Shhh... here's how Kerry will win in a landslide.....54-45%...quiet...

[TruthIsAll]

This was the vote breakdown in 2000.						

	2000	All	Gore	Gore%	Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
	White	81%	42%	34.0%	54%	43.7% 0%	3%	2.43%
	Black	10%	90%	9.00%	9%	0.90%	0%	1%	0.10%
	Hisp	7%	62%	4.34%	35%	2.45%	1%	2%	0.14%
	Asian	1%	55%	0.55%	41%	0.41%	1%	3%	0.03%
	Other	1%	55%	0.55%	39%	0.39%	0%	4%	0.04%
	    100%             48.46%         47.89%            2.74%
										
										
										
Assume Kerry gets 1% of the Bush military vote,				
1% from F9/11 converts,								
1% from the unemployed, underemployed or outsourced,			
1% from motivated energized newly registered democrats,		
the bulk of Nader votes, more Hispanics and more Asians than
Gore did.

Reasonable?										
	
It’s a Kerry landslide.	 He's gonna get 48% of the white
vote.									

	2004	All	Kerry	Kerry% Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
	White	78%	48%	37.4%	51%	39.8% 0%	1%	0.78%
	Black	10%	90%	9.00%	9%	0.90%	0%	1%	0.10%
	Hisp	9%	66%	5.94%	33%	2.97%	0%	1%	0.09%
	Asian	2%	57%	1.14%	41%	0.82%	0%	2%	0.04%
	Other	1%	59%	0.59%	39%	0.39%	0%	2%	0.02%
		100%	      54.11%      	44.86%              1.03%

[cthrumatrix]

1. I'll take it... there are soo many repugs which can't stand shrubya

[SayitAintSo]

2. Hey Truth .... you keep my spirits up !

Thanks for all your hard work on these numbers and projections .... Are the Kerry folks listening ?

[kentuck]

3. You blew it, TIA !

You were supposed to keep that a secret. That's why all the polls are trying their damnedest to pull Bush up by the straps and try to even it out somewhat...They know Kerry is going to win in a landslide. :)

[rocktivity]

4. When you say military vote, do you mean active troops or veterans?

And do you believe that 99% of them are going to vote for an AWOL commander in chief?

:headbang:
rocknation

[elperromagico]

8. He believes that Kerry can claim 1% of Bush's military support,

not that Kerry will only get 1% of the overall military vote.

Or at least, that's what I hope he believes.

[TruthIsAll]

10. I mean that he will get 1% of the military who voted for Bush.

Sounds conservative, doesn't it? That's because I don't want to get you all too excited.

One percent from a few voting blocks like those I mentioned will do it.

And don't forget the energized dems who didn't vote last time.

[TruthIsAll]

22. Let me clarify the 1%. Each of the 4 groups mentioned

will ADD 1% to the Kerry total while Bush will DROP 1%.

We can assume these are all WHITE voters.

Assume military/vet families comprise 20% of the total vote. They would normally go for Bush by 70-30%, so he'd get 14% of the 20% (Kerry would get 6%).

But Bush will NOT get 70% this time. Lets say he gets 65%. I believe he will get 50%, but I want to be conservative. Now the 20% is split 13% for Bush, 7% for Kerry, a pickup of 1% for him.

It's actually a net 2% pickup, since Kerry is +1% and Bush is -1%.

Hope that makes sense.

[yellerpup]

5. I'm absolutely sure you are right.

Great work on the numbers. Thanks.

[Tsiyu]

6. I'm Truthisall and I approve this message

me too :kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

7. I think that's too close in the white vote

From 54-42% to 51-48%. Our deficit among white males is not going to allow that much of a narrowing.

[TruthIsAll]

11. But those white females love Edwards...

And its mostly white males who are vets or in the military.

tia

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Agreed, we need a huge turnout among single white females

They mostly stayed home in 2000

[BuelahWitch]

19. This white female doesn't want her rights taken away

Edwards could have the face of Quasimodo and I'd vote for him over Bush
just so I'm not forced into a concentration camp for being over 40 unmarried and childless!

[AlCzervik]

9. Once again, thank you TIA, we dont say that enough

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

12. Mr. Moonbeam and I are two

who voted third party in 2000 who are voting Dem all the way this time.

So is my best friend.

And her mom.

And her dad.

And my normally repuke voting in laws are voting Libertarian this time.

I could go on and on. But you get the picture.

[gordianot]

13. Do not forget MTV

My thirteen year old daughter tells me the in crowd is for Kerry. Rappers are not just energizing kids in the city, they are having positive impact on kids in the suburbs and the rural (white)kids around St. Louis. I have been told by this same daughter how much she wishes she can be 18 and vote. I suspect the youth vote is going to surprise us all.

I am developing a new appreciation of rap with my daughter and am very pleased with the positive role model.

Put down another 1 percent for the 18 year old MTV crowd that would not have voted.

[Doohickie]

26. My son misses voting by a few months,

But several of his friends are eligible. And even here in Texas, a good chunk of that crowd is voting Kerry.

My son said they are actually allowing students to wear political campaign t-shirts in his public high school (as long as they are not otherwise against the rules are are "for" their favored candidate, not "against" the other guy). He sees lots of Kerry.

[Clinton Crusader]

15. brilliant work, TIA. I have a question...

what will everyone do on election night when that magic moment arrives when whomever you are watching says

"we project John F. Kerry the winner and the next President of The United States"?

I think I will break down in tears on my living room floor or open all my windows and start screaming.
:dem: :kick:

[katmondoo]

16. ME TOO!!

[kentuck]

18. Out of joy or sorrow ??

:)

[Clinton Crusader]

20. joy, orgasmic unbridled joy

and sheer fucking relief that criminal lying bastard is GONE! We may even go down for the Inauguration, we went to Clinton's first and it was really magical, sounds stupid, but it was really amazing. We recorded it on a hand held voice activated recorder and our reactions when we heard 'Hail To The Chief' being played and the cannons (we were too far away to see) booming, we knew he was then President and the whoops of joy from the crowd still give me goosebumps when I listen to it.
:kick:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

17. I will be in a restaurant in Wilmington, Ohio...

This is a somewhat conservative town in Southern Ohio. I will be traveling on business, and the guy I travel with is a former Bush voter, he converted from Repub to Dem on the day Bush declared war on Iraq.

We always go to the same restaurant -- it's either that or a fast food place -- it's a sports-type restaurant/bar with 3 huge TV screens. They have one screen dedicated to an interactive trivia game, and the other 2 screens are usually one sports, one news.

On this night I'm sure they will have election returns on, probably Faux, which seems to be their news channel of choice.

How sweet will it be to be there when Kerry is declared the winner? I can't even imagine....

Of course after last year, just because Kerry is declared the winner, I won't believe it until the election is certified (by Cheney? Ha!).

[Clinton Crusader]

21. Here's a question...

Who's the Sec of State in FLA now?? Is it STILL the campaign chair for * ? :grin:
:kick:

[MsTryska]

43. I will thank god roomie and I

don't have to save up the money to rent a uhaul and move to canada and have to start experiencing winter again.



err...edit - "good" in the title = god.

[michigandem2]

45. I will be home that night

watching intently...hoping its a quick and easy win for him...and yes I will probably break down in tears becasue this is such an important deal here...it will be a big relief for me..and for many, and i believe he will win...by a MUCH larger margain than the media will ever let us know

[restorefreedom]

23. sure if they don't effing steal the effing election..

again.

[TruthIsAll]

24. Listen, do you want to know a secret? Do you promise not to tell?

Kerry in a walk...

[Kukesa]

27. My lips are sealed! Thanx for the inside info; I'm happy. n/t

[TruthIsAll]

25. Entirely plausible. NOT wishful thinking...

tia

[okieinpain]

28. hate to be the bad guy, but those numbers have to be in the right

states.

[TruthIsAll]

29. With 54%, he can't help but win the right states. 400+ EV worth.

If he just gets 51%, he wins easy..
tia

[ItsMyParty]

30. I think there's a certain part of that white vote you're not considering

We lost a number of females to Bush because of fear. We lost some of our white males to Bush because of the war/troops rah rah thing. We first have to either get them back and add a few more; or we have to get a goodly chunk to replace them and add. We did not keep everybody from last time, unfortunately. Otherwise the polls (flawed as they may be) would already be reflecting Kerry leading.

[klingel]

31. Damn the facts

[TruthIsAll]

32. The polls understate Kerry's support. The only question is: how much?

I think Kerry core support is quiet right now.

He will do at least as well as Gore did. A landslide is very possible.

[saracat]

38. The latest Harris poll released today in the WSJ has Kerry leading.

This is one of the most reliable polls and one of the largest samplings.The WSJ has no love for us so it must be true.

[cthrumatrix]

44. bingo

[TruthIsAll]

33. Memo kick

tia

[Mr_Spock]

34. Post whore

:)

[TruthIsAll]

35. Post whore? WTF? Explain.

tia

[neonplaque]

37. Self promotion ...

by kicking your own thread. :) But it deserves exposure so here's another kick. I hope your analysis proves true.

[jsw_81]

36. I just don't see Kerry winning 54 percent of the vote

The fact of the matter is that no Democratic candidate since 1964 -- not even Clinton -- has managed to win 51 percent, much less 54 percent; I think it's much more likely that Kerry will get around 48-49 percent of the popular vote and a slim majority in the electoral college. But we still have a month and a half to go and I suppose that anything's possible.

[TruthIsAll]

42. Clinton won by 8% over Dole, 49-41. That's 55% of the 2-party vote.

The Dems have averaged 52.6% of the 2-party vote in the last 3 elections.

They are more motivated than ever.
Bush is the worst pres. in history.
Young voters will come out in droves for Kerry.
Repubs/military are deserting Bush.

That's the truth.

[Andromeda]

39. Everytime you post one of these great ...

vote breakdowns I...:bounce: That's how enthusiastic I get.

[DemBones DemBones]

40. Article at CounterPunch suggests we may be the new

silent majority -- people who will vote for Kerry but aren't telling everyone that because they don't want to be attacked by vicious RWers. I'm sure up for a Dem landslide!

[liberal N proud]

41. Don't be afraid. Most right wingers can only repeat the talking points

they heard on FAUX news the night before.
If you hit them with facts and can back them up, you sqwash thier rhetoric instantly.
Kerry needs all the voices he can get.
Just get the facts and confront the neo-cons.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

46. We need a lot of these Bush voters to switch

just a little bit puts us over the top.