Gallup Polls

[last_texas_dem]

Poll question: Gallup Polls

So I was reading the thread in here that cited a Gallup poll from late October of 2000 that had * leading Gore by 13 pts. and it got me to thinking about just how long this polling organization has seemed to show a pro-Republican bias in their results, and I figured just for the hell of it I'd post a poll and see what DUers think about Gallup. So here goes...

Why do Gallup polls generally favor Republicans significantly more than other polls?

[last_texas_dem]

1. FWIW I think it's intentional

Gallup is very well-known and (at least I assume) generally well-respected, having been around for quite a while. When I was young they were the only polling organization I would have been able to name off the top of my head. I'd figure they would know how to adjust their polling techniques, noticing that their polls consistently compared differently, and generally with a distinct Republican-leaning bias, to other polls' results. That they don't seem to have changed their techniques causes me to suspect an intentional Republican bias.

[goodwalt]

2. Concerned- but don't care about OUR poll

I have been majorly concerned about Repubs playing with the polls for about a month now- but can't see the use of polling DU-ers about it. If you have the necessary research skills (I don't) to find out how Gallup has fared against actual results- those are some numbers I would like to look at.

[last_texas_dem]

3. Yeah

Honestly, I haven't done a lot of research on the subject. My view is based mainly on that I think Gallup had the least reliable result on Election Day 2000 (pro-* bias), and their polls have consistently given him higher approval ratings and larger leads over Kerry (or closer distances between him and Kerry when he was behind) in polls of battleground states (the 14-pt. lead over Kerry in MO being the most ridiculous...).

And yeah, I figure making the poll doesn't serve much purpose; I'm just frustrated...

[LoZoccolo]

4. Oh fucking A.

Gallup does have a problem - big problem that keeps getting bigger - in that they pick their sample randomly, which in the age of people who only have a cellular phone and people who have caller ID can get really fucked up. Other polling firms have tried to adjust for this, but it's an art, not a science. Of course, this is too easy to believe for some people so then we have to come up with all this stuff about an agenda and form all these bonds we have no empirical evidence of whatsoever.

[last_texas_dem]

5. Thanks for posting that information

I did not know that about Gallup's polling methods, and it's good to know. I just saw that their results seemed to give Republicans larger leads than others and wondered why.

[goodwalt]

7. Not Buying It

Sorry, but I'm not buying "incompetence" as an excuse for the best known, and therefore, one of the most respected polling outfits out there. Does that make sense to you? You do polling for a living- its ALL you do- and yet you make no attempt to tie your published responses with KNOWN demographics- like- the numbers of Dems,Repugs, and Independents in the given group that you are polling? Newsweek came forth with a ludicrous 14 point national bump- relying on numbers gleaned from more repugs than dems- and an equal number of Independants as Dems- when EVERYBODY knows those numbers don't reflect the electorate. THEN, every major media outlet started reciting THOSE numbers like they reflected the gospel of where the American public stood. If you go to electoral-vot.com (an outfit I DO believe in), and scroll through the daily numbers, you see WILDLY shifting numbers. I DO NOT BELIEVE that the "art" of polling is that subjective. If it is- then what the fuck is the point of polling at all? I smell a rat, my Dem brother, and I think it wears glasses,works out of the West Wing, and lives to rat-fuck the voting public.

[LoZoccolo]

10. Yes, every single employee of this long-running, best-known...

...polling organization all of a sudden decided to get all evil and help the BushCo PNAC corporatists for no benefit to themselves. They're all tight-lipped about it too!

It's probably the fact that they are so old that's keeping them from changing their methods. They'd have to make a bunch of decisions about methodology. Do they weigh it on voter registration? How do they determine that - a census of registration or another sample? All that's a conscious subjective decision that would actually leave them open to more charges of bias. Or might not even really reflect anything. I think they just don't want to be responsible for that quite yet.

Newsweek came forth with a ludicrous 14 point national bump- relying on numbers gleaned from more repugs than dems- and an equal number of Independants as Dems- when EVERYBODY knows those numbers don't reflect the electorate.

Which would mean that they're not engaged in a conspiracy, being transparent about facts that would point to their flawed method.

I DO NOT BELIEVE that the "art" of polling is that subjective. If it is- then what the fuck is the point of polling at all?

People are starting to wonder about that, seeing as it's so hard to chase. Used to be that random phone polling was not that subjective, now it's probably the worse method.

[Mr Blond]

13. LOL!

I do like the "They're all against us" conspiracy posts.

And you put it SO well...

"They're all so tight-lipped about it too".

[tritsofme]

6. Time and Newsweek has shown bush polling farther ahead than Gallup

the past few weeks.

Their most recent poll has Bush leading 52-45 among likely voters, and dead even among registered voters.

Time and Newsweek showed double digit advantages for bush.

Their final 2000 poll was well within the MoE, and they have a pretty solid 60 year history of consistency.

[jsw_81]

8. Pretty accurate

That's what scares me. And I think those of you who are screaming about Gallup's alleged pro-Republican "bias" need to cool it. This same poll (and others) had Kerry up by a nice margin a few months ago, and I don't recall any DUers complaining about it back then. Isn't it funny how the conspiracy/bias talk always seems to heat up when it's our guy who's falling behind?

Burying our heads in the sand and pretending that all the polls are rigged is NOT going to turn this thing around.

[Mr Blond]

12. Agreed.

I see to may "Fair Weather Poll Fans".

[lanparty]

9. All polls are having trouble now ...

Too many people are dumping their landlines and going cellular. This eschews the results.

[Mr Blond]

14. Now that's a reasonable point of view!

The rise of cell phones. I've seen a number of poll representatives lamenting the loss of landlines (And the use of caller ID).

Of course I have no idea if that harms or helps our results. I suspect, like most things (Non tin-foil comment here), it evens-out in the end.

[lanparty]

15. Polls are VERY biased towards people who don't have phones ...

And I think traditionally the polls have regarded these folks as non-likely voters so it was inconsequential.

There is a new class of twenty something that have Cable/DSL modems and no corresponding land line. We know that the younger you are the more likely you are to vote for Kerry. Folks with kids, are more likely to keep those landlines around because it is necessary to contact a RESIDENCE as opposed to a person.

How much does that schew polls??? I dunno. And maybe this is part of Zogby's unscientific "magic forumula" that turns out to be the most accurate.

We also have to consider the mentality of folks who sit through those long polls. Are they less or more likely to vote. On average I think they're more likely. But I also think that certain elections bring out "dormant" voters. And I think this is one of those elections.

We've all known for quite some time that voter turnout and Democratic victories are pretty closely related. The Republicans do anything they can to keep people off the voting rolls.

[Mr Blond]

11. I don't have a choice?

Personally, I trust Gallup (As far as anyone can trust any polling firm, I guess). They've been around for years and have a reputation as a fine company. So, I don't think they're necissarily "Biased". But I don't think other firms "Overpoll" Dems either (Or at least can't site any that do). So again, I don't really have a good choice in this poll.

Maybe this poll is biased??? Just kidding, of course. :)