How Kerry wins: 2000 vs. 2004

[TruthIsAll]

He gets the Nader vote. Keeps the black vote. And gets more of
the increasing number of Muslims, Hispanics and Asians.

2000								
 Race	All	Gore	Gore%	Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
White	81%	42%	34.02% 54%	43.74%  0%	3%	2.43%
Black	10%	90%	9.00%	9%	0.90%	  0%	1%	0.10%
Hisp	7%	62%	4.34%	35%	2.45%	  1%	2%	0.14%
Asian	1%	55%	0.55%	41%	0.41%	  1%	3%	0.03%
Other	1%	55%	0.55%	39%	0.39%	  0%	4%	0.04%
	100%		48.46%           47.89% 		2.74%


2004								
Race	All	Kerry	Kerry% Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
White	78%	44%	34.32%  55%	42.9%	0%	1%	0.78%
Black	10%	90%	9.00%	   9%	0.90%	0%	1%	0.10%
Hisp	9%	66%	5.94%	  33%	2.97%	0%	1%	0.09%
Asian	2%	57%	1.14%	  41%	0.82%	0%	2%	0.04%
Other	1%	59%	0.59%	  39%	0.39%	0%	2%	0.02%
	100%		50.99%		47.98%      	       1.03%

[DaveSZ]

1. Latinos and young voters are important this year imo

[oasis]

2. It makes plenty sense to me. (eom)

[LittleClarkie]

3. What about

new, first time voters. Is there any reason they would not be showing up on the polls?

Then there are the military and overseas votes.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Good point. New, first time voters will make it a landslide.

I am just showing a plausible base case.

[partygirl]

4. I personally think

that Asians will support Kerry in unprecented numbers. After all, Kerry was against most all of the military action that America took over there. I am sure that Asians will appreciate that and reward him with their votes.

[partygirl]

7. I need to add

the military too. I bet Kerry gets 90% or more of the military vote. I don't know if this is true but I heard that 1 out of 10 men in the US are veterans? It seems weird, cause I don't actually know any veterans but supposedly there are a butt load of them. So basically this is going to be a big win for Kerry because I am sure that veterans will all support Kerry to the max.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Not quite 90% of the military vote. He'll be doing great with 50%.

The military usually goes 70% for Repukes.

But not this year.

[still_one]

5. How is he going to get the nader vote?

http://rawstory.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=59



The Raw Story9/12/2004
Nader plans to focus bid on swing states
Filed under: General— site admin @ 10:10 pm
Ralph Nader, the consumer advocate cum-career presidential candidate, announced plans to launch an aggressive new phase to his independent candidacy in swing states Thursday, the (registration-restricted) Hartford Courant reports. He is suggesting that part of its purpose would be to retaliate against Democrats who had fought his candidacy.

[TruthIsAll]

9. Nader will flame out in disgrace. He will NOT be a factor.

I give him 1%. Tops.

[AndyTiedye]

14. Nader is a Factor Because of Diebold

Nader on the ballot means the election is sooo much easier for the Repubs to steal.

In conservative areas, the machinez skim off Dem votes to Boosh.
If they do that in lefty areas, people would get suspicous, so just
skim of Dem votes to Nader instead.

[fujiyama]

10. Most of the people

that will vote for Nader this time, wouldn't vote for Kerry whether or not he was on the ballot.

I don't see Nader getting any more half of the voters he got last time...and a majority of those that voted for him in OR, FL, WI, MN, NH etc...know that their states were very close and their vote would make a difference between who is elected (especially those in FL).

[LittleClarkie]

12. I was told by a worker in our WI headquarters

That Nader's been telling his people in the Swing states that if it gets down to the wire and their votes would help Kerry, then they should switch their vote. He wants to make the Dems work for their votes in those areas, though.

I hope that's true.

[fujiyama]

13. I doubt it.

He recently said that he's going to campaign more aggressively in swing states, mostly out of spite. He claims it's "retaliation" for insuring signatures on petitions to get him on state ballots were legitimate.

Nader talks a lot about the rule of law but to him it only matters if it applies to someone else.

[LittleClarkie]

16. Why is he being such a rat bastard

Mr. Consumer Advocate should be pleased that we are holding him to that higher standard.

If his signatures are falsified, if he didn't have a proper convention in Florida, then he should be called on it. That doesn't make the Dem party corrupt, that makes them smart.

Is he this freakin' blind!? He WANTS another Bush presidency?!

[Chomskyite]

11. I honestly don't see where Bush is adding any voting bloc

Can you think of a single voting bloc that will turn out in enough numbers to offset the numbers Kerry will be adding to what Gore got. There simply aren't enough members of the Christian Right to compete with the numbers of Hispanics, Asians, and disgruntled military families that Kerry will reap.

Then you've got the unemployed and the underemployed in the heartland. They typically vote for Bush. If Kerry gets a third of them, it's over.

But how do you apply all this to an election you've got to win state-by-state?

[TruthIsAll]

15. AM Kick

tia

[Ishoutandscream]

17. TIA, when I'm feeling down, you bring me back up

Thanks for all of the great work. It won't be a landslide, but it won't be as close as many think. BUSH IS TOAST!!