New Democracy Corps Poll (more pleasant news)

[Teaser]

Democracy Corp Poll Released today
(poll released Sept. 9 in parentheses)

link

Bush 49 (50)
Kerry 48 (47)

So, based on 2 data points (a bad idea, I know) it looks like there is some closing between K and B's numbers.

One thing people need to keep in mind: state polls trail national polls. So the electoral picture will get worse while the national picture gets better.

[Doohickie]

1. state polls trail national polls

Really?

Why?

[Teaser]

2. I'm not totally sure, but I can hand wave...

State polls sample a subpopulation sampled by national polls. A small dynamic occurring in many subpopulations may be easier to pick up statistically then the same dynamic in just one subpopulation.

That's handwaving. It also may have something to do with how media percolates. Populous states get oversampled by polls generally and often have better media coverage. So they pick up the national zeitgeist first. Smaller states get the story later.

Also handwaving. Mostly it's just an empircal fact that pollsters have noticed over a long period of time. Still seems true. Look how everyone was crowing last week that we were still leading electorally. I knew that wouldn't last, because the national bounce hadn't percolated down to the local level yet. Now everyone is pissing and moaning because we're behind electorally, even as Bush's bounce seems to be slowly fading. But that too is logical. The states are only now just registering the convention Bounce.