Newsweek polled 390 Republicans, 300 Democrats, 270 Independents.

[blm]

This little blurb from the Newsweek poll says it all about their polls, doesn't it?

__________

Over 1000 registered voters were polled, of which about 390 were Repulicans, 300 were Democrats and 270 were Independents. The phone poll was conducted on Sept. 9 and 10.

[sundancekid]

1. newsweek and newsweek poll meet mockery and travesty

and then we have to suffer through all the DU hand wringing over this kind of UTTER IDIOCY ...

[rndmprsn]

2. methodology is f#cked up

[bushwakker]

3. i don't understand this stuff. why?

[GaryL]

6. Likely voters.

Zogby dispensed with this methodology handily, but hack mags like this count pugs as more "likely" to vote. Therefore, the greater number. It's bull, of course

[sonicx]

8. They don't weight their polls

dems have bigger election turnout, so good polls give dems a weight of 3 or 4% higher than repubs. newsweek and others don't.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

12. Do dems actually turn out more? I thought Dems had higher registration

but Repubs turned out more, at least I'd heard that. I'm not sure what is true.

None of this takes into account what happens when a prez has screwed up big and people are pissed and turn out extra to boot his ass out. Any model that relies overly on the most recent election or so that doesn't take this kind of factor into account risks obsolecense.

[sonicx]

16. The US has more democratics than republicans but

the repubs have higher *percent* turnout within their party (for example, 80% of repubs may turn out, while only 75% of democrats may turn out).

But if dems had a percent turnout that matched repubs, we'd pretty much rule the country. :)

[Zen Democrat]

4. Do you have a link for that? The Newsweek story I read doesn't mention it

[blm]

9. Look at this poll

It's a throwaway question that they added to their polling, but it was taken at the same time they polled for their election results.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5992918/

[Just Me]

5. Bah!! Kerry will win by a landslide!!!

But,seriously, folks,...the pendulum will NOT swing back to center or better if we fail to confront reality: this election is about winning, period. I am a principled person, a moral person, a "real" compassionate. However, when I face an opposition whose only "principle" is to win,...I accept that the game is no longer about merely living or defending "values",...it's about taking a stand against those who would destroy the beacon of everything we have struggled and suffered and fought for during our mere slice of existence.

These arrogant, greedy, power-mongering, anti-democracy despots MUST BE TAKEN DOWN!!!

[maverick hombre]

7. What about FAIR?

Someone said it right that these corporate news media are too full of shit. Does anyone think its a good idea to start campaigning against these lies America is being spoonfed? I heard about this organization that's supposed to be a media watchdog called FAIR.

Please let me know what suggestions anyone has so we can confront this fablesome phenomenon embraced by CNN, FOX, Reuters, and nearly everyone but CBS? This is an area where some real ACTION needs to be taken. What can be done?

[Kathy in Cambridge]

11. Fair.org and mediamatters.org

two very good watchdog websites

[newyawker99]

17. Hi maverick hombre!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DemMother]

10. I tried to weight the poll, but I have no idea what I'm doing

I figured that with those numbers it was about 40% R, 31% Dem and then I forgot how many independents--28%, I think (I did this a couple of days ago and couldn't find the paper).

If you redo the numbers, giving the Rs and Ds equally partisan percentages of about 90/10 (which I think is realistic) and take the Newsweek figure of a slight lead for Kerry; then adjust the numbers to a few point Democratic advantage (like in 2000), Kerry is leading. This might be completely wrong. My math skills are tapped out helping my 7th grader with algebra. Maybe someone out there could figure it out. I think the independents were 45 to 42 for Kerry.

Donkey Rising had a professor who analyzed the last Gallup poll. He said:

"If you assume that Democrats, Republicans, and independents in their LV sample voted about the same way as Dems, Reps, and indies in their RV sample (see their "dissecting the vote" analysis on the Gallup website), which was 90-7 Kerry for Dems, 49-46 Kerry for indies, and 90-7 Bush for Reps, in order to have the overall result come out 52-45 Bush there would have to be about a TEN point Republican advantage in party id among LVs. (If you assume 30 percent Dems, 40 percent Reps, and 30 percent indies, for example, with those Bush and Kerry percentages, you end up with almost exactly a 52-45 Bush lead.) Now that is ridiculous. Does anyone really believe that Republicans are going to have a 10 point advantage among 2004 voters?"

I think it applies to this poll too, which actually does seem to give the repubs an almost ten point advantage.

http://emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/index.php
(scroll almost to the bottom)

Another observation--in the post in MyDD.com he says he's looking for the internals for a few polls, including Gallup. Clearly they're not easy to find--if the professor on donkey rising had to guess.

[sonicx]

14. what i do is...

take the 2000 weights(39-35-26) and multiply kerry and bush's percent of the corresponding partisan internals.

for kerry for example, if the internals say kerry got 90% of the dem vote, 5% of the repub vote, and 50% of the indie vote. it would be

.9 X 39 = 35.1
.05 X 35 = 1.75
.5 X 26 = 13

Total = 49.85% vote for Kerry

:)

[DemMother]

15. Thanks...

I took the total and readjusted it using 39D, 35R and I think 27I (using 960 as the total voters). But I think I ended up with about a 51 percent for Kerry.
I'll save those handy formulas.

[kentuck]

13. That's 9% more Repubs than Dems polled , FWIW ?

Seems a little off kilter to me... :shrug: Why would they weigh it heavy at the top with Repubs??? Does that make it balance out in some way??

[WI_DEM]

18. and yet this same poll showed Kerry cutting Bush's lead from 11 to 6

Why are they interviewing 90 more Republicans? do they really think that the GOP turnout will be that much stronger?