Can't win without FL, PA, and WI.

[usregimechange]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

MI maybe the only good poll today.

[skooooo]

1. i'm not a happy camper today

[usregimechange]

2. I want to see the new round of Zogby polls before I totally freak nt

[deutsey]

3. Neither am I, but

the polls seem to fluctuate week by week. Last week Kerry was up in the EV and Bush was way down. Maybe Kerry can build a momentum with the debates.

[Lefta Dissenter]

4. we're WORKING on it...

and Kerry is holding a rally in Madison today. I don't have a CLUE how the numbers have gone down the tubes in WI, but, of course, I live in Dane County, which is ALWAYS blue. Maybe I need to get out more. :shrug:

OK, edited to add this, from a friend who went up to the Green Bay area to introduce General Wesley Clark:

September 14, 2004

FYI

After that the Q & A was very productive. She said that about 300 people attended. There were many students but no "anti" signs.

She also reported that NE Wisconsin (Appleton, Fox River, up to Green Bay) has lots of large Bush-Cheney signs but almost no Kerry signs.

[usregimechange]

7. Working hard here in MO too. We still have debates and

enough time. I get the sense that Bush is as high as he will go.

[MallRat]

9. THE NUMBERS AREN'T DOWN THE TUBES!

Don't believe the hype. Wisconsin is close, yes. But a six-point lead for Bush is just silly.

Keep up the fight. We will take America's Dairyland!

-MR

[WI_DEM]

5. Cheer up people

Rasmussen has Kerry down only two points in Wisconsin, which is actually an improvement over their last poll.

Gallup and Rasmussen has Kerry up by six in Michigan.

Rasmussen tracking poll has the race as too close to call in both Florida and Ohio with Kerry neck and neck.

[MallRat]

6. We can win without Florida.

...what's more, we should expect Jeb to steal Florida for his brother. Lower your expectations, and be pleasantly surprised if we win there.

WI and PA: they'll come around. The Bush convention bounce is still fading. PA was a Rasmussen (R) poll. WI was a Strategic Vision (R) poll.

What's more, politically, WI and MI should not be radically different (i.e., a 12 point difference is suspicious).

Don't panic.

-MR

[abrock]

8. GUYS, GUYS, GUYS.

1. Florida was done by Survey USA, which has fucked up time and time again during this election's polling process.

2. Wisconsin was done by the Republican polling group Strategic Vision. You can write it off. They are the same group that said Bush was up over 10 points in Florida awhile back, as I recall. As anyone could tell you, a swing of 10 points in this election is just about impossible, especially in a space of days.

3. Bush is not ahead in PA. Trust me. Rasmussen is just plain wrong.

4. The MOST important thing to keep in mind: We have the 18-24 vote, and they are not being represented. Every poll that Kerry is competitive in, we are going to win. Watch and see.

[deutsey]

11. I was just gong to post the same thing, after doing more research

I feel a little better now and am returning to my usual distance from polls.

I remember how Bush was supposedly ahead in the polls prior to 2000 and, if I recall, someone else got the popular vote (and the electoral too, despite what the Jebbie says).

[Teaser]

13. Forget it. These wimps just want to whine.

It's in their DNA.

[Lefta Dissenter]

16. Excuse me?

:shrug:

[Teaser]

32. Hey, I ain't said you're a wimp.

However, there is a growing wimp contingent here on DU. No doubt about it.

They can't handle politics. They are too much the little baby to deal with a bloody nose or a bad poll.

I'm sure you've seen their posts.

[LTR]

Many 18-24 year olds don't have home phones

They either live at home, at college, or use a cell phone as their main phone. Pollsters don't call cell phones.

I wonder what polling is like in the minority communities, particularly black.

[Meshuga]

Ouch

These battleground states are getting too red for my taste. I'm not freaking out because it's only September and I'm interested in seeing this map a couple of weeks prior the election.

Let's see what happens!

[still_one]

10. Any of those states not colored blue or red are still in play

In fact, most of those are well within the margin of error, but we are definitely treading dangerous ground, and do not have much time

[ugarte]

12. Self-fulfilling prophecy

Democrats believe polls showing them losing big-time
Democrats stay home
Democrats lose big-time, validating polls showing them losing big-time.


I've said it a thousand times. Turnout is the key. If we lose heart, we lose turnout and we lose.

Lesson: do not lose heart.

[snippy]

15. You are right. This is why both parties commission polls designed

to inflate their candidate's numbers from time to time. It is all about exciting your own base and demoralizing your opponent's base.

[Lefta Dissenter]

23. I don't know one Democrat

who is 'losing heart' and going to stay home. People I know are working as hard as they can to get out the vote and let people know what this election means to us.

Democrats may be getting pissed off, but you're selling us short if you think we're going to just go to bed and suck our thumbs.

By the way, I'm taking three kids to the Kerry rally today - two who were too young to vote in 2000 and one who voted for bush in 2000. I already took the bushvoter to an Edwards rally, and he's now totally sold on Kerry/Edwards. He has promised to get his previously non-voting friends to vote, even if he has to drive them to the polls himself and buy them a beer afterwards.

[dubyaD40web]

28. I disagree...

When us dems see us losing, it's all the more reason to get out and vote.

Example: I live in redneckville KS. They had a vote earlier about selling alcohol in our district on Sunday's. As the day went on, it was losing badly. People saw this and immediately went to the polls. The vote won by over 100 votes.

[Dangeresque]

14. Debates

Kerry needs to rock the debates at this point...

[newyawker99]

36. Hi Dangeresque!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[LTR]

17. There's a lot of good stuff in this map

First off, the Strategic Vision polls are B.S. They always skew ridiculously Repub.

Arkansas and Missouri are both in play. PA is much closer. Lots of 'margin of error' stuff too.

MN seems solidly Kerry, but I'm not familiar with the Market Solutions poll.

So far, it's Kerry 238, Bush 296, according to the site. If Kerry gets PA, WI and either NV or ME, the race is won. I can't see either ME or NV going red. Florida is a very big toss-up, and I see many minorities going to vote there (they get underpolled quite often). Big college communities with out-of-staters there, too.

WI has some interesting competitive congressional races, and Gwen Moore is working to get out the vote in the minority areas of Milwaukee. CO is the only state that is currently Kerry that could realistically go Bush.

Don't give up hope - this race is closer than you think.

[LTR]

21. And... the Nader factor

Nader seems to be only a factor in solidly red states and solidly blue states. He bareley registers in the swing states. This is also good.

[Cheswick2.0]

18. I do not believe that this poll is accurate

sorry but no way is Pa going for bush.

[Ravenseye]

19. Yeah PA will go Dem

just like CO will go Red.

Who knows though. These polls are all based on likely voters, registered voters etc.

From what I'm reading, there are going to be A LOT of new voters this year. Just read in The Nation about how Arizonans are making strides at registering Latino and Native American voters.

I just did my own prediction of the electoral college though, and it comes down to florida. From the way I set it up...either Kerry will win florida and win, or bush wins florida...and they're ina 269 to 269 tie. Then it goes to the house and they elect Bush.

Can you imagine?

[Dawgs]

20. Stop looking at electoral-vote.com

Go to http://race2004.net and click on the state you are concerned about. Ohio for instance looks bad until you look at the Rasmussen numbers on top and who is driving the numbers toward Bush.

[LTR]

22. there's no site there

Got a better link?

[Dawgs]

25. Yes...

Try http://www.race2004.net.

[LTR]

26. Works now

Before, I got a blank 'search engine' page selling African-American hair care products.

Weird.

[MoonRiver]

33. That is a wonderful site!

I bookmarked and will donate! Thanks for the link!! :kick:

[Anaxamander]

24. We'll win all these blue states except CO, plus

OH, ME, WI, PA, and (wait for it) FL. Story over. Salute President Kerry.

[Czolgosz]

27. If you think these numbers are bad, you should have seen

Kerry's polling numbers a year ago! Most of the country didn't even know who he was. And now your losing your grip because there is a poll that has Kerry 1 POINT down (well within the margin of error) in Pennsylvania? Please, have a stiff drink, take a cold shower, go on a long walk, or buy some shoes -- whatever it takes to calm you down, but do not fly off the handle! Gore was much farther behind at this stage in 2000 and he won, and that was before the majority of Americans knew what a shit Bush is.

[Romulus]

29. poll watching will make you crack up

My criticism of these "polls" is that they randomly sample from the same population set at different times. Since it's the same pool, the fluctuations should be expected since a different subset is polled each time. It's all guesstimation.

You also have to look at how the samples as being chosen.

"Likely voters" as a sample has been criticized here for having a huge selection bias.

[LisaL]

30. Kerry was way behind Dean in all the primary polls, wasn't he?

I mean, I don't think anybody was predicting he would win based on the polls. So, we should all take a clue before whining about the polls.

[ItsMyParty]

31. On the LB page of DU (maybe we have to come to some grips)

There's a post about a Quinnepack (sp?) poll that has Kerry losing a chunck of ground in NY (still leading but lost a chunk). A few days ago one of the polls had NJ closing down to just a couple points. I guess at some point we have to realize that every poll, every time, cannot always be "lies, not accurate, distortion, etc.". Yes, there are trends is some by tenths of points with Bush edging down and Kerry edging up. But I think it's reasonable to say that if Kerry has lost chunks in very pro-Dem states, then things cannot be coming up roses in states that we took last time by just a couple percentage points. On election night as polls close in the east, we damn well better be hearing Kerry called the winner in Maine, NJ and PA or you can turn off the sets and spare the pain. If those fold early then you are not going to get a massive Dem surge to save the day in OH, WI, MO, etc. And totally forgetabout Florida---if Christ was running against Bush he would lose because Christ doesn't have Brother Jeb there to make sure he's declared the winner.

[MoonRiver]

34. Why would Kerry be losing in NY? That makes ZERO sense.

Hence my skepticism of all polls right now. :crazy:

[Iceburg]

35. PA -- Kerry in a landslide ...

2000 FACT to remember

2000 Results: Bush 46.4, Gore 50.6, Nader 2.1 (Gore +4.2)

2004 FACTS

Forget the nationl news media, the real story is being told over and over again in the local news media

Centre Daily News (State College)
County voter registration heavy

http://www.centredaily.com/mld/dailytimes/9668814.htm

snip
Four years ago, Republicans captured 43 percent of that registration increase during that period and the Democrats got 29 percent. So far this year, Republicans can claim 29 percent of the registration increase and Democrats 44 percent.

...