New state polls: NJ and Illinois

[PSU84]

New Jersey 9/15/2004
Bush 49%
Kerry 45%
Other/Undecided 7%
Sample Population 734 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 3.7%

ILLINOIS 9/15/2004
Kerry 49%
Bush 45%
Other/Undecided 7%
Sample Population 618 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%

www.surveyusa.com

Bush ahead in New Jersey? Kerry's lead in Illinois down to 4 points?
This is getting ugly.

[JPJones]

1. Dupe

[dumpster_baby]

2. holee scheist!

This is getting ugly. I just hope the Dems have the brass to open up a can of whoop ass. I surely do hope....

[July]

3. No Effing Way.

I live in New Jersey.

In the last local elections, Democrats made the town councils in a number of towns that had been all-Republican. Don't forget the state as a whole trends Democratic.

Something messed up here. Looks like what we anticipated months ago -- make it look close, then steal it.

[PSU84]

15. Two other recent New Jersey polls

showed Kerry leading by 3-4 points. It's not impossible that the lead has switched.

Sep 12 Strategic Vision (Rep.) Kerry 46 Bush 43 Other 2
Sep 7 Eagleton Rutgers Kerry 43 Bush 39 Other 5


Illinois and Jersey are both must-win states for Kerry, especially if both Ohio and Wisconsin go for Bush. (WTF is up in those states anyway???). Without Wisconsin, Kerry must win 2 of 3 in OH, PA, and FL. Or he doesn't win.

[Bluzmann57]

4. 734 voters? 618 voters?

Not really very many compared to the population of the two states mentioned. If you are all that worriede, get out and volunteer to help the Kerry campaign. They can find something for you to do.

[TruthIsAll]

10. State polls are always in the 600-700 range with a 4% MoE.

It's a bogus poll.

The problem is not the number. It's who they polled.

[tritsofme]

23. Agreed, SUSA has been putting out some really

wacky polls lately.

The strange part about the IL poll is that while it has bush within 4% of Kerry, it still has Obama leading by 40%.

[rb22982]

24. Keep in mind...

This poll does have a +-4 MOE so its possible Kerry is up by 10 and this not be an outlier. Most of the other recent SUSA polls look fairly accurate based on 2000 exit numbers to me (Ex: Pa Kerry +2/Mo Bush +2/Oh Bush +3). That said, the NJ and IL numbers look like they are off at least 6 in Bush direction at the moment.

[Zynx]

5. Bullshit.

[Kierkegaard]

7. Exactly...

This is a total unmitigated steaming pile of bullshit...

[Placebo]

6. Those Illinois #'s are BS!

It's not going to even be anywhere neeeeeeeeeeear that close. we're a solid blue state and we're going to f'n stay that way.

[baltodemvet]

8. Dubious n/t

[in_cog_ni_to]

9. Those are the #'s they had on my local CBS news.

I just cannot believe it.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. Bullshit! Survey USA is a right wing poll.

[Teaser]

13. No they're not.

Sometimes you just get a poll that's inaccurate.

Illinois might be right. Jersey is clearly wrong.

[WVhill]

14. I think Ilinois has to be wrong.

On the other hand, this is the second poll that's shown NJ moving closer to Bush.

[jefferson_dem]

12. That's it! I'm taking a break from polls...till tomorrow at least!

:puke:

[bringbackfdr]

16. Illinois for Bush?

Any poll that suggests Bush will carry Illinois is asinine on its face. Ignore.

[Edgewater_Joe]

17. Kerry By Double Digits In IL

Book it -- that poll is totally insane.

Kerry's going to take AT LEAST 65% of the vote in Cook County ALONE -- that'll give him five points EASILY.

And the IL Repunk Party is an embarassment that is not going to turn out for Alan Keyes.

I'd bet my condo on it.

[iwantmycountryback]

18. That's complete bullshit

Maybe Bush is getting closer in NJ but no fucking way he's winning. And there's not a chance in hell Illinois is that close. Considering how strongly they voted for Gore it's asinine to believe they will vote for Bush now.

[Xipe Totec]

19. My Wife HATES Dubya

But when the pollsters call and ask, she always yells

NONE OF YOUR DAMNED BUSINESS!

I guess she's counted as one of the undecideds :eyes:

[alcuno]

20. Illinois didn't vote for * last time and he's done NOTHING to endear

himself to Illinois voters. The Republican party is on life support in Illinois; and that comes from the head of the Illinois GOP.

[partygirl]

21. I don't know.

my college roommate is from Joillet (? spelling) a blue collar area of Illinois. None of her family has EVER voted for ANY Republican (her parents are both school teachers and her brother audits banks to make sure that they give enough loan $$$ to minorities.) They are very liberal people and I talked to her on the phone I was all like so are you excited about the election? And she was all like " I hate them both and I don't know what I am going to do" I kept asking her but she was totally that she hated both of them. A buddy sent her here to DU to learn more and get enthusiastic (that was how I found out about you guys), but she got banned cause she wasn't all stoked about Kerry so now she is saying that she hates ALL Democrats! What should I tell her?

[delete_bush]

26. You could, like, tell her to go

to the freeper website, where she would be, like, more welcomed and stuff, and could get really stoked on the issues.

There's some totally bitchin, really awesome dudes over there. They say WAY cool stuff, where in the course of just a few minutes she could learn a lot about gay rights....

They're deviant, degenerate filth. They have no rights to anything.

They're genetic aberrations, and their behavior is an abomination.

They should be thankful that they exist in a society that tolerates their presence.

A few hundred years ago they would have been stoned to death or burned at the stake.

They don't know how good they already have it. They ought to shut up and count their blessings.

Until the 1970's, Homosexuality was categorized as a mental illness by the Psychiatric community. It was the lobbying by the sodomites that got them to remove it. Just like the sodomites and pedophiles are now trying to get them to remove pedophelia from the categorized "mental illnesses" - the first step in their attempt to bring legitimacy to that, too.

I think the sodomites do belong in psychiatric wards instead of prisons. They're not criminals, they're deviants. There's a difference. They're mentally ill, in my opinion.

...and on Immigration Policy:

100 foot high concrete and steel wall from San Diego to the Gulf. Military snipers every 400 yards along the wall with orders to shoot to kill. Eight hundred yard "no man's land" on the southern side with anti-personnel mines, barbed wire, and infrared sensors.

There's your border solution.

There's much more of this filth, but I'm sure you get the point. Gee, I wonder what your friend said at DU that got her banned. You wouldn't happen to have her user name, would you? Maybe together we could review her posts and talk to the mods about re-instatement?

This is the true nature of the other side, as I'm sure you know. Before it's too late, let's save her from a life of hatred and bigotry.

[delete_bush]

27. still waiting....

[rb22982]

22. My analysis--

Well, SUSA used 34D/33I/30R in the NJ poll. 2000 exit polling was 40D/30R/30I. If you re-adjust those number you'll get Kerry by a couple, in line with 3 other polls showing this a close race (Kerry by 4,3, and 3). That said, this isn't very promising :( Gore won this state by 16 in 2000.

Illinois looks the same way (Ie the oversampled Rs by about 4-5 points, which means Kerry is probably up by 6-8 in Illinois at the moment.

Looks like Keyes is taking a good ole fashion Il. asswhopping though.

[EndElectoral]

25. I have more faith in NJ than to beleive those numbers...

[sr_pacifica]

28. I don't think the source is reliable

[AngryAmish]

29. IL numbers are wrong

I am told from a guy who knows that the state is solid. Relax and ignore.

[gasperc]

30. notice how the smaller the samples, the higher Bush polls

mydd should do a study of this . He's has some great posts on poll methodology and vote patterns. I've tended to like survey USA since they have shown some accuracy but these two polls seem to be off base.