NY House Race: Absentee Ballot Distribution Appears to Favor Dem

[Undercurrent]

The New York State Board of Elections has a lot of data (.pdf) out on absentee ballots in the special election in that state's 20th Congressional District, which will be vital in breaking the virtual tie between Scott Murphy and Jim Tedisco.
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDSpecialUnofficialResults040609.pdf

One thing that seems fairly clear is that there tend to be a relatively higher proportion of absentee ballots returned in counties where Murphy performed well on election night. For example, Columbia County, where Murphy won 56.3 percent of the of the vote last week, accounted for 9.8 percent of ballots on election night, but accounts for 15.3 percent of absentees. Conversely, Saratoga County, which is a Tedisco stronghold, represented 36 percent of ballots on election night but only 27.2 percent of absentees:

If I simply apportion the absentee ballots based on the distribution of the election day vote in each county, I show Murphy gaining a net of 173 ballots during the absentee counting phase. In addition, as Michael Barone has noted, although a plurality of the absentee ballot returns are Republican, they are somewhat less Republican than registration in the district as a whole.

The absentee ballot counting process begins tomorrow. Murphy presently appears to lead by 83 votes, although the numbers have been fluctuating somewhat wildly. While nothing's for sure yet, things are starting to look a bit difficult for Tedisco; he may need some good news from one of the two counties that have yet to finish re-canvassing their results, or a lot of help from military absentee ballots (of which only about 200 were returned).

Also distribution table at Five Thirty Eight: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Abq_Sarah]

1. Anyone here live in that district?

It would be nice to hear from someone "on the ground" who has a feel for how it went.

[Cha]

3. We have DUer, Rhiannon, and she

was very optimistic when this was being discussed last week. She worked hard for Scott..thanks to her again!:patriot:

[PBS Poll-435]

6. Agreed 100%

Based on the margin, if Murphy wins, it will be because of one person: Rhiannon12866.

Quite simply, she rocks.

[Rhiannon12866]

8. The truth is that we just can't predict what it'll come down to...

Scott was ahead by only 59 votes on election night, 65 the next morning. I heard that it was a dead heat this afternoon, and that Tedisco was ahead by 97 votes, as of tonight. *sigh* It's terribly frustrating and I can't stand the suspense. x(

But it'll be far worse if Tedisco eeks it out, and we end up with the likes of him for the next two years, especially those of us in the North Country. Not only doesn't he care in the least about us, but he doesn't even live in the district. x(

We finally unseated John Sweeney in 2006, after years of trying, by electing Kirsten Gillibrand. We can't just turn back the clock. :-(

I tried to make a difference, but who knows? But if Scott wins by a single vote, it was the senior citizen that I made sure got to the polls... And if it's by two, it was also my mother, whom I convinced to vote Democratic for the second time in her life... ;)

[Nite Owl]

4. I do

No one really knows right now. There's been a lot of fundraising emails in my box, it will be fought and Murphy sees that. From my canvassing and calling I can't see how Tedisco won this. We did a lot of U's (unaffiliated) and I's and almost all were going Murphy. Turnout was very good. My neighbor is an election inspector and he said a elderly couple came in to vote and and said something to the effect that they have voted R all their lives but never again would they vote for a Republican. In my very red district Murphy lost by only 5 votes! (I'm in Saratoga County).
As far as the vote count, it's been going back and forth. Last I heard Murphy was ahead by 198 votes, then it was 83 votes and now Tedisco is ahead so who knows what number is correct at this point.

[Rhiannon12866]

10. I can't see a Tedisco win, either, and I have had the same experience as your neighbor.

There were a lot of Rs on my lists, both calling and canvassing, but I got very few who weren't supporting Scott. I also spent one whole day talking with senior citizens and they were in his corner (one 84-year-old man signed up to volunteer on election day :-) ), those who planned to go to the polls or had voted absentee. They're called "Gillibrand Republicans." She got overwhelming support in November and Scott is following in her footsteps. Granted, I live in his hometown, but I also called Otsego, Greene and Dutchess counties. The media is now calling this election a "referendum on Obama." Last I heard, Tedisco was ahead by 17 votes. I am so counting on this to change. *fingers crossed* :hi:

[Nite Owl]

11. Last bit of news I got

was that Tedisco was trying to have a whole bunch of votes not counted in Coumbia Cty because they were second homes. No looking to see where their taxes were paid they just want to discount them. Roger Stone is on his team. They will fight this all the way.

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/user/Hudson

http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6218/ny20-stone-snapped-in-clifton-park-withcaputo

[Cha]

2. This is encouraging..thanks, Undercurrent!

Hopefully Scott Murphy will be the next Congressman from New York, 20th District!

[PBS Poll-435]

5. So long, Teh Disco

:cry:

[Jennicut]

7. Hopefully those ballots pull him through. Its gonna be a tight one.

I just don't want another 5 month wait for an elected official to take office.

[Rhiannon12866]

9. Update: "Rechecks narrow Tedisco's advantage"

Decisive absentee ballot count begins today

By Jenny Lee-Adrian • Poughkeepsie Journal • April 8, 2009

The Dutchess County Board of Elections will begin counting absentee ballots today for the 20th Congressional District race.

Republican Jim Tedisco is ahead of Democrat Scott Murphy by 17 votes, according to unofficial election results as of Tuesday. Tedisco has 77,034 votes and Murphy has 77,017, the New York State Board of Elections said.

Monday, Tedisco was ahead by 97 votes. A recanvass of machine votes in Washington County changed the outcome and Saratoga County corrected a vote total for Tedisco, in which he gained 100 votes.

The race will ultimately be decided by absentee, affidavit, military and other paper ballots. Already, about 6,800 absentee ballots have returned out of about 10,000 that were sent out, according to the state board.

More:
http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/article/20090408/NEWS01/904080320

Unofficial election results by county
Murphy Tedisco

Columbia 8,449 6,560

Delaware 3,347 3,370

Dutchess 9,562 9,003

Essex* 1,269 1,026

Greene* 4,409 5,460

Otsego 1,001 1,052

Rensselaer 7,590 8,064

Saratoga 25,429 30,036

Warren 8,678 6,885

Washington 7,283 5,578

Totals 77,017 77,034

*Counties not done with recanvassing of machine votes. Results as of Tuesday afternoon.

Source: New York State Board of Elections