Sen Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) career path will be VP in 2012, Potus 45 in 2016. She

[CK_John]

is the most natural vote getter since Tip O'Neill.

Her biggest problem will be the transition from pothole district politics to statewide tribal politics.

Also her seat will probably go Repub for 1 1/2 terms and then get broken up after the census.

I guess I'll have to wait until the 2010 rerun to confirm my opinion.

[avaistheone1]

1. Maybe not.

She is a conservative Democrat. People are getting fed up with republican lite.

[TheWraith]

3. No, she's not even close to being a conservative Democrat.

People are repeating things that are absolutely false. Name me a conservative Democrat who's in favor of gay marriage, Medicare for all, more regulation, and closing corporate tax loopholes to pay for middle class tax breaks.

[Still Sensible]

38. From what I've seen so far

she seems very progressive. Certainly, unwavering support of the NRA is a negative, but that's one issue.

[Ian David]

2. My money is still on Alan Keyes' daughter to be the Democratic Nominee in 2016. n/t

[avaistheone1]

32. If Alan Keyes' daughter spouts the same rhetoric as her father, I really hope she does not run,

[Ian David]

33. Nope. She's not like him at all. In fact, she's a lesbian. n/t

[Sebastian Doyle]

34. Alan Keyes daughter is an out Lesbian and was basically disowned by her asshole father.

I don't know if she's actually a Democrat though. She could be a Log Cabin Repuke. :shrug:

[Lucinda]

4. I watched the presser today and did a bit of reading after the fact.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if you are correct. She seems very smart, is incredibly passionate about politics, and seems to be a quick study. She'll be interesting to watch!

[ErinBerin84]

5. you make the oddest predictions.

[PresidentObama]

6. I'll take SoS Clinton in 2016, thank you.

Until then I'm going to enjoy President Obama :)

[Beacool]

22. Hear, hear!!!

:woohoo:

[ronnykmarshall]

31. I'll second that.

[Cash_thatswhatiwant]

48. this!

[Hawkowl]

56. 68 years old?

I prefer my presidents to be 55 years old or less.

[Doctor_Horrible]

7. No Biden in 2012?

[pot luck]

8. Has Biden signaled that he's not going to run with Obama in 2012? nt

[Merlot]

17. In 8 years, Biden will be 74

He probably had to much dignity to subject the country to another mcain/vanity run.

[Doctor_Horrible]

19. But he could still be VP in four....

[ShortnFiery]

9. Dream on.

She's not near as tough as HRC. Not with all that fawning and feminine posturing ... and NOT with that "little girl" warbling pitch of her voice. :eyes:

[TimesSquareCowboy]

15. I thought we didn't try to negatively characterize female voice patterns?

Or is it now okay to refer to Hillary's "cackle"?

[ShortnFiery]

16. She can modify that voice. She likes fawning submission like ole Mika.

I'd bet money that Mika will be gushing over her appointment tomorrow.

Those kind of gals are not the kind of "sisters" who I identify with ... she needs to GET REAL - modulate the little girl inflections.

[bigwillq]

10. What happened to Biden?

:shrug:

[ShortnFiery]

11. More Schumer/Clinton/DLC fantasies coming to the forefront of our discussions.

:puke:

[SidneyCarton]

12. Jumping the gun much?

Let's just try and get Pres. Obama's agenda passed, and get him re-elected in 2012 if he proves competent enough to merit it (I have no doubt he will, but reelection should never be considered a given.) Ms. Gillibrand will no doubt look after herself.

[ClarkUSA]

13. You're as good with those predictions as Dick Morris.

:rofl:

[Metric System]

14. But I thought Hillary is supposed to be the nominee in 2016? Or was it Caroline Kennedy? I dunno, I

keep hearing different names. I guess that's why it's best not to predict the future, especially 8 years from now. It's kind of pointless.

[xchrom]

18. ...

:crazy:

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. ROFL

Luckily, we've seen your political predictive powers at work before! Needless to say, I think we're as safe from a President Gillibrand as we turned out to be from your last round of nonsenses.

[Me.]

21. Enjoy This While You Can

She won't even make it past 2010. She has the Schumer kiss of death on her. Seems he pushed hard for her, just as he did for Chertoff and Mukasey. She won't play downstate and already candidates are licking their chops. And why D'Amato was standing behind her today is a mystery but he didn't do her any favors either.

[Beacool]

27. No mystery:

Those upstate roots are deep. It turns out that Gillibrand has an interesting political pedigree of her own. Her father is Doug Rutnik, a well-known Republican lobbyist in Albany. (That probably explains the presence of former GOP Senator Alfonse D'Amato over her shoulder at the announcement news conference.)

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2009/01/23/kirstin-gillibrand/

[Me.]

28. Yes It Explains It

And that with her father won't help her either. Gives her a Trojan Horse shadow.

[Beacool]

40. I don't know.

I never heard of the woman before today, so it's too soon to judge her. I'll wait and see how she votes once she's in the senate.

:shrug:

[Me.]

42. I Ended Up Phone Banking For Her

Through Move-On. She was running against a creepy Con. However, as it turned out several candidates Move-On supported then turned out not to be progressive and pretty opportunistic.

[Beacool]

43. Move-On can take a hike.

Remember the senate vote over the Move-On ad? Hillary stuck her neck out while Obama didn't vote on it. She got pilloried by the likes of Giuliani who took a full page ad on the NYT blasting her for her support of Move-On. What did she get for all her troubles? Oh yeah, Move-On endorsed the guy who didn't even bother to vote. So, I'm saving lots of money since the primaries. There are several organizations that won't get a dime from me ever again, including and specially the DNC.

:shrug:

[FLAprogressive]

23. haha ok --- in a DLC wet dream

[Beacool]

24. Hmmm, no, don't like.

I have another blonde in mind for 2016.

;)

[mtnsnake]

25. Why am I the first one to recommend this fine thread?

:shrug:

[Mass]

51. Because some of us do not see why Biden should be taken out of the ticket in 2012?

[rocktivity]

26. It's not too soon to start thinking about it--you can be the Rethugs are.

Hell, I put my 2008 ticket together as soon as I sobered up from celebrating the '06 elections: Clark/Obama was my dream ticket--I figured that no one would be able to hold Obama's race against him if he spends the previous four to eight years looking over a president's shoulder!

:headbang:
rocknation

[liberalpragmatist]

29. I mostly agree

I don't think Biden's going anywhere in 2012, but if Gillibrand wins reelection in 2010 and 2012, she'll probably position herself for a presidential run in 2016.

I doubt Hillary will run, being 69 years old and having been in the public eye for well over 20 years by that point (at the presidential level, there does seem to be a bit of an expiration date - usually between 15-20 years after their first major emergence in the public eye). She *could* run, but I think it's unlikely.

And though I'd expect Biden to remain on the ticket, he'll likely step down in 2016.

There'll be a LOT of pressure to name a woman to the ticket in 2016. I'd watch Gillibrand and also IL Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who's likely to be Illinois Governor in 2010.

About Gillibrand: she does have a relatively right-wing record, esp. on guns, fiscal issues and immigration for a Democrat. But she also represents a right-leaning district, and she's likely to move a fair deal left now that she represents NY state as a whole. I doubt she'll be a Barbara Boxer or Bernie Sanders type, for better or worse. But she'll probably amass a voting record extremely similar to Hillary's (whether you like that or not).

She'll probably face a primary challenge from Carolyn McCarthy. She'll probably beat her. I would *not* dismiss this woman. She's an extremely talented politician. I suspect we'll be hearing her name for awhile.

[Thothmes]

52. IMO that SOS Clinton will run against President Obama

2012. Any success of Diplomacy with be shared with him. Being SOS will keep her name in the public eye. Not being in Congress will make her pretty much immune to any criticisms for less than successful legislation. She will be 65.

[ronnykmarshall]

30. and I'll start going to Hooters to look at tits.

Had to use it again ..

[Number23]

35. And you reached this conclusion.... how exactly?

No one ever heard of her before yesterday and now you've got her VP in 3 years. Not saying it's not possible, but curious how you came to this conclusion.

[CK_John]

36. In this part of NY she is well known. n/t

[IndianaGreen]

41. New York doesn't sell outside New York

Hillary was the only exception to that rule since FDR ran, but then, Hillary was a native Chicagoan.

[Raineyb]

54. The woman doesn't even sell well inside of NY

At least not the area of NY where I'm from.

:shrug:

She might not even be a Senator after the 2010 elections.

Regards

[AllentownJake]

37. Something happened to Joe Biden?

[CK_John]

39. No, just time to make a change after 4 brutal yrs, IMO. Also, ever think it could be a

Biden/Gillibrand ticket?

[AllentownJake]

45. Those thoughts should not be spoken out loud

[Occam Bandage]

44. Criminy. Every single new politician is the next President. nt

[JVS]

46. I don't think so

[jzodda]

47. "She is the most natural vote getter since Tip O'Neill"

Huh? What? Where the hell did you pull that one out of? She's been in congress for 2 years. Yep 2 freaking years and now she's as amazing as Tip O'Neill? I'm from NY and never even heard of her before yesterday and I'm pretty well informed overall about politics, mostly national though not local. She certainly hasn't made much of a national name for herself and I have not read ONE nice thing said about her yet from the rest of the delegation, unless you think outsize ambition is a nice thing.

Comparing her to Tip O'Neill.....Poor Tip to be in such poor company.

[MadBadger]

49. You've been wrong many times before and will be again

ANd whats with this natural vote getter bullshit?

[CK_John]

50. Of course, here is another, former Gov George Elmer Pataki will try to unseat her in 2010. n/t

[EstimatedProphet]

53. Great prediction, Criswell.

[Political Heretic]

55. For which party? Cause she sure as hell doesn't belong in the Democratic one.