47s..

I see great hope in Colorado. Salazar is creating quite a stir among our core voters, and Kerry is faring quite well there right now, especially considering how this is still the week after the Chimp's convention. If I were Kerry, I'd start hammering Colorado HARD.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. click the link.. he can do it without w va
I love this map.. It's fun to see how the different scenarios play out :)
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sundancekid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #9
13. with nevada only he gets 269 ... gotta have 11 more EV's than 2000 states
2000 blue states = 260 EV's
plus NH would = 264
plus NV would = 269
plus ???
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #13
22. That's what I get
Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, Colorado, or Missouri.

We need one of them, because a tie goes to the asshole.
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wuushew Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:37 PM
Response to Reply #9
20. What is your no WV scenario?
Colorado in an all or nothing battle would go barely Bush, if they split it the vote we still lose, either by a tie or one short.


Maybe Arizonia, but I am doubtful.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. NO WVa, but he would need NC..Maybe Edwards can help there
Of course Ohio would mean no need for NC or NV or even NM...that gives him 290
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janx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:33 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. There's a rumor that he's coming here again on Friday.
It was posted in the Colorado forum.
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Bleacher Creature Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 06:59 PM
Response to Original message
10. I still can't accept that fact that so many people
choose to vote against their own self-interest. If people weren't such damn lemmings OH, WV, FL and NV would all be solid blue.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:00 PM
Response to Original message
11. Jury is out on WV but I have hopes.
NV looks very good. Voted Clinton twice. Turnout in 2000 was under 50% and the vote margin was about 20,000 for Bush (3.5%) with a sizable Nader vote (15,000). Demographics show an increase in DEM registration and the BIG "X factor" is everybody is angry with current administration about the nuclear waste issue.
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MissouriTeacher Donating Member (476 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
12. I've been saying that PA...
is the key.

We need to keep that one, and we can still win without OH or FL. Bush, on the other hand, needs both.

What's up with WV anyway? Wasn't Bush the first Republican they voted for in a long, long time? I heard that the NRA killed Gore there. Willy they do the same to Kerry in West Virginia?
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:22 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Unions used to be the key for dems, but look at all the union jobs
that have left.:(..and the gun thing too :(

W VA should be a solid blue state.. Maybe since the mining industry has ruined the place, there's some headway to be made on the envirnment.. W Virginians breathe and drink water too :)
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bushwakker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:28 PM
Response to Reply #12
16. My thinking has been for a while that we need to get to 270...
without OH or FL.
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GreenArrow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
15. He's getting 396 on my map
He sweeps West coast/SW, takes most states along Mississippi River, and cleans house in NE/Rust belt, Upper Midwest and Florida. I'm about this close to adding Oklahoma.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
17. Ahhh...well, you can give him Wisconsin, Nevada and WV,
or you can give him Ohio or Florida.
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GreenArrow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. or you can give him all of the
above.
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Guaranteed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #19
25. Hell, why not all fifty? nt
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GreenArrow Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 09:37 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. That's it!
Think B-I-G!
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louis c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:38 PM
Response to Original message
21. Start out with all Gore's states going to Kerry
and add New Hampshire and Nevada, and you get a Nation in complete turmoil.

Don't think it can't happen, because it can.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. 269 for Kerry with those two, BUT are we SURE that Bush
will get the rest??? Kerry only needs ONE additional state..(beyond NV and NH)
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JohnnyCougar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #24
29. like a split electoral college in Colarado
this would guaruntee kerry 4 more EV's :evilgrin:
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Can the legislature do it before the Nov election??
Do you think they will?? Would other states follow suit and really upset the apple cart??
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caffefwee Donating Member (475 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-12-04 11:12 PM
Response to Original message
28. kick
:kick:
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Bundbuster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 02:43 AM
Response to Original message
30. I like that map!
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kid a Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 05:29 AM
Response to Original message
31. I like it nt
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NewYorkerfromMass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
33. I don't think we'll win WV
but we'll win Colorado.
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VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-13-04 12:46 PM
Response to Original message
34. Oh-oh. I've got mine locked into a 269-269 standoff...
This is a possible scenario. Kerry takes: WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, IA, IL, WI, MI, PA, DC, MD. DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME, HI, which total 269 electoral votes. * takes all other states = 269 electoral votes.

If this actually happened, the election would be turned over to the House in January. And, if the composition of the House doesn't change considerably in November, * will win easily.

Kerry's going to need at least one of the following: Florida, Ohio.
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