Rasmussen Update

[louis c]

Nationally, the three day tracking numbers look better for Kerry. You can obtain the numbers on Rasmussen's free home page. However, on his paid Premium site, he breaks it down to the tenth of a point. His home site poll will be Bush 47%-46%. Actually that number is 47.1%-46.5%, so, in reality, Kerry is behind by just .6%. Because of rounding of rounding, it appears as a 1% Bush lead, instead of a tie. In other words, Kerry may be at 46.44%, so for the Premium site the 46.44% becomes 46.5%, but for the home page,46.44% is rounded to the zero, or 46%. I know I'm splitting hairs, but this is so you won't think there is an inherent bias against us.

Actually, September 12th's numbers of Bush 48.3% to Kerry 45.2%, which was a large Bush bounce on that day, will fall off for tomorrow's three day tracking data. Therefore, I anticipate a tie, or a small Kerry lead, in tomorrow's numbers. Let's see if I'm correct.

Free Home Page Data

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Paid Premium Info for Tuesday, September 14, 2004. Seven day rolling average.

Florida, Bush 49%-47%; Michigan, Kerry 51%-45%; North Carolina, Bush 53%-43%; Ohio Bush, 49%-47%; Pennsylvania, Bush 49%-48%.

Weekly update for Virginia, Bush 50%-45%; Wisconsin, Bush 47%-45%.

[WI_DEM]

1. I'm glad the Michigan numbers are still solid

national numbers are ok too. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida will fluctuate but are still within the moe. Virigina is actually better than I expected given Bush's "surge" I thought he would be ahead alot more there.

[NoBorders]

2. Ohio still in play

that's good as well...