Federal Review Composite (9-14-04): Bush 284, Kerry 254

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

BUSH RETAKES ELECTORAL LEAD
Bush 51.1% – 289 EV | Kerry 46.5% – 249 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 247| Kerry 207| Toss 84
September 7, 2004

On August 17, the date of John Kerry’s largest lead in the Composite Poll’s Electoral Analysis, Kerry led in states worth 321 electoral votes and Bush led in states worth 217. There were only four states where the leader’s margin was less than 2%, and all were states that Bush one in 2000. That map was the worst electorally for the president, and some of us were feeling a bit negative about his prospects for reelection.

This week, Bush leads 289 to 249 and maintains the biggest lead yet for any candidate since we began the Composite Poll meta analysis of weekly polls on March 8. Bush leads by 4.6%. And the electoral map looks worse for John Kerry than it did for George Bush on August 17. There are currently 7 states where the analyzed margin is less than 2%, and five were won by Al Gore in 2000.

Prior to today's results, since we began tracking the race on March 8, Bush’s largest leads had been 50.1 to 47.6 on June 29 and 387 to 151 on March 16. Kerry’s largest leads have been 50.5 to 46.9 on August 10 and 321 to 217 on August 17.

[delhurgo]

1. Why would somebody make a map like this and make the Red states

Kerry/Dem and the Blue states Bush/Rep - its accepted by anybody that knows anything about politics that Blue is democrat and Red is republican. It seems like a pretty good poll, but they don't know that?

It looks to me like this is going to all come down to Florida again. It's deja vu all over again. Thats if Kerry wins Pennsylvania as well.

[Tim_in_HK]

3. Actually, that's not true

The incumbent (or incumbent's party) has historically been represented by blue, the challenger red.

2000:
Gore, blue; Bush, red

2004:
Bush, blue; Kerry, red

It's just that blue states = Dem & red states = Repub got entrenched in our thinking b/c of 2000.

[snowFLAKE]

4. Actually, Anybody that knows anything about politics

Knows that Blue is for The Incumbent and Red is for The Challenger.

It always worked that way until The Ignoramuses (Ignorami?) took over The Media in the 90's

[Dawgs]

2. Don't go by this poll..

This site is run by a Republican. I like http://www.race2004.net.

[phillybri]

5. Kick for the afternooners...

:kick:

[Zynx]

6. That's the worst we will see? That ain't bad.