Predict Kerry's Electoral Vote.

[TruthIsAll]

Poll question: Predict Kerry's Electoral Vote.

[mhr]

1. It Will Be A Squeaker Regardless Of The Polls And BBV

Really too close to call!

[Spiffarino]

2. Don't think it'll be a rout

...but it'll be decisive.

[delhurgo]

3. New Survey USA Poll shows Bush up by 6 in Florida.

Uh oh.

[are_we_united_yet]

5. yawn

[featherman]

4. This is my call as of today but I reserve my right to amend

Hard to see through the haze of Bush's early Sept bump nationally filtering through and affecting some "small sample" state polls but here goes. Expect this all to winnow out over next couple of weeks and return to our regular geographical and political stasis:

To whit,
Kerry wins Gore states plus NH (264). Adds NV, OH, FL for 316 total.

(That's my story and I'm stickin' to it)

[featherman]

7. Current conventional wisdom, however,

has Bush winning Gore states PA, WI, NM and also winning NV, FL, OH
for a Bush 307-231 win

http://slate.msn.com/id/2106527/?GT1=5100

Electoral-vote.com is similar at
291-238 Bush wins Gore states PA, WI. Kerry wins Bush state CO. FL, OH to Bush (with NV and ME tied)
This needs to shift just a little (PA, WI, ME back to Kerry) (CO back to Bush) (FL, OH, NV back to even) to get back to my formula.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


(I post this without comment although several occur to me)

[jsw_81]

6. 280-290

But that's assuming that Kerry turns this thing around. If the election were held today, however, he would probably lose with about 200 electoral votes.