New EV Count: Kerry 269 Bush 233 - New Zogby Maine Poll

[indyjones1938]

www.electoral-vote.com


43/43 in Maine with 3% to Nader.

[rndmprsn]

1. Maine WTF?!

[59millionmorons]

2. Not worried about Maine

It's even better news though. They forgot to post the new Columbus Dispatch poll for Ohio that is now tied at 46% each. This will bring Bush's number down to 213.

[NinetySix]

4. Could you provide a link to that Dispatch story?

Please and thank you.

[DarthDem]

12. Right!

Did anyone e-mail him to ask him why he didn't include that? It must be older, in terms of the midpoint date of the sample, than the Survey USA one he currently has posted for Ohio.

[rpannier]

3. I'll take the 50-50 Maine

If we get the Colorado, which is barely Kerry.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. All we'd need is that one EV from the heavily Democratic Maine district

Remember, Maine is split.

[Dawgs]

6. Don't worry...

There are many states where Kerry has lead in almost every poll taken. Maine is one of those states.

There are also many states where Bush has been leading almost the whole time. West Virginia is one of those states.

Kerry will win his and Bush will win his. The states to be concerned about are Arkansas, Colorado, Ohio, Tennessee.

My personal feeling is hat Kerry will carry all states where the polls are close. There are to many new voters that will vote for Democrat.

That would put him around 344 electorial votes.

[maine_raptor]

7. Can an Actual, True, Mainer speak her?

Ahm folks, I hate to have to clue ya,


BUT THE POLL IS SPOT ON!!!!!

Lots of air time by the opposition, Bush's goring (flop-flop & "McCarthyism") of Kerry is having an effect. Edwards appearance last week in Orono helped, but the GOP has sent in at least 2 for every one 1 Dem heavy weight.

In addition there is a Tax Cap referendum on the ballot, modeled after prop 13, that is going to bring out folks that will tend to vote for Bush (his being for cutting THEIR taxes also, they think).

Now on the good news side:

Two very good LTTE's in today's Bangor Daily News (#'s 1 & 3, 2 is about the tax cap), both claiming to be Repub votes now voting anti-Bush (ie Kerry). One, the gentleman from Starks, made some damm fine points, too.

link:
http://www.bangornews.com/editorialnews/article.cfm?ID=434696

[JackintheGreen]

8. Some perspective

Keep in mind that electoral-vote slants left. Another site (updated yesterday) that slants right isn't so rosy.

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Just keep it in mind folks.

[DarthDem]

9. For the 100th Time . . . .

While the "votemaster" is a Kerry supporter, he uses all polls except those that are obvious push jobs. The numbers reflected are simply the results of an aggregate of the most recent state polls. So, there is no bias in his projection whatsoever. If you feel otherwise, please let us know how you arrived at that conclusion.

[maine_raptor]

10. And it supports what I am saying too

Maine (district 1) Kerry by 5.28%
Maine (district 2) Kerry by 1.14%

And the pro-Tax Cap will be heaviest in district 1.

Maine splits it's electoral votes.

1 for the winner in each district, and 2 for overall.

So that means, even it Kerry wins district 1 and the total vote, he could still be giving up 1 EV to Bush. And in a race this close, do you REALLY think we can afford to give up ONE EV?

[Doosh]

16. I guess we could if we took New Hampshire this time around

it would still be a net gain from 2000

[NWHarkness]

11. Gee thanks

I would hate to go through my day with any feelings of hope or optimism.

[maine_raptor]

13. LOL....How about quite confidence tinged with realism?

[Bleacher Creature]

14. Awwww! Maybe Mainers are just sentimental.

Isn't there where our beloved Commander in Chief had his first DUI?

[Doosh]

15. Maine was like this in 2000, it'll eventually tip to Kerry

and he'll win it by 4-5 points, NH is the state I'd be worried about. We should be able to win it this time around.

I can't believe Washington is "weak" Kerry, he leads by 8!