Likability factor: How big of an issue is it? Why does Bush have edge?

[prolesunited]

Likability may be Kerry's greatest hurdle

Forget the economy. It might just be the personality, stupid.

Swing voters don't like Sen. John Kerry much, one recent poll suggests, and that's just the latest survey pointing to a stubborn "personality gap" the Democratic challenger suffers in his race against President Bush. Some political analysts think simple likability is Kerry's greatest challenge as the presidential campaign enters its two-month stretch run.

A recent Zogby/Williams Identity Poll found that 57.3 percent of undecided or persuadable voters would rather have a beer with Bush than Kerry (the President doesn't drink alcohol). The same survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, found that 67 percent of undecided voters liked Bush - and 52 percent disliked Kerry, while nearly a third admitted they didn't know enough about him to say.

A more whimsical poll taken in late August for the American Kennel Club found that people would trust Bush more than Kerry to walk their dogs, by 51 percent to 37 percent.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/nation/9597802.htm?1c


I just don't get it. Why does Bush win in the polls based on likability? I look at him and see a smarmy, rich frat boy. I think of him thinking nothing of wiping his glasses on a talk show staffer's glasses and mocking people on death row.

Trust him with your dog!?!? I think of him dropping Barney, who's always trying to escape, and blowing up frogs as a child.

Why do people seem to have such a positive view of him? Why don't they have similar views of Kerry? How important is this going to be at the polls and what can Kerry do to change that?

[senseandsensibility]

1. As long as the sheeple have

a whore media telling them 24 hours a day that * is likable, there's not much we can do. At this point, we need to get *'s positives down in other areas, like leadership. Shouldn't be difficult if we had some attack dogs. There's so much to work with.

[Burma Jones]

2. A Lot of people like others to be dumber than them

There's a good line from Desolation Row in this vein -

Now at midnight all the agents
And the superhuman crew
Come out and round up everyone
That knows more than they do
Then they bring them to the factory
Where the heart-attack machine
Is strapped across their shoulders
And then the kerosene
Is brought down from the castles
By insurance men who go
Check to see that nobody is escaping
To Desolation Row

[mirandaod]

3. I can't understand it.

What could they possibly be basing this on? Can Americans be that easy to fool?
I wish I had some answers. I wish Kerry had some answers.

Edit: Maybe that Kitty Kelley book will do some good, if it's read by people who don't care about issues, only personalities.

[Francine Frensky]

4. Because of the media filter!!! Bush's true personality is

kept off the airways! How much media play is given to his rudeness, his condescencion, his airheaded-ness??? His mistakes???? His cruelty??? (I'd love to see someone edit togethor some clips of him smirking/smiling when he talks about death).

Rove has packaged this president for the average american, and it's obvious to us that the package doesn't represent the man, but it fools lots of people who don't have the time to really understand things. If you just read headlines, bush is a great president.

Bush is from Texas! He lives on a ranch! He likes to drink beer! He is kind but strong (compassionate conservative)! People like him!

Personally, the two people I know who will vote for Bush have both admited they don't really like him. But that's to me, not to a pollster.

I think in packaging, the repubs win hands down. And that's what you're seeing.

[liberal_in_GA]

7. exactly...

What would America think of him if the media actually showed his flippant "now watch this drive" golf clip after talking about terrorism?

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

45. Yes but even the * the media shows I'm not impressed with.

It was either Time or Newsweek with Bush on the cover that said, "No Excuses". Bullshit. The guy's nothing but excuses. Anything that doesn't go right on his watch is either blamed on 9/11 or the Clinton administration.

[Spinzonner]

5. Sort of like the dumb but loveable pet

[July]

6. Once again.

I'd rather have a beer with a guy who actually DRINKS beer.

Also, who is more likely to let one of us have a beer with him? Kerry, who goes out into the crowd, or George "R.S.V.P." (don't bother me if you're not invited) Bush?

[BeyondGeography]

8. It's become a nation of spoiled children

And Bush is Spoiled Child #1.

It doesn't matter that Bush is from a different social class. He clearly enjoys being an asshole, which is a trait that is widely shared, especially among white men, where he enjoys an enormous advantage over Kerry.

White guys have a hard time relating to Kerry because he is a poetry-reading war hero. He outflanks them in terms of toughness and compassion, making them realize right off the bat that they're looking at a superior human being. How hateful! He'll also bend over backwards to do the right thing, thus scoring dramatically lower on the Scale of Assholitude than the Scameister in Chief.

All of that costs John Kerry in terms of "likeability." And the country, too, for that matter.

[Julien Sorel]

9. A couple of factors.

He's wealthy, and people want to be wealthy. They envy it.

Although he's wealthy and grew up in privilege, he's obviously not all that special. People look at (more exactly, listen to) Bush and think, "If that guy can do it, I can."

I think his "story," of being a ne'er do well drunk/cokehead who woke up one day and decided to clean up his act is also quite appealing to people who know about it.

The media chip in as well. I've been reading some of the stuff from reporters who covered him during his first campaign, and it's obvious they like him and don't feel threatened by him. That's huge. You have to understand that most print journalists are modestly talented people who like to write, so they gravitate towards journalism. Journalists, I think more than most people, resent the truly talented, unless there's something there they can pick at to make them feel even. Clinton had his bubba thing, his love of junk food, his woman problems, his battles with his weight, his extremely humble beginning. It humanized him, and the media "forgave" him, if you will, his intellectual brilliance.

Clinton was also an absolute master at talking to the level of people around him, without seeming to talk down to them. I think his southern accent helped a lot in that respect. Bush is already at the level of your average journalist, perhaps even below them. So he starts out even.

[spooky3]

32. good points

[Robbien]

10. It is his use of religion

People see him as a religious man and therefore believe he is honest and trusts him.

[prolesunited]

20. How can you attack his misuse and distortion of religion

without appearing to attack religion itself?

[no_hypocrisy]

11. Likeability is a big factor. A lot of voters elect on their gut

instinct. These people are not informed about the issues except what they hear on the national network news (bias!), and the regular decisions they make in their lives are based on "a feeling".

A good book to look at is Emotional IQ, which explains why some people "succeed" in life despite their lack of intelligence, experience, and/or education. It's the way they make other people feel and the way other people like the way they are reflected by way of these sociable individuals.

Hitler (just an arbitrary example) made himself look like the protector of the average German, who was a sensitive man who was loved by the "Jederman" (Everyman), children, and dogs. The German people at the time accepted that he was speaking for them. No one in Germany would have believed (at the time) that he was involved in concentration camps and world domination. And if they did believe it, they would have also believed that Hitler did it for their benefit alone. That's what likeability can do when a heinous personality is in charge of a country.

[prolesunited]

13. As with Bush,

how big of a role do you think propaganda have in shaping that image? Why is it so effective?

[no_hypocrisy]

18. I believe it's a big role.

Electioneering is not much more different than commercial advertising on Madison Avenue with the difference being the product.

It is effective because for decades, Americans have been inured into accepting the underlying premise for most advertisements, whether print, electronic, or billboards. The trick is manipulation of the consumers into purchasing something they would not independently choose. For example, before cigarette ads were banned from television and radio, the underlying premises was "Smoke Marlboros, be a he-man cowboy, and be admired by others." When you examine an ad for luxury cars, the underlying message is "You have money and power. You are the Master of the Universe when people see you driving this car. You will be respected in your job and community. You will be recognized as having good judgment by your choice of cars.

The corollary is message of these ads is if you don't choose their products, you are a loser and you will sit on the sidelines while others (who purchased the product) will be the success you could have been.

Well, naturally, consumers want to be regarded as being terrific people and any product that enhances the image of themselves is attractive.

Now, about *'s likeability. Rove has tried to attach several symbols to his product. A vote for * is a vote for the flag, a vote for true faith in Christianity and Jesus, a vote for supporting the troops, a vote for independence from directives from third parties like the U.N., a vote for determination in finishing goals set, and a vote for the American people. So, therefore, a vote AGAINST * is a vote against America and Jesus. In order to make these implied symbols viable, the product has to be appealing to the consumer/voter.

Thus, * is seen as a "regular guy" who was compelled to seek higher office to help us, even the ones who voted against him. He smiles warmly. He wears a blue work shirt. He has a good handshake with eye contact. He is unassuming and unpretentious. He does not make you feel that he's better than you are. He is you.

And there's the rub. Psychologically, voting against * is self-mutilation, and you are not inclined to be self-destructive.

Rove has done his job well. The issues of the economy, the invasion/war, the deficit, the job losses, etc. are irrelevant. What is important is how the voter feels about the future. And * is so goshdarn likeable, that the voter believes that * can figure out how to fix everything.

And that's all the voter needs to know in order to vote for * and a republican Congress.

Watch the debates and see how often * will try to mug for the cameras as if to say "You know me. You like me. You trust me. Who's THIS guy?! A stranger. You know me. You like me. You trust me."

[Bridget Burke]

12. American Kennel Club?

So, these guys think Bush is trustworthy?



As a Texan, I've been exposed to Bush Jr for a long time. I never thought of him as anything but a spoiled, dumb fratboy. A mean-spirited creep. And I bet he's a mean drunk, too.

Kerry was also a child of privilege but he didn't waste his expensive education. Then he went on to make his way in the world. I wouldn't mind having a drink with the guy I saw on The Daily Show.

[RobinA]

14. My Take on This

is that people spend most of their free time watching entertainment these days. Entertainment values have become the values that they apply to everything. The election has become like a national American Idol contest. Everybody is judged by their performance - and the performance is judged by how entertaining it is. That's why John Kerry is "too dour" "too boring." George freakin' Washington couldn't get elected today, too elitest. It's rare that we will get a combination of brains and entertainment value, as per Clinton.

And I don't attribute any of this to propaganda, I blame it on the dumbing of America by television.

[CrispyQ]

16. So sad, but true! . . .

Entertain me so I don't have to put any effort into thinking things through my self & show me what's new to buy, even if it's the same old crap wrapped in a new package. And for crissakes, don't tell me I have to make any sacrifice for my country. All I wanna do is shop!

[spooky3]

31. I think you're right. And, if they go have a beer with Kerry, they'd

probably have to think about stuff like wars and economics, and he might win all the arguments. If they went with *, they could talk about sports all night.

[hexola]

15. The same reason they eat at McDonalds, watch CMT and listen to rap...

Mediocrity sells...

Plus you have been lucky enough to know some "frat boys" and have that as a reference to use later in life. Many dont have that reference or are on the other side of it. I went to a private boarding school - so yeah - I see Bush as the same kind of slime that I went to high school with...but that's me. Stuff like that is hard to relate to others...

[geek tragedy]

17. People like frat boys. n/t

[chiburb]

19. They asked the wrong questions...

If they had asked:

1. With whom would you rather have a martini, Kerry would be at 57%.

2. Who would you trust to CARRY your dog would've reversed the numbers in Kerry's favor.

[spanone]

21. I don't think he does, I LIKE Kerry much more than the asshole bush*

Some people just like a smart-ass and bush* is certainly a smart-ass. And not a very smart one.

[andym]

22. Key to the election

Likability is the key to modern American politics.
American presidency has become more like high school class presidency.
My guess is that charismatic actor types (like the Governator) have the best chance of winning election in America.

Bush does not have the likability ratings/charisma of a Clinton or Reagan. But he plays to his strengths well: his very mediocrity is his greatest strength and he emphasizes it continually. He also has an established public persona "honest, Christian, etc" that protects him from many attacks.

Kerry can be as likable as Bush. He needs more time on late night talk shows etc-- relaxed and funny alternating with serious and determined. Probably getting late in the game for this. He also has to be careful in giving long, "wordy" answers to questions-- his Senate background works against him. BTW, Kerry can deliver one liners just fine. He does need more consistently good material from his staff.

Also note that Kerry defeated the more likeable/charismatic Edwards in the primaries, so Kerry has enough intrinsic likeability to win.

[shivaji]

41. Agree and Disagree.................

Agree on everything you said except Kerry beat Edwards
for one reason and one reason only.....democrats wanted
a man who had military background in these days filled with
terrorism. Every campaign stop of Kerry began by introduction
by his Viet-Nam buddies. Edwards never saw inside of a military
compound.

[chiburb]

23. Back to page one... n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

24. If Kerry loses, it will be due to likability

I've hosted enough debate watching parties to know how underrated personal qualities can be, among casual voters who tune in only during the fall campaign. They are looking for an ideal big brother or next door neighbor type, not someone who can recite the tax codes. Very important that Kerry has the Gore example in that regard, heading into the debates.

Here are more samples of related polls:

* By a margin of 51 percent to 28 percent, voters say they would rather spend "an hour" with Mr. Bush.

*When we asked who voters would rather "see their kids or their friends children grow up to be most like," the president again is the clear choice (43 percent to 29 percent).

Human nature guarantees that someone considered more likable is given a preferential nod almost across the board, accounting for Bush's edge in poll categories that Kerry is obviously superior in.

[Doosh]

25. "You're not chosign a drinking buddy, you're chosing a President"

that's what we need to beat into the sheeple's head.

[MsTryska]

26. It really scares me.....

some of the comments i've heard...

"kerry's ugly - i don't like the long face"

"his face just isn't trustworthy" I countered with "yeah like cheney can be trusted farther than you can throw him" and got - "oh cheney..cheney's got more experience than either of them...i'd vote for him in a heartbeat" :o

[RobinA]

27. Shoot Me Now

"When we asked who voters would rather "see their kids or their friends children grow up to be most like," the president again is the clear choice (43 percent to 29 percent)."

This, to me, is unfathomable. Unspeakable. There truly is no hope.

[DeepModem Mom]

28. Posted this in another "likeability" thread, need to combat this sh##!

If they're determined to keep the country in perpetual fear, the country should wake up and realize that "likeable" is not what is needed. Strong and responsible is what is needed. Now they also try to convince us that Bush is both strong and likeable, when he is, in fact, neither. Kerry is plenty likeable enough -- but he is also the man who went to Viet Nam, commanded a vessel meant to draw enemy fire, amounted to something as a young man, was a fighting prosecutor, served responsibly for years in the Senate, knows his stuff about world issues and national security, and jumped in the water and SAVED his daughters' GD hamster! (As a parent, I would also point out that those little girls grew up to be women of substance, direction and caring.)

I wish we could sell what Kerry is, instead of trying to make him something else. I supported another candidate in the primary, but the more I know about Kerry, the more impressed I am.

[meow2u3]

42. Theodore Bundy was "very likable"

Most sociopaths are seen as "likable"; that's their way of concealing their stark depravity. Bush/Cheney are no different.

[Davis_X_Machina]

29. It's not because he's likeable...

...it's because he's not likeable.

See the essay Spite Vote for details...

One look at Bush and you'll know why: Bush is the privileged frat-boy/jock asshole that every spiteful male recognizes from his school days. Spiteful males may have supported him in the past, but only because Bush's cartoonish stupidity gave a daily dose of stomach cramps to the responsible, concerned Americans who voted for Gore. And really, what white male in his spiteful mind could possibly have voted for Al Gore, with that pained "Am I pleasing you?" smile he beamed at you? Spiteful white males don't want to be pleased—they want other people to be displeased.

[prolesunited]

30. What a fascinating read

I need more time to digest it, but this point seemed to be spot on:

The left won't accept this awful truth about the American soul, a beast that they believe they can fix "if only the people knew the Truth."

But what if the Truth is that Americans don't want to know the Truth? What if Americans consciously choose lies over truth when given the chance—and not even very interesting lies, but rather the blandest, dumbest and meanest lies? What if Americans are not a likeable people? The left's wires short-circuit when confronted with this terrible possibility; the right, on the other hand, warmly embraces Middle America's rank soul and exploits it to their full advantage.

[rumguy]

33. that's a mind-fuck of an article

the only good thing about it is that it posits that Kerry actually stands a chance - because he's like Nixon!

[prolesunited]

34. How much of it, if any,

do you think is valid?

[uhhuh]

40. This is an excellent analysis

[PaDem]

35. This is so irritating..........

We're hiring a President here, not a drinking buddy.

[Leilani]

36. So much of this is due to the image makers behind the scene

And Kerry s have not done a very good job.

I found out last night that Kerry has a German Shepard named Cym.

Where is Cym? Get him out there. And I am not kidding.

Discovery Channel last nite had a 2 hr documentary on the conventions..interesting stuff...showed how Bush team was more effective at putting on their convention.

[Awsi Dooger]

37. Someone mentioned Cym in a "likability" thread of mine today

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x802542#802633

Also, a reporter mentioned last week that Bush always plays to the regular guy crowd by wearing open collar shirts, while Kerry is either in a suit or dress shirt with tie. I'm not sure his image makers get it.

[shivaji]

38. Yes which is why Kerry must run a stealth campaign

It is a well known fact that Kerry does not connect
with his audience ala Edwards/Dean. The less he is
exposed, the better his chances in November. All Kerry
needs to win is let the anti-Bush sentiment do it for him.

[PurityOfEssence]

39. It's not "it's the personality, stupid", it's "it's the stupid personality

People like hanging around with folks who are dumber than they are; it suckers them into thinking they have a chance. Anti-intellectualism is deeply rooted in our national psyche, and hucksters play it for all it's worth.

Hey, I ain't no threat.

Can you listen to any radio DJ for more than an hour in an interview without having him/her play the endearingly dumb card? Someone mentions something about long-division and they shrug something to the effect of never having gotten that math stuff.

It's also linked in a sick way with the selfish personality cult of the celebrity that's so pervasive in this country: they want to remind you what they've worked against, and how you must love them for being such an extraordinary creature; they must be god's gift to whatever, otherwise how could they have gotten so far with that limitation? Talk to any narcissist for a few minutes, and you'll find out just how incredibly special they are: special allergies, extraordinary physical abilities, peculiar distastes in food and any number of odd anomalies that set them up as godlike critters whom you should swoon to be allowed to know.

Disgusting.

[Rockygabriel]

43. Remember Weld

In 1996, in his Senate re-election bid against William Weld, a popular sitting governor, Kerry ended up in an old-fashioned dogfight.

Kerry called Weld the ideological soul mate of Newt Gingrich; Weld supporters questioned the loyalty of Kerry's new wife Pittsburgher Teresa Heinz, a Republican to Massachusetts.

Heinz was also suspect because she was rich, which Kerry addressed with humor. How do you like Massachusetts? Kerry jokingly asked Heinz at a St. Patrick's Day event staged for reporters. I love Massachusetts, Heinz responded. How much is it?

Though the polls sometimes showed the race in a dead heat or with Kerry even trailing, Kerry eventually won by a seven-point margin, with fifty-two percent of the vote.

Thanks for the memories,
Rocky aka Leslie Gabriel:headbang:

[foo_bar]

44. I'd rather have Bush walk my dog

for her to poop on! I keed!