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I think their schism (and, by the way, I think the Dems are headed for problems as well) will start not with the fundies, not with the greedheads, and no with the defense hawks. I think the problems will start with the Ron Paul neo-libertarian crowd; those who are both against the war and against some (not all) of the tenents of social conservatism, but who also want to abolish the IRS and about 90% of the Federal Government as we know it.
Here's the real problem that the GOP has: Paul only pulled down about 10% in many primaries, but his supporters represent the youngest, most energetic members of their party (read: the future). Some enterprising younger politician - sooner than later, I suspect - is going to take the baton from Ron Paul, loudly declare that the Republican party has sold out it's ideals, and then shear about 10% off the top of GOP support and take quite a few like minded indys with them. At this point, the right will have an analog to the Greens on the left. The difference will be that this small group is better organized and can fund raise with the best of them.
At that point, the greedheads will likely be forced to move toward the center to try to lure in independents. This means moving away from the fundies socially. That's where the real fun begins.
Don't get too happy, though. It's entirely possible that many on the left wing of our party -- many of whom are upset about war crimes prosecution (or lack therof) and the non-bailout of GM (and the potential loss of tens of thousands of UAW jobs), will be walking away as well.
I said before the election and I'll say again that we may see as many as 4 viable parties running slates in 2012, and the 2nd Obama administration may look more like a European coalition government than anything we've seen before.
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