Don't believe the mediawhores. It's Kerry: Two scenarios.

[TruthIsAll]

This is how we win.

A higher percentage of the white vote: high registration of
young democratic voters, single women, military/veterans,
unemployed, disillusioned log-cabin and straight repubs, F9/11
on video, Plame indictments,social security/medicare
recipients... 

A higher percentage of the growing, newly-enfranchised black
vote.
A higher percentage of the growing Hispanic vote.


Gore won 42% of the white vote								
2000	All	Gore	Gore%	Bush	Bush%	Buchanan	Nader	Nader%
White	81%	42%	34.02%	54%	43.74%	0%	3%	2.43%
Black	10%	90%	9.00%	9%	0.90%	0%	1%	0.10%
Hisp	7%	62%	4.34%	35%	2.45%	1%	2%	0.14%
Asian	1%	55%	0.55%	41%	0.41%	1%	3%	0.03%
Other	1%	57%	0.57%	39%	0.39%	0%	4%	0.04%
	100%		48.48%		47.89%			2.74%
								
					
Scenario I
Kerry wins 44% of the white vote, 91% of  blacks, 63% of
hispanics							
2004	All	Kerry	Kerry%	Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
White	78%	44%	34.32%	55%	42.90%	0%	1%	0.78%
Black	11%	91%	10.01%	8%	0.88%	0%	1%	0.11%
Hisp	8%	63%	5.04%	36%	2.88%	0%	1%	0.08%
Asian	2%	55%	1.10%	44%	0.88%	0%	1%	0.02%
Other	1%	57%	0.57%	42%	0.42%	0%	1%	0.01%
	100%		51.04%		47.96%			1.00%
								

Scenario II	
Kerry wins 46% of the white vote, 92% of blacks, 64% of
hispanics							
2004	All	Kerry	Kerry%	Bush	Bush%	Other	Nader	Nader%
White	78%	46%	35.88%	53%	41.34%	0%	1%	0.78%
Black	11%	92%	10.12%	7%	0.77%	0%	1%	0.11%
Hisp	8%	64%	5.12%	35%	2.80%	0%	1%	0.08%
Asian	2%	55%	1.10%	44%	0.88%	0%	1%	0.02%
Other	1%	57%	0.57%	42%	0.42%	0%	1%	0.01%
	100%		52.79%		46.21%			1.00%

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

1. The whole point of the media now

is, by and large, to discourage Democratic activitists. I don't believe a thing that is said, and have been known to play a game called "How many RW talking points are imbedded in this story?"

[Wapsie B]

3. That's right.

Spin the news like there's no tomorrow. Beat down and discourage the Dems any way you can. Keep those Dems away from the polls.

[TruthIsAll]

5. It's a massive fascist assault. They must not win.

tia

[Algorem]

18. That's the fact,Jack!

[SoCalDemocrat]

11. The media is against us

The media is definitely against us. CNN and FOX are hammering Kerry every hour on the hour. Other networks are picking up the mantra that Kerry is just so far behind, and use language like "if he can even catch up". They said NOTHING of the sort when Kerry was shown to be that far ahead of Bush, or further. No then it was "the polls are a statistical dead heat."

Well guess what, it's still too close to call. That's not going to stop the media from trying to discourage voter turnout.

[ever_green]

17. It makes me sick!

Oh well, we don't need the media to win (like Republicans do). Kerry knows we're out here :) And there's a lot more where we came from! They'll see in Nov.

[featherman]

2. Number 1 is about right, TIA

but even using Gore's % of each group, Kerry wins PV due to turnout and demographic changes. Especially important in Florida where the (non-Cuban) Hispanic population has grown so dramatically along the I-4 corridor.

[tedoll78]

9. I don't remember where I read it,

but of all people moving to Florida, about 50% were minorities. And I know that at least 2 million have moved there in the past 3.5 years.

[LiberalFighter]

24. How many of them are registered to vote?

How many of them regularly voted in their previous state?
How many of them vote Democratic?

[TruthIsAll]

4. kick for TRUTH

tia

[TruthIsAll]

6. Kick: It's not self-promotion, just a reminder.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

7. Comments?

tia

[foo_bar]

8. there's googols of ways for Kerry to win or lose

it seems like trying to predict the weather six weeks from now. It'll be cold, sure. Will it rain on Nov 2?

[LiberalFighter]

26. The most important way to make sure Kerry wins?

Make sure that our voters are not discouraged from voting because of what the fake media and polls is telling everyone.

Explaining to them that the media and polls are being manipulated.

[shockingelk]

20. These scenarios are interesting to think about

But is there not a distinct possibility that Kerry could win with something like 48.5% of the popular vote? I mean, FL with less than 1000 votes.

This cycle we have Badnarik and Peroutka and at least some pissed Republicans ... if you get 5% of the Republicans in FL, AR, MO and OH either sitting this one out or voting for the Libertarian or Constitution Party candidate, it would be hard for Kerry to lose.

[TruthIsAll]

22. I have no indication that these ex-Repubs are a factor.

I would expect to see them in the polls with Nader.

Maybe the pollsters don't want (us) to know.

[shockingelk]

28. That would still mean less votes for Jr

I'm thinking that the meme of "We're at war, we must show national unity and unite behind the president" is causing some to say they support the president and will vote for them. Their actual behavior on election day may be different.

[quaoar]

25. Badnarik and Peroutka are unknowns

They won't have much effect. However, if someone with name recognition and widespread RW credibility like Roy Moore had run, this election would be a Kerry cakewalk.

[shockingelk]

29. Things can shift rapidly

A bit of exposure in major media in the last week or two before the election may result is something we just can't anticipate now. Although we can think about the possibility.

After all, they're on a lot of ballots.

[oasis]

10. Kerry should be way ahead. I see signs of waning support for Bush

everywhere I travel.

[cthrumatrix]

12. you can't get that data with "old polling techniques & GOP biased" as well

[TruthIsAll]

13. Please give us an oasis of anecdotals...

tia

[DemBones DemBones]

14. Well, I'm in an area where I should be seeing Bush* stickers

but I'm not. Now, maybe people are hiding their true intentions, but why would they? Reagan and both Bushes took this state, though Clinton also won it. I'm not going to project that Kerry will win here but I think he'll do better than many expect. I hope Repubs are staying home on Nov. 2!

[Andromeda]

15. Kick!

:kick:

[TruthIsAll]

30. Plenty of anecdotals for Kerry...but the Bushmedia keeps

trying to convince us that Kerry's toast.

[DeepModem Mom]

16. kick

[sofa king]

19. I live next door to Bush Campaign Headquarters

In Rosslyn, VA.

You know what I've noticed is fashionable around here? Peeling Bush bumper stickers.

I don't think this is vandalism. I think those stickers have worn out after four years and they've not been replaced.

Pro-Bush lawn ornaments are swamped in a comparative sea of Kerry signs.

And here's something really interesting: the Texans have lost their hats.

I think they just want to go home, where they can go back to hating the government and dreaming about how it could be better if everyone were god-fearing, white, and bad at math.

[TruthIsAll]

21. sunday kick

tia

[quaoar]

23. Two points

1. I don't think you can assume that everyone (white) who voted for Gore will vote for Kerry. I know it seems hard to believe that a Gore voter might vote for Bush, but some people just go with whoever is with the party in charge. It's not a large group, but they are out there.

2. I think turnout will be higher across the board, but white voters will increase as a percentage of the total vote. Black and Hispanic turnout will be higher than 2000, but not as high as the increase in white turnout. This is actually good news, because I think a major chunk of the white increase will be young people and newly registered voters.

[TruthIsAll]

27. Look at it this way..

You
I don't think you can assume that everyone (white) who voted for Gore will vote for Kerry. I know it seems hard to believe that a Gore voter might vote for Bush, but some people just go with whoever is with the party in charge. It's not a large group, but they are out there.

Me
I don't. But not every white who voted for Bush will vote for him this time, either. And more Repubs will move to Kerry than vice-versa.

You
I think turnout will be higher across the board, but white voters will increase as a percentage of the total vote. Black and Hispanic turnout will be higher than 2000, but not as high as the increase in white turnout. This is actually good news, because I think a major chunk of the white increase will be young people and newly registered voters.

Me
And that's why Kerry will get a higher percentage of the white vote. Remember, we are talking relative increases. A 7 million rise in white votes is a 10% increase in that group. A 1 million rise in black votes is also 10% increase.