Latest poll JK ahead in battleground states 51-39%; independents 48-38%!

[flpoljunkie]

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=9/13

A new IBD/TIPP poll put President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.

<>The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points — 51%-39% — in battleground states.

Kerry also dominates among urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs. 40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).

Among likely voters who are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors favor Kerry by 15 points.

[seabeyond]

1. so tell me about this poll. is it not popular

accurate well known. is it hidden in internet or something that news people cant find cause they dont research

i mean every channel goes on and on and on about bush distancing lead, ect. as we all know. even me the non believer in polls and especially this last month, i am starting to say, well maybe he is ahead, though doesnt make intellectual sense and doesnt feel like it

[Teaser]

3. It's a fine poll.

The Christian Science Monitor is a respected newspaper. This is poll is an established poll.

[seabeyond]

4. you know what teaser, i remember from 2000

and it was right there. and always heard good things about it.

wow..........just sittin in amazement thse repected polls out and ignored

[Xipe Totec]

5. Agree. Check out Polling Report

IBD/CSM poll is the first shown on the top right graphs "Trial Heats".

http://www.pollingreport.com/

[mom cat]

2. Thank you for lowering my blood pressure!

:kick: dimson's :bounce:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Proof of the psy-ops war they are waging with all their spin

Too bad for us they control the lion's share of the media.

[lancdem]

7. The only sobering news is Kerry polling 83 percent of Dems

while Bush gets 94 percent of Repukes. I'd like to see Kerry strengthen his base so he gets around 90 percent of Dems, whivh is where he was before. I think that will happen.

[PATRICK]

8. Kerry plays along with the "underdog" theme

while he again ramps up the numbers. Supposedly, now that they have declared Bush a "frontrunner" this time they will not ignore Kerry's rise and acknowledge his momentum, or lead, like last time.

But he is wrong. Silence will descend like a Cheney task force meeting when Kerry takes an inevitable and surging lead. It will be all about the evenness, the hardened blocks of Bush and Kerry backers, the small amorphous swing voters, the constantly shifting battleground states, Bush's visits and blather taken for real campaign substance instead of the meaningless photo-ops and gaffe guzzlers that they are.

I can see why Kerry favors the local press. I suggested long ago that was the main strategy. Toadying up to toadies for the GOP will emasculate your campaign.

The only thing that worries me about the simpleminded Bush gambits is that they are allowed to play out, as if you are supposed to allow a rabbit punch before a small jab riposte, that they get great press or misdirected slant, that gaffes or telegraphed horrors about terror attacks and pop goes the Osama make not a bit of difference in the media's rotten judgment. The Florida fraud runs apace, spare me the shock and indignation. The e-voting fraud(in concept and in detail) is
hampered a bit but larger than ever before. The TV campaign would make Milton's Satan a winner over God any day. "Better to rule on TV than to serve the nation."

[ItsMyParty]

9. There is this 'stat' that is used all the time and I can't figure it out

This poll, like a number of them we have posted here, have this figure for the "Battleground States". This one has Kerry leading 51 to 39. Well, since we don't have a 51st state of the Union called "the State of Battleground", I just don't get the figure. Do they add up 4% in one state and 1% in another, etc. Or is the 51-39 the average of each state. What does this figure mean to you and how do you think it is compiled??? I mean, it's kind of hard to think that in a place like OH or MO or FL that Kerry has a 12 point lead.

[flpoljunkie]

10. Numbers derived from the people they polled in the battleground states

for this national poll.

[ItsMyParty]

13. flp--yes, I know that ,but there are like 12 battleground states, so

how can they come up with one number that represents 12 different states?? That would mean (like in this poll) that Kerry was ahead by 11-12 points in each and every one of the battleground states and we know that just isn't happening. I'd like to know how they take all the responses from all those states and combine it into one number.

[maine_raptor]

11. This poll uses the Likelist of Likely Voters

<snip>

IBD/TIPP defines likely voters as adult Americans who say they are very likely to vote in November, have a high level of interest in the presidential election and have voted in every or nearly every presidential election.

<end snip>

[lancdem]

12. So that doesn't include first-time voters going for Kerry

[Spangle]

14. Which means

That Kerry is standing great amoung those who have voted in the past. As all ready been noted, a whole group of new voters are registering and are highly leaning towards Kerry. Those numbers are not included in this type of poll because they are not a "proven voter." People say they will vote, then don't. Proven voters will vote if they say they will.

[cthrumatrix]

15. kick

[faithnotgreed]

16. hmm. ill take it!

[flpoljunkie]

17. Inside Politics's Judy Woodruff mentioned this poll ever so briefly...

So quickly in fact, it was hard to digest it, even if you were familiar with the poll's results.