Musical chairs are flying fast and furious in Illinois. Most significantly, Illinois AG Lisa Madigan seems to be moving closer to a gubernatorial bid. She says she's "a few more months away" from deciding whether to launch a bid.
This isn't a great surprise; she's been known for gubernatorial aspirations for a while. What's significant here is that she seems to be closing the door to a Senate run instead. Neither race looks like it'll be an open seat: Gov. Pat Quinn, who took over at Rod Blagojevich's impeachment, and Sen. Roland Burris, whose appointment led to Blago's ouster, both seem on course to run for 2010 re-election. The race for Senate would initially seem to present an easier target for Madigan, though, as Quinn is well-liked and Burris is in a little over his head.
But would it? The presence of a heavyweight like Madigan in the already-crowded Senate primary field would lead to an even more split field. In fact, it could be the one thing that may in fact save Burris. With treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and ex-Commerce Sec. Bill Daley in the race, Madigan would take one more slice of the labor and liberal votes in the race. If Burris maintained a fairly strong hold on the African-American bloc, despite his weaknesses he could conceivably win a primary against such a fractured field... and if a top-tier recruit like Mark Kirk were waiting in the wings for the GOP, a wounded Burris staggering into the general would be the one nightmare scenario in which Dems could lose this otherwise safe seat. With Madigan out, it's much less likely (although Giannoulias and Daley could still punch either other out... and that could be compounded if Rep. Jan Schakowsky were to get in, although her interest seemed contingent on a special election occurring that wouldn't require her to give up her safe House seat).
Instead, Madigan may have a clearer shot in a mano-a-womano primary fight against Quinn. This is especially since she brings her family connections to the table (she's the daughter of House speaker Michael Madigan). She'd also face an easier general election, as top-tier GOPers like Kirk seem more attracted to the senate race on the odd chance of facing Roland Burris. The only GOPer who's announced for governor right now is state senator Bill Brady (who finished third in the 2006 primary behind Judy Baar Topinka), although DuPage Co. state's attorney Joe Birkett (who was Topinka's running mate in 2006) seems likely to run.
As for Topinka herself (about the only GOPer besides Kirk who can play statewide), she seems to realize that both IL-Sen and IL-Gov are lost causes; she plans to run for one of the lower financial-related offices. She may be eyeing Comptroller, which may be vacated by 2004 senate candidate Dan Hynes, who has been strangely silent about both IL-Sen and IL-Gov and may instead be planning on taking over the AG seat left vacant by Madigan.
http://www.swingstateproject.com
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