Ok...for real this time...here is how I think the EC will play out

[featherman]

based on my best knowledge to this point (usual caveats: hard work, no big surprises, blah blah)

Popular vote: polls will be within the M of E on Nov 1. Could be Bush + 3 or Kerry +1. Whatever. Doesn't matter. But Kerry wins popular vote by about 49% to 48.5% to 2.5% (other)

Kerry: all base (Gore) states plus NH for 264. Kerry also wins NV, FL, OH for 316 total

Bush: his base states plus MO,WV, AR, CO, LA, VA, NC and AZ for 222 total

Notes:
WI, IA, MN, NV, FL, OH go DEM by 2% or less. NM by +3, PA by +4, OR by +5. Nothing else is really close.

MO,CO,AZ, AR go to Bush by about +2. WV, NC, VA by + 3. LA by +6. Nothing else is close.

CO may or may not split it's votes which could change these totals in Kerry's favor.

[olddem43]

1. We can live with that.

But hope we do better.

[featherman]

3. I also hope we do better but this is my guess where it stands today

Every percentage of popular vote Kerry can improve from this model may or may not convert to additional EV's

[whalerider55]

2. thoughtful

i do think Bush rolls it up in the red states, but doesn't in the battlegrounds, so the EC will look lopsided. the interesting thing will be the impact that has on Senate and House races- e.g Colorado with Salazar.

one thing for sure- it will sure push a lot of pugs onto the abolish the electoral college bandwagon.

whalerider55

[featherman]

5. I do have hopes for CO and and happy with strong Salazar run

but CO has voted GOP for 4 of last 5 which inclines me to keep it in GOP column (weakly) until voters prove me wrong on Nov 2 (i hope)

[gasperc]

4. Sometimes, I see the tie and we get the Senate and even the house

so the house picks Bush(it by state majority delegation) and the Senate picks Edwards. Whoa, I give 2-3 odds