AP: Obama to Nominate Sampling Expert to Head Census (Republicans bitching already!)

[flpoljunkie]

By HOPE YEN
The Associated Press
Thursday, April 2, 2009; 1:37 PM

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama has chosen Robert M. Groves to be the next census director, turning to a professor who has clashed with Republicans over the use of statistical sampling to lead the high-stakes head count.

The White House will announce the selection of Groves later Thursday, a Commerce Department official told The Associated Press. The official demanded anonymity because the individual was not authorized to speak before the announcement.

Groves is a former Census Bureau associate director of statistical design, who served from 1990-92. He has spent decades researching ways to improve survey response rates. If confirmed by the Senate, he will take the helm less than a year before the decennial count, which has been beset by partisan bickering and will be used to apportion House seats and allocate billions in federal dollars.

House Republicans quickly expressed dismay Thursday over the selection of Groves, saying Obama's choice raised serious questions about an "ulterior political agenda."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/02/AR2009040201701.html

[WeDidIt]

1. TRANSLATION:

Republican Speak:

House Republicans quickly expressed dismay Thursday over the selection of Groves, saying Obama's choice raised serious questions about an "ulterior political agenda."

English:

We are terrified of an accurate count because if you count people who are normally not home we will lose our over representation.

[redqueen]

2. The irony of those ... people... complaining about an ulterior political agenda...

it's right up there with Newt criticizing anyone about Catholic values.

Or that airhead trying to claim that republicans tolerate dissent within their ranks.

[polichick]

3. "ulterior political agenda" - too funny for Republicans to mention this!

[phantom power]

4. The GOP has been living partly through gerrymandering.

A real census that shines a light on their redistricting games will be one more nail in the coffin. Probably a big nail.

[redqueen]

6. Isn't it true that the Dems have also been dependent on gerrymandering?

If, as seems to be the case, younger generations are increasingly liberal in ideology... then maybe we can finally let go of that outdated and unfair practice. I hope so.

[phantom power]

9. I am not aware of systematic Democratic gerrymandering...

which doesn't mean it's not happening. But there have been several blatant cases of bogus redistricting by GOP dominated state legislatures, and in off-census years as well.

I'm not sure there is any ironclad way to prevent it, regardless of who is doing it. Some kind of regulation on how and when district lines are drawn? Historically, my understanding is that there were unwritten traditions on redistricting, that were simply ignored in recent decades. Perhaps some rules need to be written down in law, if legislators are not mature enough to play fair.

[babylonsister]

5. What a bunch of obstructionist whiners. I can't stand them, especially

that creep McHenry, though there are plenty of creeps to go around.

[crimsonblue]

7. right....

because wanting to get an accurate count of the poor and homeless is obviously serving an ulterior political agenda. WTF?

[Igel]

10. But you don't get an "accurate count".

You get statistically valid estimates. They're different critters.

The estimates come with margins of error and confidence intervals. Statements like "this community has w blacks, x latinos, y asians, and z whites, with a margin of error of +/- 4% at the 95th confidence interval." In other words, there's a 5% chance that the margin of error is more than 4%.

But when you go to redistrict, when you allocate funds, when you do anything that relies on the census, you have neither margin of errors nor confidence intervals. "We'll draw the district to include this area, +/- 4%, 95% of the time" isn't something you'll ever hear. The error and uncertainty are suddenly rendered moot.

[ClarkUSA]

8. There are census worker positions still open, btw, making from $12-20/hr.

Statisticians will make even more (~ $81K).

What Republicans fear: The Obama government particularly wants bilingual, Spanish-speaking applicants. :D