"Bush led Gore by 10 points in October 2000"

[Jack_Dawson]

"...According to the Gallup poll of likely voters last time around, Bush was up by more than 10 points in mid-October, while Al Gore was up by a similar margin in mid-September. That 20-point swing in the last two months of the 2000 election shows just how wildly the mood can change among voters—even when the nation is supposed to be divided equally down the middle."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6002341/site/newsweek/

[arbusto_baboso]

1. OR, it just shows how worthless and unreliable polls are....

Which is far more likely, in my opinion.

[beyurslf]

2. Exactly....

[liontamer]

7. Well said

[ISUGRADIA]

18. Polls are only a snapshot in time

The final polls nearest to election day were rather close to the mark including Gallup which had the race Gore 46, Bush 48 in its last poll:

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

Public opinion does ebb and flow based on events during a campaign. The Bush DUI story broke the Friday before the election.

[Rockholm]

3. Um, October 2001? * was already in the WH.

Post should read 2000

[Jack_Dawson]

6. Done. Can't get 2001 off the brain.

:shrug:

[A_Possum]

4. As Ray Texeira says, Likely Voters is ONLY meant to be used...

In the day or so before the election itself. Otherwise it's just junk. Does not chart accurately who is likely on election day, only charts who is likely when poll is taken.

[Iceburg]

5. According to Gallup Bush Led Gore 52% to 39% OCT 27

see http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/cnntime.poll/index.html

It's unbelievable that this firm is still in business, and more stunning that people still quote them. ONLY IN AMERICA.

[liontamer]

9. Further proof that polls are merely propoganda

[Proud2BAmurkin]

14. Excellent find.

.

[lancdem]

8. True

but Bush wasn't an incumbent in 2000, which gives him advantages he didn't have then.

[Czolgosz]

19. I forgot about the advantages incumbents have because

they can run on the long list of their many successful achievements, all the jobs they have created, the peace they've brought to troubled parts of the world, the work they've done to improve America's standing in global community. I'm waiting for the incumbent to use these strengths to his benefit.

[sonicx]

10. anytime a new gallup poll comes out

point to this.

it's shocking that anyone would cite them...

[cthrumatrix]

11. polls are tools... we know better

[Jack_Dawson]

17. True date

Just look at the title.

[moondust]

12. Thank you.

Gallup needs to be reminded that the public has not forgotten what miserable failures they sometimes are.

A question that remains, in this case for Gallup but in other cases for other pollsters, is this:

Was your poll so far off because you were fudging the numbers in an effort to steer public perception of the race in a certain direction to a certain conclusion of your own choosing or was it because of something else?

[mistertrickster]

13. Polls do a wonderful job of counting the people who answer their

questions.

Where they fall down is extrapolating the sample group to the entire population, for no one knows who is going to actually go out and vote and who is not.

[StayOutTheBushes]

15. Kerry is the type of candidate with a lot of charisma. He hasn't

been before the public lately because of lack of funds. When he debates bush and people see that he has a plan these polls will change greatly. He is a good stump speaker and unlike bush, he shows great intelligence with a wonderful vocabulary.

[Jack_Dawson]

16. Did Bush really wimp out of a debate?

Shameful.

[Mick Knox]

20. Lets hope we have a better result then.

[rumguy]

21. Yep - the conventional wisdom and all the polls showed Bush would

win the popular vote - we all know how that turned out.