NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Paterson, Gillibrand Both Still Lagging

[ccharles000]

Quinnipiac (4/1-5, registered voters, 2/10-15 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 18 (23)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 61 (55)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 29 (24)
Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33 (34)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (43)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (43)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 36 (37)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 40 (42)
Peter King (R): 28 (26)
(MoE: ±2.5%)

David Paterson, like Wall Street, seems to be searching for a bottom to his free-fall... and it doesn't look like he's found his yet. In February, Quinnipiac found that Paterson would get demolished in a Democratic primary matchup against Andrew Cuomo 55-23, a blowout by any standards. But now that same race has plunged even further, to a 61-18 gulf, to the extent that Cuomo would barely need a flick of his wrist to take out Paterson.

And while Paterson's favorability and approval ratings weren't terrible last time, they've bottomed out too. His favorability is at 27/55, while his approval rating is 28/60 (down from 45/41 in February). Not only do only 22% think he deserves to be re-elected (63% say no), but only 39% think he should even bother running in 2010, while 53% think he should announce now that he won't be running. These numbers -- especially the self-fulfilling prophecy built into that last set of numbers -- are just the type you don't recover from.

This poll also sees Paterson losing convincingly to Rudy Giuliani, a major change from the tied game seen in February. Giuliani, however, hasn't taken any visible steps toward running; Rudy is probably looking to jump in only if Cuomo doesn't get in, as this poll shows that Giuliani would be only a slightly bigger speed bump for Cuomo than Paterson would be. Speed bump honors instead seem likelier to fall to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, last seen running against Hillary Clinton in 2000. Lazio is exploring a candidacy and has been meeting with GOP powers-that-be upstate.

On the Senate side, Paterson's appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still struggling for name recognition, with a 24/11 favorable (with 64% still saying 'haven't heard enough'). She still trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (who has the advantage of being in the NYC media market) in a primary matchup, although it's much closer than in February. It's unclear, though, whether a matchup with McCarthy will ever happen; while McCarthy made the loudest noises at the outset, speculation lately has turned toward other NYC-area Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney. Given that Gillibrand, already noted for her fundraising prowess, just released numbers showing that she raised $2.3 million in the first quarter, she may not draw any primary challengers at all.


http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4729/nygov-nysen-paterson-gillibrand-both-still-lagging

[saltpoint]

1. Lots of good reasons to love New York, not least among them the

brawling barn-burner elbow-under-the-basket political scene.

These next couple years promise to be no exception.

[bluestateguy]

2. Carolyn McCarthy is a gnat who won't go away

nt

[hedgehog]

3. Here's one measure: I'm a New Yorker, and I can't remember Gillibrand's name.

It's early days of course, but she doesn't make much of an impression.

[SoCalDem]

4. I predict..Cuomo for Gov... "some republican" for senate

[madohioan]

5. Poor Paterson

His approval is below 20%. What he did to Caroline surely hurt him among women and men alike.

[WI_DEM]

6. Paterson screwed up his big chance royally. Cuomo is getting great publicity

and I think that Cuomo will win the primary if he runs and be elected governor. I also think the Dems will hold onto Senate seat no matter who is nominated in the end.