Bush Leads Kerry 52% to 44% in Wisconsin, Gallup Poll Finds

[quaoar]

I just find this real hard to believe.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aE.VxTOeh5fQ&refer=top_world_news

Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger John Kerry by 8 percentage points among likely voters in Wisconsin, according to a Gallup poll conducted for Cable News Network and USA Today.

Bush received the support of 52 percent to 44 percent for Kerry among 631 people who said they plan to vote in the Nov. 2 election. Last month, Bush had 48 percent to 45 percent for Kerry, within that Gallup poll's margin of error.

The new poll, conducted Sept. 9-12, has a margin of error of 5 percentage points. Independent Ralph Nader received the support of 1 percent. The earlier survey was taken Aug. 23-26, before the Republican National Convention in New York.

[FatSlob]

1. Weird. What are Wisconsin's normal voting tendencies? eom

[Freddie Stubbs]

12. Gore won Wisconsin by a very slim margin in 2000

The margin of victroy was less than 6,000 votes.

[Puglover]

2. when I see shit like this

I honestly think I have somehow gone to an alternate universe. I simply don't buy it.

[Dufaeth]

3. 631

Yeah, that's really a good representative amount of people to extrapolate from. Most of these polls are just stupid.

[ET Awful]

4. Notice the MOE on this poll as compared to the last.

When you take the MOE into account, that's only a 3 point lead, not exactly life-threatening.

Th real question is why the pervious pol lhad a 3% MOE and this one has a 5% MOE.

[quaoar]

8. Actually, with a 5% MOE

Kerry could be at 49 and Bush at 47.

They start with a much larger sample, but when they cull it down to whom they consider "likely voters," you end up with 631, which is just absurd.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

10. 631

isn't absurd, if it's chosen well. You can get a very good statistical sample of a population the size of the WI electorate with that sample size.

But the devil is in the selection, and I don't think the selection methodologies are all that bright if we keep seeing these wild swings.

[quaoar]

14. It is absurd

If you end up with a 5% MOE. Why even bother taking a poll that can swing 10 points?

[devinsgram]

5. Like I'm going to believe a Gallup Poll

[Mizmoon]

6. Polls, in our favor or against, are useless now

This election will be decided in the last week, perhaps
even in the last few days. Not even the debates matter
much, unless someone screws up badly. Nope, some last
minute event will decide this and no one knows what that
incident will be.

[Iceburg]

7. Is this the same firm that had Gore 39% ..Bush 52% OCT 27 2002

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/

CNN/Time poll: Bush holds edge
From Keating Holland/CNN

October 27, 2000
....

Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore.
------------------------------------------

ROTFL

[Jack Rabbit]

9. The Jack Rabbit rule of thumb for the Gallup poll

Subtract three to five percent from Bush's figure; add three to five percent to Kerry's.

It's a stastical dead heat at about 48% each.

[John_H]

11. Fromm the 2000 article

The poll...is in essential agreement with a CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll also released Friday. That poll gives Bush a 52 percent-39 percent edge over Gore. More important, both polls show the same snapshot of the current state of the presidential campaign: a solid advantage for Bush.

CNN tries to make bush inevitable and he lost.

[Jacobin]

13. Rural Wisconsin is problematic

In the 1970's David Duke (the klansman from Louisiana) used to raise a lot of money going to Wisconsin to have his hate speech fund raisers.

I hope the cheese heads can be turned around.