Using the custom electoral vote chart, its obvious Bush is doomed.

[abrock]

SoCalDem got me thinking, and I decided to do my own of these because he/she made a couple mistakes, namely that Kerry is not likely to win WV and he MIGHT not win NV.

The following is a chart of ONLY the states I am sure Kerry is going to win. It would take a serious event to change him from winning these states, even though some polls don't show him currently ahead by very much. I'm taking into account the background of the states, that fact that the 18-24 age vote is not being polled properly, and the fact that Bush is not even doing very good AT HIS BEST there.

Remember, this prediction only take into account a FAIR election, which we almost certainly will not get in some states.

Red = States Repubs are almost certain to win.
Blue = States Dems are almost certain to win.
White = Tossup states. Bush must win EVERY SINGLE TOSSUP STATE TO WIN in my chart, unless Kerry wins Nevada and bush wins every single other tossup. That would be a tie, and thus we'd lose because the House picks the pres.

[liberalpragmatist]

1. I like the sentiments, but you're being a BIT too optimistic

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could go either way at this point. So could Iowa.

But I agree with the general thrust of what you're saying.

And just for the record, I'd add Tennessee to battleground "toosup" status.

[abrock]

3. I disagree.

Penn is in the bag. I have many friends there and they know the local scene. It is NOT a Bush state. Same deal with Wisconsin, however Iowa is a bit trickier. I still think Kerry has Iowa wrapped, barring a major surprise (which is more than just likely, it is probable) from Bushco before the election.

Remember, of course, this is a prediction based on what we know right now. There are a great many unknowns coming in the next few weeks.

[featherman]

2. Change AZ and WV to "tossup" and

I agree with you. I know there has been a double digit poll in AZ and a high singles from WV but I put more faith in historical trends and regional voting patterns than state polls. I believe both are still competitive.

[SoCalDem]

4. Mistakes??? .."I challenge you to a DUEL"....

</channeling Zell>

[abrock]

5. *Froths at the mouth* -- I ACCEPT YOUR CHALLENGE!

[tedoll78]

6. That's on big key that you hit on..

"the fact that Bush is not even doing very good AT HIS BEST there."

At his best, Bush is still either behind or ahead by 1 or 2% in these Gore states. I don't see him picking-up any of them either.

[wuushew]

7. The South is not winnable

change VA and NC red. Iowa should be tossup(trending Kerry).

MO and AR(favoring Bush).

The election will come down to NV,CO,OH,FL

[abrock]

8. Dead wrong.

Bush, as I said before "at his best", does not have a strong lead in either NC, VA, IA, or MO. I think Kerry will pick up at least 1 or 2 of those 4, if not more.