Likely voters vs. Registered voters? what does it all mean

[WI_DEM]

Almost every poll shows Kerry doing better among registered voters than among likely voters. Why is this? Does it mean that the GOP base is more fired up about voting than the Democratic base? With Bush as the candidate I would have thought that would be enough reason for our base to turn out in droves. But the new Fox poll which has Bush up by four among likely voters and neck and neck among registered voters shows that Bush leads among GOP voters by 94-3 percent while among Dems Kerry is ahead by only 80-9 percent. Meaning Bush is getting 3x the Dems that Kerry is getting among Republicans and is getting better than 9 out of 10 Republicans while Kerry is only getting 8/10 Democrats. This is astonishing to me.

Among independents Kerry has a slight edge of 42-40 percent.

What can we do to fire up our base? or are we already doing all we can?

[rsmith6621]

1. Its

Just another mechanism of our MEDIA to divide us and get us to believe their bullsh_t

[cally]

2. At this point in the election,

likely voters are those who consistently vote. Every pollster does it differently but all (I think) only consider those who have voted before. The polls now are not taking into account new voters and newly motivated voters. Soon, all the pollsters will come up with some questions to guage who is likely to vote. Those are the polls I'm waiting for.

[giant_robot]

5. I think you're exactly right

I myself have not voted since 1992 and have never been politically active until the run-up to the war in Iraq. I know two people who turned against Bush on the gay marriage issue and will be voting in November (one of them is a first time voter).

I know this is all anecdotal evidence, but it seems that Bush has done more than anyone else to get out the vote by pissing people off.

[Mr Blond]

3. Just what it sounds like...

"Likely voters" means the poll contains those who are likely to vote. (Thus giving a bit clearer picture into what moods are out there come election day). "Registered voters" might be those who have been registered for years, but aren't really dedicated enough to vote every time. (Thus, a bit more unreliable as far as polling goes.)

Bottom line...Don't worry about any poll. Just get out there and work for the Dems the best you can, regardless of the polls.

[tcfrogs]

4. Exactly

my wife is a registered voter, but I kind of doubt she'll vote. She generally doesn't.

[Mr Blond]

6. Well...Time to take her out for a nice lunch...

...and then stop off at your polling place on the way back.

:)

[Dem Agog]

9. You are here at DU and you let your wife not vote?

I drag my husband to our polling place. I filled out his registration for him and just had him sign it. I've never missed an election. He rarely votes at all. He knows that on 11/2 we will both be going to vote TOGETHER.

[tcfrogs]

12. Points well taken

However, I do live in Chicago, Illinois, and don't think her vote will matter for Kerry/Obama/R. Emanuel.

I'll have another talk with her when it gets closer to 11/2 - she doesn't like to talk politics much.

[qwlauren35]

7. From what I've been told...

A likely voter has voted in the last 2 out of three presidential elections. That rules out ALL voters under 22. It rules out all of the people who registered for the first time in 2000. It rules out all convicted felons who just got off parole or just got their voting rights back.

How can we fire up the base? Person-to-person contact works best. Talk to the newly registered. Offer them information, help them get to the polls, make sure they know the rules about bringing ID's or voter registration cards, what time they must arrive, etc. Nearer the election, have paper ballots on hand to show them what it may look like and how they can select candidates.

We're going to need to do some hand-holding. People need to believe that their votes will count. This year, in many states, it could come down to a handful, and votes will count (and be counted) like they never have in years.

We need to make sure people know this, and know how important it is for them to get to the polls.

AND LAST - we need to make sure people realize that we CAN WIN.

That may be the most important point of all.

[spanone]

8. I would assume that 'registered voters' are more 'likely' to vote!

[qwlauren35]

10. P.S. Consider the Source, please...

Did you really expect FOX News to report that Kerry is on top?

Kerry could have a 10% lead in every OTHER poll and Fox would still report that he's losing.

Don't believe the hype.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. I always wondered about this myself, how did they determine "likely"?

If it is by actually considering whether their respondent had voted in the past, that is valid but does not take into account new or newly motivated voters.

If it is by simply asking a question like "how likely are you to vote in NOV" then I'm not sure how valid it is.

[tritsofme]

13. This is what Gallup says about their Likely Voter model

Gallup tries to avoid the lack-of-interest problem by specifying that 55% of its sample (which corresponds with a 55% projected turnout in the election) will be considered likely voters. Gallup asks each respondent seven LV screening questions, and gives each person an LV score of 0 to 7. The top 55% are classified as likely voters. This classification works even if interest is low early in the year, because low-interest respondents are considered likely voters as long as they are in the top 55% of the sample on the overall LV scale.

[Richardson08]

14. First time voters

Many people who just turned 18 are registering to vote and they will vote and many of them will vote for Kerry

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

15. YES

[DaveinMD]

16. Republicans

are always considered to be more likely to vote. This is because historically, older and wealthier votes tend to vote more reliably. Some elections see greater turnout and these models prove to be less reliable than in most elections.