9/15 Electoral Vote Predictor - Bush 296 Kerry 236

[baby_bear]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/index.html

I have been following this for a number of months, and it has completely reversed itself.

How can this be?

:shrug:

s_m

[geek tragedy]

1. Ohio and Florida are Bush friendly right now.

Florida looks like it's still in play--Ohio not so much.

The Swiftvets accomplished their goals there.

[WI_DEM]

4. Hardly

Rasmussen does tracking polls in Ohio and he has had it neck and neck between Bush and Kerry for several days now.

[lancdem]

13. The most recent Columbus Dispatch poll had the race tied at 46

in Ohio. Strategic Vision is a Repuke polling firm whose polls are very pro-Bush.

[geek tragedy]

21. Thanks for the tip.

I see red when I see Red, if you know what I mean.

God I can't wait for the debates.

[Worst Username Ever]

2. Strategic Vision n/t

[WI_DEM]

3. You begin by taking Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin

out of the Bush leaning or solid column and make them toss ups, which is what they actually are.

[michigandem2]

5. polling to persuade ...

I had a feelign as it got closer that they would poll and bush would always be up...hoping to persuade those who vote for a "winner" but there will be a lot more dems, recovering repukes, and newly registered voters who want that ass OUT...

[The_Casual_Observer]

6. This reflects a bush bounce that probably no longer exists

This site showed California as slightly for Kerry last week!

[Teaser]

7. Jesus Christ everyday people react to this

You people have no stomach for politics. Go home.

[meisje]

9. Isn't this the second day in a row you've posted this same reply?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

19. I'm not sure, but he should post it every single day someone

posts rubbish like this.

[mckara]

10. I Agree...

DON'T GIVE UP THE SHIP! We haven't even had the first debate yet.

[Julien Sorel]

12. Amen.

I don't understand how some of these people make it through the day without multiple nervous breakdowns.

In response to news:

"Oh, this poll is bad. We're doomed."

"Oh, the Republicans came out with a new talking point. Kerry has to dooooooooooo soooooommmmeeeeethinggggggggg!"



When bored:

"Why isn't Kerry fighting back?" The dynamics of this one are interesting: it's as if Kerry is some gangly nerd, and the Republicans are streetcorner bullies. I think there's quite a bit of projection going on from people who make this statement.


Another when bored:

"Where's Edwards?"


Notice that both the "Fighting back" and "Where's Edwards" comments are simple parroting of Republican talking points promulgated, in part, by the media, that "Democrats" have allowed to seep into what passes for their minds. Yet they claim to hate the media because it's biased and so on. Why isn't this a majority party? Look around on DU.

[Goldmund]

14. Who the hell are you? The DU bouncer?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

18. a-fucking-men

People who have no grasp of politics read the polls every day and think they're political scientists, then freak out when something that occurs every single Presidential election (the convention bounce) happens. The sky is NOT falling people! Get a fucking grip!

[11 Bravo]

22. Lighten up, Slick.

While I agree that certain posters overreact to however the winds appear to be blowing on a given day, we are all ostensibly on the same team here. There are more than a few high school and college DUers who may not have been to quite as many rodeos as you and I. Perhaps you might be able to find a better way to calm them down than telling them to fuck off.

[SaveElmer]

8. He only assigns toss-ups on an actual tie

Not on a tie within the margin of error. Many of these states he is giving Bush are within the margin of error and should really be considered toss-ups including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri, Arkansas, and Nevada. Conversely, the only state assigned to Kerry that is in this category is Colorado.

So, the electoral count, using a statistical tie as the criteria should be

Bush 243
Kerry 229
Toss-up 56

I hope my math is right here

In addition, his reliance on SUSA polls is somewhat dubious. I have seen a number of articles which rank these as the most unreliable of the polls out there, with Rasmussen not far behind.

[lancdem]

11. This fluctuates almost every day

Going into the RNC Bush was ahead. There are so many states where leads are so narrow, don't fret.

[gatorboy]

15. Nothing's in stone until the debates.

Before the 2000 debates, Gore was running on a good lead. Only after, when the press pounded Gore as stiff and Bush as likable, did Bush start to get the edge.
The Bush people know this and is probably one of the reasons they are shutting down a crucial debate night. Kerry needs to hit those debates HARD.

[faithnotgreed]

16. hearing kerry with great specifics and seeing bush avoid questions,

i dont have any worry about what polls say... the ones that legitimately have kerry down some, im sure they will turn around

the choice couldnt be clearer (as kerry says...). of that i am confident!

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. trends

now Kerry is startign to go up

Polls are a picture in time, only thing that matters is trends and the only poll that truly matetrs is election day

They are trying to keep you and yuor freinds home

[pmbryant]

20. This site uses a very weak methodology for assigning states

It only uses the most recent poll for each state, and then assigns the state to a candidate even if the difference is only 1%.

Due to statistical noise alone (not even mentioning sampling biases), the margin in polls should fluctuate by 5-7 points or more. That alone invalidates the day-to-day results of this website.

For example, the current page shows Minnesota as +9 for Kerry and neighboring Wisconsin as +6 for Bush. I find this 15-point difference unbelievable based on the similar voting history of these states. In truth, it is likely that both states are much closer, and it is almost impossible to tell who is ahead. (Though I suspect Kerry is ahead slightly in both.)

Peter