Monday Rasmussen tracking poll Bush 47% Kerry 46%

[WI_DEM]

The race is still too close to call, but yesterday they had Kerry down 48-45.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[kstewart33]

1. Looking good!

A relief after the 3-point difference over the weekend. But I'm beginning to wonder if these polls really count for anything, one way or the other.

[BootinUp]

2. National polls can indicate trends I believe

but when the race is this close its probably not a good indicator of who is ahead in electoral votes.

[WI_DEM]

4. When it is this close and if either Kerry or Bush are up by 1 or 2

points on election day it will come down to who gets out their voters on November 2nd.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

3. Great news. BIG recovery for Kerry

.

[MallRat]

6. Not surprising. THERE'S A REASON WHY THEY CALL IT A BOUNCE.

Convention bounces don't last.
They NEVER last.

Keep your heads about you, and keep working hard, folks. We can win this thing!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[papau]

5. Remeber 2000?

http://64.233.161.104/search?q=cache:uyli5GgxnM0J:brian.carnell.com/articles/2000/11/000015.html+rasmussen+poll&hl=en

Bush Up By 7 Points in Rasmussen Poll

By Brian Carnell

Monday, November 6, 2000

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting look at how well polls do in close elections. Throughout the nomination process, Rasmussen Research was the most accurate and I personally find their methods to be a lot better than those used by competing services such as Gallup.

While CNN and other media outlets have Gore and Bush at statistical dead heats, the Rasmussen poll has Bush beating Gore 48 to 41 percent, and has shown Bush with a consistent lead over Gore since mid-October.

As the polling service puts it on their Portrait of America web site,


A review of our tracking data over the past seven months indicates that Campaign 2000 has not been a volatile whirlwind as reported in many media outlets. Partisan voters knew back in March how they would vote. Less partisan voters have been gradually making up their minds over the past seven months in a manner that is anything but volatile.

The interesting thing is the possibility of Bush not just winning the popular vote but winning it by several percentage points but losing the election. If Gore can just barely squeak by in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and a few other states, he could lose the popular vote by 2 or 3 percentage points and still win the election (and to my mind a Republican-controlled Congress with a Democratic president who actually received fewer votes than his Republican challenger would fascinating to watch over the next four years).

2004

Date Bush Kerry
Today 47.2 46.4
Sept 12 48.3 45.2
Sept 11 47.5 46.1
Sept 10 47.8 46.2
Sept 9 47.5 46.8
Sept 8 48.2 46.5
Sept 7 47.3 47.3
Sept 6 47.6 46.5
Sept 5 47.6 46.4

[WI_DEM]

7. So are you trying to discredit the Rasmussen poll?

I'm aware that they were wildly off base in 2000. But he acknowledged this himself and says he has taken steps to correct them. So far I've found his poll to be the fairest I've seen since the conventions. Bush up but not by 9 or 11 points like Gallup or Time want to assert by interviewing more Republicans than Democrats and not just a few more. I think it would be nice if those polls were discredited for being wildly off base rather than a poll which shows a tight race which in all actuality it is.

[papau]

8. No - I "discredit" nothing - but I do check before I allow myself to

feel either good or bad.

Indeed I am a Zogby fan - but even his state polls have error margins larger than I would like to see (I'm talking historical errors- not MOE)

Indeed Ras was consistent in 2000, and is consistent now - and trend is really what I want to know from his poll!

:-)

I believe after the first Debate - if we can prevent the media from using choice of words/choice of story and bias spin to change whatever the result into a "GREAT VICTORY FOR BUSH BECAUSE HE IS LIKEABLE" (these stories are already written and in the can by our whore media - waiting for release 30 minutes after te first debate begins), Kerry will win by a large margin.

But it really depends on the media whores- which why this time the reaction will not be against Banks and Guard facilities as in 68, but,I suspect, against those in the media.

[WI_DEM]

9. kick