Sam Wang: Kerry's Electoral College lead

[swag]

from: http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

"Results current as of Monday, September 13, 2004 6:00AM (click here for trends over time)

We now have a nearly full measure of the post-convention bounce - and a likely rebound. Kerry's lead in the Electoral College is nearing statistical significance. Note the mismatch between the electoral calculation and Bush's lead in national polls. Evidently, it is indeed possible for battleground states to diverge from overall national opinion. Finally, in terms of electoral votes, the Democratic convention bounce was three times the size of the Republican convention bounce - and longer-lasting.

Today's median (expected) outcome: Kerry 293 EV, Bush 245 EV (map)

Kerry 95% confidence band: 259-326 EV

Kerry Electoral College win likelihood: 89%"

[sendero]

1. I would love...

... to see Kerry be the last president elected by the electoral college rather than popular vote.

The electoral college is an anachronism that must be eliminated.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Oh, wow, that looks good -- thanks, swag! nt

[DeepModem Mom]

3. kick

[skooooo]

4. Boy..you wouldn't know it from watching CNN...

...All they talk about is how Bush's "bounce" is holding among likely voters. They are such shills. I hate mainstream media.