***NY-20 Election Discussion - THREAD TWO***

[mvd]

Continue the discussion here since the first is so long with old numbers. Murphy up by 65 votes with absentees yet to come, it appears. :bounce:

[Adelante]

1. It will take until 4/13 for final count

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13064/in-short

[Drunken Irishman]

4. By that time, no one will care.

Hopefully we can hang onto the seat, since every seat helps in the house, but as for news cycles goes, this is a blow to the Republicans.

[Adelante]

6. Yeah, it worked out well enough for us nt

[PBS Poll-435]

2. I am very pleased with the results tonight.

Even if things don't go well with the absentees, I am very happy with the participation in the race from our President and Sen. Gillibrand.

[mvd]

7. Same here

It will shut the stupid mainstream media up. Anyone want to place bets on if they'll now call it a loss for Steele?

[Rhiannon12866]

30. VP Biden and President Clinton also made robocalls for Scott, and Gen. Clark endorsed him...

Bill Clinton came here, in person, to campaign for Kirsten when she first ran in 2006. He was amazing, inspiring speaker, very charismatic, was a huge success, SRO at the local airport in our very red district... :patriot:

I got to see and hear him, something I'll always remember, and my SO went up front to take pix and got to shake the Big Dog's hand... :woohoo:

As for Tedisco, I know that Pat Boone and Rudy Giuliani made robocalls for him... No wonder it was so close! :rofl:

I was told that the absentee ballots had to be postmarked by the 30th. I helped folks get them for their kids who are away at school and those I spoke to (senior citizens) who voted absentee said they mailed them two weeks ago... We need every single vote... :hi:

[PBS Poll-435]

34. At least Sweeney is gone

:-)

[Rhiannon12866]

40. That's an excellent point, what a relief!

:woohoo:

I remember several years ago when The Post Star said that Sweeney could "have the job for life," if he wanted it... Yikes! He slithered in on the coattails of Gerry Solomon, so guess he felt that he had to be an embarrassment to us, too... x(

Sweeney was mentioned on "Hardball" last week, during a discussion of the current District 20 race. The Democratic strategist said that Sweeney was a wife beater and Tweety took exception, said it was "alleged," but the Dem replied that Sweeney's wife had said so... From appearing at drunken frat parties, to driving drunk with a 23-year-old on his lap, how low will this guy sink?! x(

[Nite Owl]

3. 32% turnout

which they are reporting as very high for a special election.

[Cash_thatswhatiwant]

5. Who should the absentees favor?

[PBS Poll-435]

8. That is a very tricky question

I have no freaking clue.

If I knew when the votes were cast it would be a lot easier.


It may break 50/50 down the middle. (That is the best result that we can hope for)

[Rhiannon12866]

14. Those I canvassed who sent in absentee ballots, here in the Glens Falls area,

Were mostly Republicans who voted for Murphy. They love Kirsten, here in the North Country, and Murphy stands with her on the issues people care about. Also, the absentee ballots had to be postmarked by yesterday, so they must have most of them by now... :-)

[Adelante]

20. The military has 13 days after the vote for receipt

So it won't be finished until 4/13.

[Renew Deal]

21. I doubt there's any military ballots coming in.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were none.

[Adelante]

22. Yeah, but they have to wait, in case nt

[Rhiannon12866]

28. We do have local folks serving in the military.

I just wonder if they're aware of the special election. I wouldn't imagine it's a top priority. They may have received absentee ballots if their families thought of it, but turnout is traditionally very low for this kind of election. But our efforts did pay off, since it was much higher than expected. :-)

I was thinking about this just today. On my way to headquarters, I passed a guy in full army gear packing a vehicle, looked like his girlfriend or wife was helping. It choked me up. It may not make the news, but people are still being sent, from here and from all over the country. ;(

[Rhiannon12866]

45. Here's the latest on the absentee ballots, Albany Times Union...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=8310254&mesg_id=8313885

[Happyhippychick]

9. What's that smell?

Oh yes. The smell of Republican meltdown in the morning, my favorite!

:rofl:

[NYC_SKP]

10. I like this "THREAD TWO" very much!

It's a bit calmer, more reasoned, nicely furnished.

So, who's got data on past results from Absentee ballots in NY 20?

:shrug:

[Liberal_in_LA]

12. me too!

[Rhiannon12866]

11. Governor Paterson's there and he just called Murphy "our new congressman..." :D n/t

[brooklynite]

13. Michael Steele...paging Michael Steele...

Please report to Human Resources...

[Cha]

15. Here's a buzzflash analysis..

"Gillibrand's House seat has no meaningful symbolism"

Submitted by Chad on Tue, 03/31/2009 - 2:46pm. Be-Elected
BE-ELECTED
by Chad Rubel

The MSM Beltway pundits love putting huge stakes on individual Congressional races. You can already hear the cries: "What will the results of NY-20 prove about feedback to Obama's economic program?"

Probably not a whole lot. NY-20 is the 20th Congressional District in New York, the seat needing to be filled when Kirsten Gillibrand went to the U.S. Senate.

In today's election, the major party candidates are Scott Murphy (D) and Jim Tedisco (R). Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall was on the ballot, but he was challenged by Republicans and is endorsing Murphy.

Tedisco is experienced while Murphy is the fresh face. As we have found out, Gillibrand is more of a moderate Democrat, so don't expect too much progressive talk in the campaign. Murphy is a Harvard-educated venture capitalist who says he'll join the moderate Blue Dog Democrats if elected.

Gillibrand is definitely taking sides in the race, producing robocalls for Murphy.

Symbolically, both the Democrats and the Republicans will try to paint this race in the best light for them, depending on who wins. The 5th Congressional District race in Illinois isn't likely to be as close, with Mike Quigley (D) the likely new representative. So this might be the Republicans' best chance for a long time.

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/election08/458

[Rhiannon12866]

16. Besides Kirsten, we also had VP Biden making robocalls for Scott.

And Gen. Clark has also endorsed him, not to mention the president! :woohoo:

Tedisco has both Pat Boone and Giuliani making robocalls for him. That sure should put him over the top! :rofl:

Thanks so much for posting this! :hi:

[Cha]

17. And, thank you for all this

inside information, Rhiannon..it makes it much more interesting!

:hi:

[Rhiannon12866]

24. You're more than welcome!

It means a lot to me because I've been there every day for the past two weeks, except for two days when I gashed my knee and kept thinking I was going to be sick... x(

I called countless folks from counties I've never visited, told them how to get absentee ballots for their kids, remained polite when people yelled and called me names, stuffed canvassing packets until I couldn't see straight, pounded the pavement myself for the last three days, fielded complaints (though most people were very nice, excited about Scott), almost got run over by a guy who hates Scott *sigh* (though a girl today had a woman threaten to blow her up... x(), spent time in a senior citizens residence, went door to door there and offered to drive them to the polls... It's been a long week. :hangover:

But you wouldn't believe the dedication of Scott's staff. These guys work night and day, printing, calling, analyzing data, scaring up volunteers, and things I probably don't even know about. I swear that there are several of them who don't sleep at all. I would be heartbroken if we didn't win, so I can't imagine how these guys would feel. ;(

And the most important thing is the candidate. He's a brilliant guy, graduated with honors from Harvard, but is also as nice as he seems, soft-spoken, pretty serious, and is thoughtful, stops by headquarters fairly often and makes it a point to speak to and thank everybody. He's the real thing. :D

I appreciate the opportunity to share all this. It's been exciting, but also exhausting. I could have gone to the "victory party," but didn't feel like driving 30 miles in the dark, and, besides, my little dog has missed me. :-)

[Cha]

35. Thank you for your dedication and

focus to help us all out in the very important 20th District of New York, Rhiannon.

It's peeps like you who helped us win in November:patriot::bounce::fistbump:

[Rhiannon12866]

43. This was actually my effort to make up for my disconnect in November...

After waiting for this for eight long years, I was going through a very painful time in the weeks before and after the election. I actually slept through election night. ;(

But I got a second chance when this special election was announced, spent pretty much everyday at Murphy headquarters doing whatever was needed, calling voters from all over the district, organizing the get-out-the-vote materials and pounded the pavement myself for the last three days. It was a wonderful opportunity to make a real difference... :bounce:

And it really was! Today a couple of the guys were complaining about a few voters who claimed to be sick, so didn't bother to vote. It's so close, they were lamenting that they didn't get those folks to the polls. I had one of those on my last canvassing effort, should have put her in my car and driven her, myself! I did offer rides to senior citizens, though, checked back with them, drove one, so they all made it to the polls. :D

I really tried to make a difference, but only time will tell... :shrug:

Thanks for the kind words. I'm so tired, but wasn't sure what to do with myself today. So I checked in at Murphy HQ... :D :hi: :fistbump:

[Lavender Brown]

19. All your hard work paid off

no matter what the outcome is. :toast:

[Rhiannon12866]

27. Thanks so much, but it sure was worth it...

Scott's a wonderful candidate, smart, sincere, and a nice person, too. He's going to do a terrific job for us, as he has with everything he's done in business. I have not heard the same about Tedisco, even from people who know him... ;) :hi:

[PopSixSquish]

18. This is Good, Very Good Indeed

Takes the wind out of the sails of the Republican bragging rights and puts the election off the front page. Murphy did a hell of a job coming from behind like that.

[Beacool]

23. According to the local news the election is too close to call.

As of 11 PM EST, Murphy was ahead by only 65 votes. It might come down to the absentee ballots and those won't be counted until April 13th.

[girl_interrupted]

25. Rhiannon12866 thank you so much for your hard work!

NY'er here too, really appreciate all you have done! Lets keep our fingers crossed, Murphy wins, once all the ballots are counted! I have a feeling he will.

[Beacool]

26. We'll see what happens.

His lead is too tiny at the moment. It could still go either way.

:-(

[Rhiannon12866]

29. No thanks necessary. It was a pleasure to be involved...

Who knows, the senior citizen who we drove to the polls today, told me on Sunday that she needed a ride, may have cast the deciding vote! :D

[lolamio]

31. I am happy on the national level that this election won't be settled for a few weeks, but..

I will be very unhappy if TEdisco ultimately takes it. His only interests are self-interests. It would be a shame for the people of NY20 if he becomes their Congressman. I really can't figure out what anyone who follows upstate local politics sees in him. He's a known grandstander and panderer. Yuck.

[ihavenobias]

32. Kick n/t

[Hope And Change]

33. K & R!

[bdamomma]

36. did Murphy get in???

[PBS Poll-435]

37. Ahead by 65 votes before the absentee ballots are counted

It could go either way.

[bdamomma]

39. as long as they don't pull a Coleman -Franken thing.

repigs are so dirty, they can only steal elections.

[Rhiannon12866]

42. We've heard that Tedisco filed a legal challenge even before the polls closed...

Al Franken was my first thought. Minnesota currently doesn't have equal representation in the Senate, and we have none at all in the House... :-(

[mvd]

38. So how is the M$M portraying the election today?

As usual, I have not watched them.

[Rhiannon12866]

41. Last night the local news said Murphy was leading by 59, this morning it was by 65,

But this afternoon when I stopped by Murphy HQ to find out if they knew anything more... and was told that Scott's lead had decreased to 25 :-(, but one staffer, whose opinion I respect, said that he believes that Murphy will ultimately win, the question is by how much or how little. :shrug:

I had hoped that we'd be euphoric after this was over, but it's evidently not over yet, and won't be for awhile... :-(

[Rhiannon12866]

44. Here's a link from the Albany Times Union from today...

Albany Times Union link on the absentee ballots:

It's up to absentees
First published in print: Thursday, April 2, 2009

<snip>
In the 20th, neither Tedisco nor Murphy can claim victory. The Republican State Committee has asked for the absentee ballots to be impounded until a judge can rule on how the ballots will be opened. State Supreme Court Justice James Brands of Dutchess County will consider the issue Monday and will decide when and how the Boards of Elections in the 10 counties that comprise the district may open absentee ballots.

Machine recanvassing began Wednesday.

As of Wednesday afternoon, 6,381 absentee ballots have been returned out of more than 10,000 sent, the state Board of Electionsaid. Of those, 170 are military and 875 are overseas ballots.

Absentee ballots must have been postmarked by March 30 and be received by Tuesday for regular absentee ballots, or April 13 for military and overseas ballots.

Tedisco pointed to Saratoga County, part of his Assembly district. According to unofficial results, Tedisco won Saratoga, 54 percent to 46 percent. The county Board of Elections also sent 2,581 absentee ballots, the highest number sent by any board in the district. Tedisco said he's also counting on the military vote, which typically leans Republican. Democrats say the geographic distribution of the ballots will keep Murphy ahead.
<snip>

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=786252