Kramer - "The depression is over."

[Baikonour]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/04/jim-cramer-declares-the-d_n_183152.html

Videos at link.

On Thursday's episode of "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer declared that the depression is, well, over. No stranger to making bold statements about the stock market and the economy, Cramer delivered the news in his own inimitable style, unequivocally stating with gusto: "Right now, right here on this show -- I am pronouncing the Depression over."

And who does he credit for this turn around? As he wrote on bloggingstocks.com the same day, the credit lies with Obama.

"When became more market-focused, and the Fed took rates to zero and offered financing -- leverage to buy asset-backs -- and took mortgage rates down to record lows while homes lost huge percentages of their value, the fire caught. Lending started again. And the depression ended. I think it ended in the first week of March. I think that's what Doug Kass saw when he went bullish. I think I saw it when I realized that even if every financial went under and most companies canceled their dividends, we only had 1,000 points to drop, and you had to start buying. There just wasn't enough downside left. These are not disputed calls. Now the end of the depression has to be priced in."

[Liberalalltheway]

1. U see where his thinking is. Stocks are up but employment is down

he could give a damn about regular people.

[Baikonour]

3. He claims in the second video, on Morning Joe, that it's normal.

And that unemployment will catch up in the next 3-4 months.

He's still a lunatic.

[FreakinDJ]

6. All Economist claim Unemployment to be a "Lagging Indicator"

so actually while that might hurt guys like you and me the most - he is right

[JVS]

18. Lagging with respect to what?

People who don't work don't produce GDP. This would make employment a leading indicator of economic growth. On the other hand if you're talking about lagging with respect to the stock market, then indeed shitcanning the employees does improve the companies' balance sheets and make the companies more valuable to stockholders, so employment is a lagging indicator of stock market value. A major problem is that if unemployment becomes too big a problem, then aggregate demand goes down the toilet and reaches an new equlibrium with aggregate supply at a lower level of GDP. While small bumps in unemployment generally stabilize, a large shift could settle into at a much lower level.

[Teaser]

19. Here's how it works.

Near an economic bottom, companies begin pushing their existing (and reduced) workforce for more, and GDP is raised through increased productivity. However, this is unsustainable, given the strain it puts on work forces, and the demand for increased salaries, and eventually companies are forced to hire more. So production will tick up *before* associated increases in hiring, making employment a "lagging" indicator.

[Deja Q]

4. Actually, it'd be nice if he did give a damn about regular people.

Of course, we all know Cramer's a nut and another figure on the idiot box, so it's not like he has any credibility or anything tangible.

[high density]

7. What a nut he is

How can we start to recover when unemployment is 10% and growing? I'm not going to feel too optimistic until the job losses at least appear to be bottoming out.

[Pirate Smile]

8. Unemployment is a lagging indicator so it is going to be bad even after the economy starts

to turn around.

The recession started in December 2007 but the huge layoffs didn't begin until later. Companies have to see that the slow down isn't just a bad month or two or six before they start laying off employees. They will also wait to make sure demand is really back up before they start rehiring.

Don't yell at me for explaining what the economists mean when they say that unemployment is a lagging indicator to a recovery. I think they consider the stock market a leading indicator so it would show the beginning of a recovery (maybe).

[endersdragon]

12. :hands you a flame proof vest:

you might need it.

[Pirate Smile]

14. Thanks. Welcome to DU.

:)

[Deja Q]

2. Splendid! Unemployment will be back down to 4% by the end of the year !!!!!!!1!!!!!!11212214594554

:sarcasm:

[FreakinDJ]

5. I watched that show

wondering if Kramer is reacting to the embarrassment Stuart caused him, but he certainly has changed his tune as of late

[Demobrat]

9. Kramer has been wrong before.

And he's been a shill for Wall Street before too.

[ohheckyeah]

10. If all the people out shopping and eating lunch

out today is any indication I would agree that things are at least better.

[Nay]

13. I gotta say that the mall traffic here has REALLY picked up, and

lots of ppl are eating out again. Don't know whether it's any kind of real turnaround, because I don't see how it could be -- there's too much shit converging for us to just walk out of this mess because somebody ate out a few times, but hell.

[ohheckyeah]

16. I don't usually go into town on Saturday's so

I didn't know if the amount of traffic I was seeing was normal, but my mom who does live in the city said it was really heavy compared to what it has been. The restaurant had waiting lines for lunch. Of course some of that may have been due to us getting a break in the weather.

[kstewart33]

11. If you saw Jon Stewart's evisceration of the guy, you'll

take his pronouncement with belly-deep laughter.

The guy hasn't a clue.

The market has gone up; job loss has skyrocketed. They're in dreamland.

[RoyGBiv]

15. Oh god ...

We're really fucked now.

[jeanpalmer]

17. Last year he recommended buying Citigroup

at $11, saying Bush had saved the banking system with his bailouts. C is now trading at $2.85, after hitting a low of 97 cents.

Take it with a grain of salt.

[JayMusgrove]

20. Good point. Cramer is sometimes as clueless as a Republican. n/t

[Cash_thatswhatiwant]

21. Kramer cannot be trusted. I think he's just saying things now just to say them. nt

[rucky]

22. That's like giving a cancer patient a morphene drip...

then announcing he's cured.

[Iwillnevergiveup]

23. Jim Cramer

needs to go back on The Daily Show for another ass whippin'.

[SoCalDem]

24. Cramer was depressed when he thought the SEC might call on him, but

a few weeks have gone by. and no knock on the door, so he;s not depressed anymore..and JoeMika & Co, are showering him with lovies these days, so HIS depression is gone.. (he probably thought he might end up as bernie's cellmate, there for a few days )