MyDD: Kerry Isn't Losing (dissecting the polls)

[sonicx]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/13/155019/099#readmore

I may have grown delusional, but I really believe this now.
I do not have enough internals from recent polls, or enough of an argument about the steady nature of Party ID to prove the title of this article conclusively, but I have managed to track down internals from six of the ten most recent national trial heats (ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, Newsweek and Rasmussen). My analysis of these six internals leads me to believe that not only is Kerry not behind in the polls right now, he may actually be slightly ahead.

-snip-

With leaners removed, here are the mean standings from these six polls according to Party ID:
Bush Kerry
Dem 11.7 88.3
Rep 93.0 7.0
Other 48.6 51.4

The mean number of undecideds in these six polls is 4.7. Now, here are how these Party ID standings and this number of undecideds would translate into current national standings according to four different levels of voter turnout:

Bush Kerry
2000 46.6 46.7
1996 46.0 47.3
1992 48.2 46.1
92-00 46.9 46.7

These numbers don't look all that bad for a challenger. In fact, with numbers like these, Kerry would have to be considered the favorite. Considering flagging turnout among independent / not affiliated voters, it is hard to imagine that the turnout will look more like 1992 than 2000 or 1996, when partisans ruled the day at the ballot box.

-snip-

more in link

[lancdem]

1. I also like that Kerry is leading in four of the polls

among nonaffiliated voters, and one is a tie. The only one with Bush ahead is CBS.

[sonicx]

2. The CBS internals are weird...

it also says 20% of democrats are voting for *

:eyes:

Itm guessing * will get about 12%. the zell miller types who forgot to switch parties years ago.

[featherman]

3. Yeah I ran similar numbers that last night for myself

using an arbitrary 100 million voter sample (will be larger) and the 2000 vote distribution of 39-35-26(DEM-GOP-IND). Frankly I don't see how Kerry loses the popular vote in the end as DEMS come home (as always) and he maintains ANY kind of margin among INDs. Factor in the motivation factor of the anti-Bush DEMS and INDS, and I doubt the GOP can keep their 35%. Patience, I guess, is the watch word but this week's display of pack journalism was appalling: "Kerry's losing", "campaign is disarray" "Is it too late for Kerry"...with NO ONE (not a single "journalist" or infotainer type) saying "Hey wait a minute, Kerry's actually doing pretty good here considering..Electoral College, poll internals, Bush lead shrinking", blah, blah)
Quite scary and disgusting. I'm no idiot about this stuff and I am not a pollyanna... I call 'em as I see 'em. Kerry is doing pretty good here at the beginning of the final stage of the campaign, considering August factors. It is Bush who is in trouble.

[sonicx]

4. Dems will be pumped for the election and...

I wouldn't be surprised if we out voted repubs by 5%.

Repubs really have no reason to be excited. He hasn't done anything for them socially (gay marriage, abortion). Iraq is a mess. The 'tax cuts' haven't done shit. gov spending and deficits are out of control.

If i were a repub, i'd probably vote third party or stay home. ;)