Dodd Falls Way Behind in New Poll (losing by 16 points to Repug, 33% job approval)

[jefferson_dem]

Dodd Falls Way Behind in New Poll

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) now trailing former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT), 50% to 34%, in the 2010 Senate race.

In two other match ups, Dodd trails both Sam Caligiuri (R), 41% to 37%, and loses to Tom Foley (R), 43% to 35%.

Key finding: Voters disapprove 58% to 33% of the job the Democratic incumbent is doing, his lowest approval rating ever.

Said pollster Douglas Schwartz: "A 33% job approval is unheard of for a 30-year incumbent, especially a Democrat in a blue state... Dodd's numbers among Democrats are especially devastating."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/04/02/dodd_falls_way_behind_in_new_poll.html

[ck4829]

1. Dodd is definitely fighting an uphill battle

Simmons is also very un-conservative, so it might be even worse.

From his Wikipedia page:

"Simmons is a member of various liberal/moderate Republican organizations such as The Republican Main Street Partnership, Republicans for Choice, The Republican Majority For Choice, Republicans for Environmental Protection and It's My Party Too. He was endorsed for re-election by Planned Parenthood. In 2003, he voted with the House Democrats to oppose Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act. The bill was passed by a large 281-142 majority on October 2, 2003."

[MADem]

2. "Countrywide Chris" is gonna have trouble. How can he shrug off getting

a preferred mortgage rate (obscenely so, too) in the context of his voting record.

I think he needs to step to the side--let Lamont run; he could probably win it.

[jefferson_dem]

3. I was sitting here thinking about viable alternatives to Dodd.

Lamont would work.

I don't see how Dodd recovers... Let's hope he does the right thing.

[bdamomma]

8. oh, Lamont should run again.

he probably would get in. That's a pretty good idea.

[Jennicut]

10. He does not want to last I heard. We have plenty of good Reps or the AG

[wisteria]

20. I think we need to be helping out Dodd, not trying to find weaker alternatives.

Lamont is too progressive and inexperienced. He would lose to a Republican. Is that what you want? We need to strongly back our Democratic candidates.

[MADem]

37. How? The guy's .... tainted. And if he isn't tainted, he's stupid.

Gee, duhhhh, I didn't KNOW I was getting an INCREDIBLY good deal on my mortgage, an UNHEARD-OF good deal...despite the committees I sit on in the Senate?

It just doesn't pass the smell test.

The best thing he could do for the party is to back away and throw all of his support and supporters towards the strongest player in the primary field.

I think you're forgetting that the last time Lamont ran, he came in second. The Republican came in third.

[ShortnFiery]

5. Excellent Idea: Lamont could win. Simmons is an old time "moderate republican" like

many I knew of in the 1970s, i.e., liberal on social issues while fiscally conservative. Hell! Simmons would fit in swimmingly with Evan Bayh's "New Democrat" coalition in the Senate. :crazy: Wow! Switching one's party no longer means that you have to change your ideology thanks to our new conservative democratic coalitions. You still can depend on supporting your Lord and Master - Corporate America. :thumbsdown:

[karynnj]

13. I wonder if seeing these results -if they match the internal polling he is likely to do -

won't lead him to announce he won't run. Otherwise, from the Democratic numbers, he will face the prospect of losing badly in a primary. Those numbers look bad enough that I doubt he can rehabilitate his image enough, even with the help of any powerful Democratic allies he could bring in.

That mortgage does look bad and the explanations have not been convincing.

[wisteria]

21. We do have time on our side and the AIG mess is fading away.

People have short attention spans.

[MADem]

35. I think he's a bit...hubris laden, to put it nicely. This guy thought he had a chance at

the Presidency, or at least an also-ran shot at VP. I mean, really.

I think Lamont oughta go for it. He's got the dough.

[karynnj]

40. Hubris-laden - now that's a very nice way of putting it

I suspect that it likely is hard for many Senators to fairly compare themselves to the Senators who really did have a chance. Part of it might be that it is based on things that are not tangible. Both Dodd and Biden likely saw themselves as the most qualified, experienced people in the run - and their resumes showed that. At one point it looked like 5 Senators (Kerry and Feingold being the other two who didn't run) on the SFRC were interested in running. Dodd's and Biden's resumes had real accomplishments that exceeded anything that Obama, Edwards or clinton had done, though Clinton's accomplishments were hard to measure. But, neither of them (or Richardson) really were able to project what people were looking for. Obama did as Kerry had in 2004. (After 8 years as VP, Biden may too)

As to VP, he shared with Biden the fact that he had a lost of experience on foreign policy, but unlike Biden's middle class background, Dodd was the son of a Senator. In addition, Biden was FAR better in the debates.

[MADem]

41. Biden will never be President. He's too old. He's only six years younger than

John McCain, after all. In eight years he'll have two years on JM, and the same "geezer" arguments will be trotted out by the opposing team.

[karynnj]

47. I agree, but I do think it possible that he might then

at least seem to have the ability needed -I agree that he will be seen as too old. I seriously doubt that any of the people who ran in 2000, 2004 or 2008 will be in contention - there will be someone, now pretty new that none of us are thinking of. Seven years is a very long time. For many it will be age - I was struck by John Kerry saying that running was the hardest thing physically that he had ever done in response to a question on the gaffes HRC, Obama and McCain had made. I don't think the Clintons would be up to it in 7 years.

[MADem]

52. When Clinton was a first term governor, I predicted he would be President.

I don't know why I thought so, it just came to me, and I said it. Plenty of people remembered me saying it, and consequently I got a rep amongst them as a political savant.

I don't know why I thought he could go the distance, it had to do with his ability to connect with people, I think. I was quite positive about the prediction at the time.

I'm not seeing anyone, yet. This last field will be too old, odds are. But then, I'm not looking very hard, either!

[karynnj]

56. I'm impressed

I don't think I saw anything of him that I remembered until around the time of the 1988 convention speech. Then there was a huge buildup. I also remember a NYT magazine cover story, but I don't remember the timing of it - but well after the time you are speaking of. I am impressed you saw it then.

Like you, I don't really see anyone that jumps out as remarkable yet.

[MADem]

60. I'm no genius, I just got lucky, I think. I thought Obama would go the distance, too--

however, I really didn't think it would be this soon.

And if, a few years back, you said to me "Vice President Joe Biden"....well, I would have .... guffawed.

Not that Joe's not a fine fellow, and smart, particularly on issues of foreign policy, it's just that he likes to chat ... a LOT.

[chimpymustgo]

42. That's perfect. Ned Lamont.

[Teaser]

4. Dodd is fried. Time to look at the menu

.

[wisteria]

22. Nonsense. n/t

[BlooInBloo]

6. THAT'S my good ol Connecticut electorate! WOOOT!!!!

Show us ONE MORE TIME how fucking stupid you are!

Some people thought that after re-electing Lieberman, CT had learned its lesson. But I'm please to say that *I* had faith in that wonderful, wonderful state! I just KNEW CT would be more than happy to step up to the stupid plate and hit another homerun!

WOOT!!! Go! Go! Go!

[Jennicut]

9. I know, don't remind me. Now we will be stuck with a Rethug as a Senator. I would rather

have a compromised Dodd any day. Hopefully he just decides to retire. We have some good Reps who could run like Chris Murphy or Joe Courtney.
CT is a complicated place. Its full of rich snooty suburbs, some rural country towns and very poor cities. No one is really all that conservative but there are an awful lot of people who call themselves "moderate". Simmons was a Rep before. He will just vote with the Rethugs. Snowe and Collins are more moderate then he is. Sigh. This really sucks but Dodd did it to himself. You can be in politics a long time and not make terrible mistakes like he did.

[Thrill]

7. He needs to do something big. Like Credit Card reform. To save himself

I just don't want to see a Repuke in that seat

[avaistheone1]

14. I agree, but no one in the Senate seems to have the moral courage to do it except for perhaps Bernie

Sanders. The rest of them don't seem to be bothered by the credit card companies extreme exploitation of Americans.

[avaistheone1]

15. deleted msg

[karynnj]

17. Even if doing that is insufficient to save him,

it would allow him to graciously step aside and have something like that to counter the image of sweetheart mortgages. It is stunning to think that 2 years ago, he was one of a few people fighting to be his party's nominee. It is startling to see how the political fortunes of people change so sharply in so little time. (look at Edwards and Richardson too).

[DevonRex]

27. I'm beginning to wonder about Conn. Are they getting more conservative?

If so, there might not be anything big Dodd can do that would please the majority there.

[Thrill]

29. I don't think so. Remember they just booted Shays. I think Dodd's been

his own worst enemy. The Countrywide stuff, AIG is in his state and the Repukes and MSM have succeeded at framing him as the guy behind allowing them to get those bonus. I think he can recover with CC Reform

[MADem]

43. Shays was a f ucking hypocrite. Being a consciencious objector is good enough for HIM, but

he's more than willing to continue to fund wars that OTHER KIDS fight!

That's not being a CO-it's being a craven, hypocritical chickenshit.

As for Dodd, it's not "framing" when the guy got an IMPOSSIBLY good deal from Countrywide. He KNEW. And if he didn't know, that doesn't say much for his judgment, now, does it? To say nothing of having an understanding of how his constituents live.

"Geez, I'm getting a mortgage rate that is miles away better than any of my friends and neighbors' deals! How lucky is that? And of course, they'll not expect a thing in return!!!!"

It just stinks. And he brought that stink on himself. I'm disinclined to feel pity for the guy, because he should have known better. What's that old adage? If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is?

[jefferson_dem]

11. AG Richard Blumenthal's name is being floated as a replacement.

Works for me.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0409/Dodds_numbers.html?showall

[wisteria]

25. Seems to me all you are interested in is getting rid of Dodd.

Anyone seems to work for you.

[MADem]

45. I wouldn't ascribe it to any personal animus on the part of JD.

Dodd is a weak link. He's tainted. That's borne out by the poll numbers. He will have a very hard time winning. He will probably lose, unless a shitload of DNC money is spent.

It might be better to put a fresh, untainted face up for grabs--someone with a bit of "reformer" about them, someone to excite and motivate the base. That can only happen if Dodd does the right thing and finds something else to do. However, these guys never want to give up "their" seat--look at Holy Joe. Their motto is "Hell no, we won't go." It's why Coleman is dragging his heels--he thinks that seat is "his," too.

[karynnj]

12. This is sad

I think that he got a bad rap on the provision to allow bonuses. His amendment was to control excesses that no legislation was previously controlling. He should have refused to make the change - or at least not changed it behind closed doors after the original vote. This would also have meant that he would not have stupidly lied about it. He should have seen that he was unusually vulnerable to the charges now made due to the incredible amount of money taken from AIG and the unexplained Countrywide mortgage. It fit that negative emerging pattern far too well - seeming to confirm it.

Still, it is sad to see a man, who did fight many good fights defined just by these actions. Dodd wrote and fought for the Family Leave Act, that became law early in the Clinton years, giving BC a needed early victory on a popular issue. He was with Kerry was one of the co-sponsors for Kennedy's and Hatch's SCHIP bill. He spoke eloquently on the "torture" bill, referencing his dad's role at Nuremberg. He was the loudest voice against the government spying on us, when he stood against FISA.

Looking at these numbers, if they match his internal numbers (and if he has polled, I bet he will), I would image that he will not run. If he does, I would hope that he would spend the remaining time fighting for real campaign finance reform to get the money out of politics. For his peers, he would have some standing reminding them that the need to raise the huge amount of money they have to raise continuously to stay in office has the ability to make even a progressive, well meaning Senator - which Dodd - Senator Kennedy's best friend in the Senate - was into the type of person he likely would have wanted to unseat.

It would be saddest if 29 years in the Senate is remembered mostly for these negatives.

[wisteria]

23. I agree . He has been made a scapegoat for people's anger. But,

we still have time and I intend to try and help save him. I am tired of seeing deserving and fair minded Dem's go down because they have been the victim of negative spin.

[karynnj]

26. I'm with you, but slightly more ambivalent

He is being made the scapegoat on the bonuses, but his answer that he, the chair of the banking committee, did not realize that he was getting a special deal on the mortgage is not convincing. Here, what may be happening is that the standards were abruptly raised to where they should always have been. Given the combination of the mortgage, the AIG contributions from top officials and the PAC, and the bonuses, it might be impossible to save him. One thing that makes it harder to understand why he didn't avoid even the appearance of taking favors is that his adult life included seeing a respected father censored by his peers in the Senate. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/24/us/politics/24dodd.html

His challenge if he doesn't step aside is to reintroduce himself and make people see he is the man they elected 29 years ago.

[wisteria]

31. It was all legal. Even Obama has a real estate deal with a Chicago donor

that he had to deal with during the election. Perks and favors to officials done legally. I don't like them at all but, it happens all the time. Sometimes you have to weigh the the good against the bad.

[karynnj]

38. True - and I think that is true of almost all officials that there is something

to point to. Also - I hope Dodd is re-elected. My concern is that the three (unrelated things) all do fit a pattern - which may not be true - that Dodd is in the pocket of the banking and insurance companies. It does not help that Leno even joked about it. (The thing is that these are major employers of people in CT - and is no different than Biden voting for the credit card companies or Rockefeller voting for the coal industry)

[MADem]

46. And that stunk to high heaven. It still stinks. Of course, it helps that

his "donor" is in jail, awaiting sentencing, and isn't really at the center of the "mortgage meltdown" crisis.

They keep delaying the sentencing, though....guess the fellah is cooperating with the Blago business.

[acmavm]

64. Scapegoat? The guy's been caught lying. Outright lying.

So, just because there's a 'D' after his name it's okay?

[BeyondGeography]

36. A lot of people in Connecticut think he was nuts to run for President as well

There's this whole "Dodd stopped working for us and became all about himself" narrative up there that is going to be hard for him to kill.

[Enrique]

48. it goes deeper than that one act

he along with a few other East Coast dems have a history of doing the bidding of their finance and insurance industry donors. This includes Lieberman, Schumer, and sad to say Biden.

This republican will certainly be worse, but at the same time I like to see someone pay a price for being a Wall Street shill.

[Hippo_Tron]

67. Much of Delaware's citizens are employed by credit card companies

When Schumer does Wall Street's bidding you could make the case that he's doing the work of the finance industry because New York is such a big state. When Biden does it, you have to take into consideration that he's simultaneously making sure his constituents have jobs.

[xchrom]

16. well i'll be -- who could have predicted that -- after the bonus gaffe?

of course voting for a republick party person -- is still voting against your interests -- but so was voting for dodd in this case.

we are well and truly spit roasted without getting kissed.

[wisteria]

24. Dodd actually saw what could have happened with no regulation over the bonuses and tried

to protect our interests. Yes he compromised, but at the request of our new administration. I think you misinterpreted good intentions on Dodd's part.

[Renew Deal]

18. So sad that Lieberman might outlast Dodd

:banghead:

[wisteria]

19. Dodd is really a good guy. Republicans are going after him with both guns loaded.

They hope to gain his seat with whatever lie or scare tactic they can think of.
John Kerry sent me an e-mail the other day asking that I consider helping his colleague Senator Dodd out with a little donation to help Dodd fight off the smears and lies. I know times are tight, but even $5.00 would help. Senator Dodd is really a good man and he deserves to be reelected. You may have an issue with some of his donations, but they were legal and necessary. As I have said before, our pols have to work within a bad system. We need to change the system, not let good people lose just because we don't care for some of those who contributed to Dodd's campaigns.

Here is the link. I am presently out of a job, but I want to see Dodd retain his seat. I don't even what to think about what would happen if a Republican won this, so I dug deep and sent him some of my change.

http://www.actblue.com/page/kerry4dodd

[karynnj]

28. I admire Senator Kerry's loyalty, but this was before the most recent poll

If these results are not an aberration and things don't change quickly in how he is viewed, I would think even peers who do see the good he has done might hope that he steps down. I will send a check to him if he is the Democratic nominee, because I agree he is better than the Republican. If there is to be a primary fight, I am not even sure who I am for.

I do agree that Dodd has over his career done many good things. In fact, in 2007 I was disappointed that he was so lackluster in various interviews, because having rejected Edwards, Clinton, and Richardson, I was concerned that if Obama couldn't convince enough people that he was ready, the only other choices were him and Biden. I had mixed feelings on Biden - on many issues he was great and he did well in the debates and talk shows, but even being from DE didn't excuse the bankruptcy bills and I really didn't like how he ran the SFRC as chair. Though far better on issues, I missed the graciousness that Lugar showed towards the members of the committee.

[wisteria]

30. I just received this yesterday. And, I hope it doesn't come to him stepping down.

I don't think he should do that. Actually, I don't think he has really done anything wrong here. He has become the victim of the media looking for blood and ratings and the Republican's wanting to take down a big Democrat- thus weakening the Finance committee and the Dem agenda.
People have moved on from the bonuses. I haven't heard much mention of them or the 90% tax rate since Obama nixed that idea. And, the Senate isn't even going to take up the matter for a while. I think before we make snap judgments here, we should take a wait and see attitude. Polls do go up and down.

[karynnj]

34. You are right that time will tell

That poll might be the low point reflecting that this was the big issue, but those numbers are awful. But, this is April and I think their primary is in August, if the schedule is like it was in 2006. That is NOT a huge amount of time for someone else to get in - and between now and November is not a really long time either. (Dodd is incredibly unlucky to be up this year rather than in 2004 or 2006. There are many people who feel that our leaders failed us on this economic crisis. But, many really smart people - in government and out - were completely wrong. Dodd chairing the Banking Committee is prominent on these issues.)

[karynnj]

51. Here is a D aily Kos Diary - where many CT people speak of many

good things he did in response to someone posting the same poll. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/2/715806/-CT-Sen:-Dodd-Screwed

[jefferson_dem]

32. DSCC Chair Menendez "Absolutely" Supports Dodd, Predicts Re-Election

DSCC Chair Menendez "Absolutely" Supports Dodd, Predicts Re-Election
By Eric Kleefeld - April 2, 2009, 1:04PM

The Hill reports that DSCC chairman Bob Menendez is fully standing behind Chris Dodd and predicts he'll be re-elected, despite the poll this morning showing Dodd behind Republican candidate Rob Simmons in a landslide:

Q: "Does the DSCC still support Chris whole-heartedly in light of these new numbers, and do they surprise you?"

Menendez: "Are you serious? Chris Dodd is going to be re-elected. He's a great senator."

Q: "So the DSCC still supports him all the way?"

Menendez: "Absolutely."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/dscc-chair-menendez-absolutely-supports-dodd-predicts-re-election.php

[Enrique]

50. I don't understand the question

what other position would the DSCC take other than supporting him?

[TeamJordan23]

33. He went on CNN and lied about his role in the AIG Bonuses and got busted for it.

He put himself in this position. He should not seek re-election.

[emilyg]

39. Correct.

[bigwillq]

44. I will not vote for Dodd in 2010.

Not sure who I will vote for, but it won't be Dodd. It's time for him to go.

[SuperTrouper]

49. Me neither and I predict Dodd will call it quits and allow

another Democrat to run...a Democrat like Susan Bysowicz, Joan Hartley or...AG Richard Blumenthal. We can knock out Joe Lieberman in 2012.

[fujiyama]

53. Dodd is actually pretty decent on a lot of issues

but AIG and Countrywide look like they might sink him.

He might be better off just retiring. It would be an embarrassing defeat.

[fujiyama]

54. Dodd is actually pretty decent on a lot of issues

but AIG and Countrywide look like they might sink him.

He might be better off just retiring. It would be an embarrassing defeat.

[Cali_Democrat]

55. Dodd should not seek reelection for the good of the party (nt)

[wisteria]

57. I think he should seek reelection for the good of the party and the party appears to agree with me.

"Democrats in Connecticut and Washington closed ranks Thursday behind embattled Sen. Chris Dodd..."

" Asked if there’s any chance of him not running next year, Dodd said: “No, I’m running. I’m running. OK?”

He added that no leaders in the Democratic Party have asked him to step aside.

Party leaders remain convinced that Dodd has hit his low water-mark with the AIG bonus controversy so fresh in voters’ minds, and they say his numbers are only bound to go back up once he begins campaigning in the state. Plus they hope that Simmons will face a bruising Senate primary between state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, which will be a boon to Dodd since he’s unlikely to face a primary challenger himself."


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/20825.html

Oh, and I fail to see how Senator Dodd stepping down would be good for our party. He is being scapegoated, railroaded and used by the media and the Republicans.

[ShadowLiberal]

58. This poll shows why it's time for Dodd to retire, he was already polling awful before the AIG mess

As much as I understand and can see what some mean that this is likely Dodd's low water mark because of the whole AIG mess that got blamed on him being so fresh in voters minds, the fact is Dodd's numbers were already horrible for an incumbent democrat in a deeply blue state.

Before hte AIG bonus mess Dodd was either tied with, or just barely ahead of some republicans they matched him up with, ahead by no more then 2 points, with his polling numbers in the low 40's. Any incumbent who's not at or past the 50 percent mark this early on is usually considered vulnerable, which makes Dodd's numbers even worse.

Dodd's likely not going to recover to being quite as 'high' as he was in the polls when he was still tied or just barely ahead of his potential republican opponents. Another reason why Dodd is in trouble is there's evidence that's 2010 could very well become an antincumbent year, in which incumbents of both parties are more vulnerable. I mean look at governors, there's several of both parties who's popularity is tanking like a bullet lately (like CA's repub governor, NY's dem governor).

For the good of his party Dodd should just retire in 2010 and let another democrat (who likely starts in a stronger position then Dodd would have been in) run for the senate in his state.

[wisteria]

59. Sorry, but I don't recall that he was polling badly before the AIG situation.

His poll numbers were fine then. Seems to me you already have another candidate in mind to replace him.

[bunkerbuster1]

61. I think he's been hung out to dry by Democrats, and that makes me furious.

I think this is payback for having the nerve to buck media companies last year on the telcom immunity legislation.

I think several prominent Senators who are now enjoying the lap of luxury as, oh, President, Vice President, and Secretary of State are at least complicit in this outrage.

I know, big picture important. Small picture not so much. Some decent guys get tossed out as sacrificial lambs in this business. It happens.

But I'm pissed. Anyone who wants to try talking me down is welcome.

[BlooInBloo]

62. Yup.

[bunkerbuster1]

63. eff this, I'm starting a new thread.

I'll have to frame it in a way that doesn't sound like an Obama-bashing troll, but I will get it up there.

[wisteria]

65. I would be interested in knowing what you have to say. n/t

[bunkerbuster1]

66. The thread, she is here...

and she is, how you say, falling like the stone...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x5382170

[Hippo_Tron]

68. He kind of dug his own grave by running for President

He's odds of getting the nomination were about as good as Kucinich's yet he did it anyway. His constituents probably got pissed off that he was basically the Senator from Iowa and not the Senator from Connecticut.